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Evaluating Yankees’ chances to make Baseball Hall of Fame after 2021 ballot reveal

By Adam Weinrib |
NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 04: Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees reacts after the Yankees turned a double play to end the top of the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game Six of the 2009 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium on November 4, 2009 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 04: Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees reacts after the Yankees turned a double play to end the top of the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game Six of the 2009 MLB World Series at Yankee Stadium on November 4, 2009 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
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The New York Yankees are overloading the 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Some are longshots. Most are no-gos. But does anyone have a chance?

Yankees fans packed Cooperstown yet again in July 2020 to celebrate the induction of Derek Jet–I’m sorry? That got postponed? Massive global pandemic? Why is this the first I’m hearing of this?

Jeter will be enshrined among the game’s immortals next summer in 2021, alongside Rockies legend Larry Walker, ex-Cardinal and Brewer Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller, the man who helped empower the players to explore free agency.

But will anyone from the 2021 ballot join these fine folks? Last summer, we faced the prospect of a mega-induction next time around, with both classes mashed together like a Girl Talk B-Side. Now that the official ’21 ballot’s been released, though? Eh. Not so sure.

Of the first-time-appearing names, there’s no one who really stands out as a slam dunk. As much as we all enjoyed Shane Victorino’s pre-Red Sox days or Barry Zito’s guitar solos, they’re not getting elevated to immortality.

You also may have noticed that, thanks to the holdovers and imports, there are now a ton of Yankees swimming around in this pool.

So, will any of them make it soon? Do any Yanks have even a nominal shot at glory?

We’ve done our best to evaluate their odds, and…they’re not pretty. But as far as participation trophies go, appearing on the Hall ballot is a pretty good one!

Roger Clemens of the New York Yankees (Photo credit should read KATHY WILLENS/AFP via Getty Images)
Roger Clemens of the New York Yankees (Photo credit should read KATHY WILLENS/AFP via Getty Images) /

Yankees: Returning Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates

Roger Clemens: 65% Chance

Perhaps I’m bullish here, but I tend to believe that both Clemens and Bonds will eventually trend into the Hall after they’ve served their maximum amount of penance.

This is the second-to-last opportunity for both men to get elected and this is probably the weakest ballot they’ll ever be a part of. Of those who were left behind, only Omar Vizquel and Curt Schilling are close to leaping over the threshold, and Schilling presents a moral conundrum for those evaluating his Hall chances.

For me, I’d rather induct two players who thrived in an era pockmarked by overwhelming steroid abuse than vote for someone like Schilling who wants me hanged from a tree. This isn’t the year, but it’ll happen.

Gary Sheffield: 35% Chance

Sheffield, however, falls victim to the darker side of the Steroid Era. Like Sammy Sosa, most writers have no idea if he would’ve hit the type of numerical threshold necessary to be taken seriously as a candidate without the help of performance-enhancers. Sheff was a fearsome hitter, but the “500 home run” mark is all he really has to separate him from the “goods” and land him among the greats. Unless Cooperstown really opens up and, say, ushers Jeff Kent and Rafael Palmeiro in, this probably isn’t going to work out.

Add in Sheffield’s journeyman status, and you have a problem here.

NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 17: Former Yankees player Nick Swisher (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – JUNE 17: Former Yankees player Nick Swisher (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images) /

Yankees: Newcomer Baseball Hall of Fame Candidates

Nick Swisher, AJ Burnett: 0-to-5% Chance

No, we’re not going to seriously entertain the odds that Nick Swisher and AJ Burnett garner election into the Hall of Fame. But we are going to celebrate the fact that both men got the nod for the ballot, which did not have to happen. Not everyone who technically qualifies makes the ballot! Rafael Soriano didn’t! Remember him? Mr. Untuck!

Swisher and Burnett both became albatrosses (albatri?) by the end of their Yankees careers, but both were criminally fun at their peaks in 2009. That season, I’m convinced, does not happen without the infectious energy of both men.

Swisher, brought in to ride the pine in ’09, became an integral part of the roster when Xavier Nady suffered a season-ending injury. His joy was very well-advertised; select any ’09 regular season game at random, and you’d spot something that indicated Swisher was having a great time out there.

Burnett? He was far quieter about it, until the waning seconds of a walk-off win. Then, boom, there he was with a pie to the face.

Both men were very talented, and both men will probably ultimately be prouder of their World Series rings than this particular honor. But like Swish to the right-field Bleacher Creatures, we salute them.

LaTroy Hawkins: 0% Chance

Yeah, we’re not going to wax poetic in the same way about Hawkins. Nice man, solid reliever forever, barely a Yankee, glad he’s in the conversation!

New York Yankees legends Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
New York Yankees legends Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Yankees: The Special Hall of Fame Case of Andy Pettitte

Andy Pettitte: 55% Chance

Andy Pettitte has earned his own slide from me here. I believe that Pettitte deserves a spot in my personal Hall of Fame, which is unfortunately not something I’ve been granted by the board of directors to build. And for that I’m sorry.

For me, though, it seems the recent inductions of players like Harold Baines and more so Jack Morris have tipped the scales above 50-50 in favor of Pettitte getting enshrined eventually, though I doubt it’ll happen before several more cycles of the Veterans Committee for his era.

As time passes, legacy matters more. Advanced stats show Morris as a compiler, and someone whose numbers never matched his reputation for being a big-game ace; in fact, he only appeared in the postseason once in his prime, and his resume is buoyed by 1991 World Series Game 7 and…that’s pretty much it.

Pettitte, though, for his lack of spectacular regular season success, does have an actual laundry list of postseason accomplishments to match his reputation. 19 wins, 44 starts, a regular season-matching 3.85 ERA, and the victor in every single clincher during the team’s ’09 World Series run as a 37-year-old. And don’t discount Pettitte’s ’05 run with the Astros, too, as much as we’d like to forget that ever happened.

For the record, there’s nothing to be ashamed of about a 256-153 regular season record, either. From someone who believes Bernie Williams should be inducted, too, I heartily endorse Pettitte. But after looking in the mirror for a while, I truly do believe the baseball world will join me on this issue…in a few decades.

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