Yankees: Projecting contracts for NYY free agents during Winter Meetings

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Now that we know more about the Yankees’ budget and the way MLB is treating contracts, we’ve got new projections for the team’s free agents.

Since the curtain fell on the 2020 Yankees season, most of their free agency calculus has remained the same.

Masahiro Tanaka is still more likely to return than James Paxton. DJ LeMahieu is still the team’s top priority, though far from a slam dunk to return. And Brett Gardner could be back, but not at the cost of his now-voided option.

But though we knew this offseason would be slow as molasses, the reality of situation has been even more snooze-worthy than we imagined. And since the final out of the World Series, we’ve gotten precious few reports about what the Yankees’ top free agents are actually seeking in compensation.

Our projections have changed somewhat, though, since that initial date, as we’ve seen the financial market play out a little bit — for example, when we first evaluated James Paxton, we had no idea that MLB would deem Brad Hand unworthy of $10 million. $10 million!

So, without further ado, let’s try to get our ducks in a row here. What will it cost the Yankees to bring back their most prominent free agents?

First tidbit from the virtual Winter Meetings: yes, the Yankees have DJ LeMahieu as their priority and he wants to return. But I'm told it's "far from a slam dunk" he re-signs.

DJ is asking for 5-6 years at $20M+. The Yankees are staying at 4 as of now. That's the hold up
— Dan Federico (@DanJFederico) December 7, 2020

Projecting DJ LeMahieu’s Contract Details

4 years, $90 million

Nothing much seems to have changed on the DJ LeMahieu front over the first few weeks of the offseason, or the first 24-hour sprint of the Winter Meetings.

We know what he wants, and he’s going to want it until he either gets it, or bends. Five years. About $100 million. And it makes sense. And it might happen.

But at this point, I’m fairly confident the Yankees will not give LeMahieu five years of security through age 37. Not debating the merits of the act, but simply stating the most likely outcome. Seeing as both parties have the same priority, though, it’s starting to seem as if there will be a union at a slightly higher financial cost than the Yankees were originally comfortable with, but without a firm commitment to an extra year.

I wasn’t terribly confident in the Yankees extending themselves monetarily here either, until I heard Jack Curry detail the team’s pursuit of Gerrit Cole last offseason, a journey in which they apparently spent above their allotted budget once they’d decided Cole wasn’t getting away. I’m not sure I knew they, um, ever extended themselves past their internal projections.

Therefore, I bet they have LeMahieu pegged at four years and $80 million, and I bet they eventually climb to $90 million, potentially with an incentive-related fifth-year option.

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 07: Masahiro Tanaka #19 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the fourth inning in Game Three of the American League Division Series at PETCO Park on October 07, 2020 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

Projecting Masahiro Tanaka’s Contract Details

2 years, $30 million

It’s now beginning to seem as if Masahiro Tanaka will not have a terribly robust market, despite the lack of quality pitching options on the market.

Actually, it’s likely that, beyond Trevor Bauer, Tanaka will be neck and neck with Japanese import Tomoyuki Sugano for the most valued pitcher.

But just because it’s getting a little dusty in the pitching stockroom doesn’t mean Tanaka will be available for a song. Starting pitchers have been the only ones getting paid, even nominally, this offseason, and weaker, more projectable options like Drew Smyly have gotten the relative bag (a one year, $11 million deal).

We still foresee Tanaka getting multiple years of security, but no more than two, with a high likelihood that such a deal will ultimately wrap up his time in the United States. Considering Smyly has been determined to be worth $11 million annually, it’s clear starting pitchers aren’t getting demolished in the same way relievers are — after all, would you rather have Smyly or Hand?

Therefore, we’re going to project Playoff Tanaka to get two years at $15 million per season. Less than we likely expected in July, more than we likely anticipated in October. Odd offseason, and it’s only just beginning.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 20: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees in action against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on August 20, 2020 in New York City. The Rays defeated the Yankees 10-5. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Projecting James Paxton’s Contract Details

1 year, $12 million

Now, is that too rich for the Yankees’ blood? Somehow, Paxton has probably become the second-most-likely Yankee pitcher to return, slightly behind Tanaka and well behind Sonny Gray.

Even with the significant baked-in injury risk, is he that much riskier a proposition than Smyly, someone who didn’t pitch in the majors in 2017 or 2018? Paxton’s avoidance of Tommy John means that he’s still due a large sum this offseason, but, well…since he hasn’t had the surgery yet, he still may have the surgery in the coming years. And nobody’s going to want to pay for more than one year of the lefty while they’re still examining his arm like a ticking clock.

We projected a slight raise on the lefty starter baseline, but nothing significantly different than what was foreseen a month ago.

Projecting Brett Gardner’s Contract Details

1 year, $3.5 million (w/ incentives)

Brett Gardner’s declined club option was for $10 million, and it’s safe to say he won’t approach that total, especially with the Yankees.

Unfortunately, Gardy doesn’t seem to be any contender’s top priority. And does he really want to spend the final year or so of his career with, say, the Texas Rangers for a slight pay bump?

We still think all roads lead to Gardner in the Bronx until his retirement, and the Yankees eventually reunite with him after the LeMahieu chase has shaken out. $3.5 million or so sounds right, but the team may include some plate appearance incentives to seem less insulting.

Gary Sanchez #24 of the New York Yankees reacts while dropping a foul ball hit by Cavan Biggio #8 of the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Sahlen Field on September 08, 2020 in Buffalo, New York. The Blue Jays are the home team and are playing their home games in Buffalo due to the Canadian government’s policy on coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

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