4 buy-low trade candidates Yankees should target for rotation

If the Yankees hit the trade market this offseason, they should aim for these buy-low targets.

We’re not saying the Yankees should go bargain hunting this offseason, but … you know they’re going to, right?

So, if the process is already under way, we might as well helpfully lay out the guidelines that could help the Yanks maximize their shopping.

The Yankees have made their hay over the past several years of the Brian Cashman Era by attempting to poach standouts from other teams with 1.5-2 years of control left on their contracts, as well as taking fringe prospects and spinning them into gold, like Gio Urshela and Luke Voit. But back in the day, the team used to be all about reclamation projects, and this offseason, there are plenty of players (OK, fine, pitchers) who could be on the market who feel like perfect fits for the team’s analytical approach.

We’re not guaranteeing that any of these four options will be slam-dunk superstars in the Bronx, but there are so many rotation spots that are wide open for 2021. Any one of these cheap options would greatly insure against disaster — and they’d all make better bullpen swingmen than anyone the Yanks currently have, in a worst-case scenario.

As soon as the World Series ends, it’s time to call up four rival GMs and get these conversations going.

4. Danny Duffy

The long-time Royal probably wants to stay in KC, but the Yankees could give the Royals no choice.

Danny Duffy’s always been an undervalued commodity, though he’s sort of woven himself into the fabric of the Royals over the past several years, making his departure a little tougher to envision than it would’ve been back in the day.

In 2017, Duffy declared himself “Forever Royal,” inking a five-year, $65 million deal to remain in KC at the tail end of their contention window. But forever only lasts so long, and we’re now entering the final year of Duffy’s contract at one of his lowest points.

In 2020, the lefty continued to post big strikeout numbers (57 in 56.1 innings pitched), but regressed in ERA (4.95) and FIP (4.75), posting a true-talent “meh” season according to the metrics. But in a world where the disastrous Robbie Ray is a big-time deadline target and talked about as a difference-maker, why can’t Duffy be someone who can help a team looking for a solid back-end starter who could be something more?

Duffy hasn’t posted an above-average campaign since 2017’s 9-10, 3.81 season, but he’s still just 32, and has been largely the same pitcher for a decade — a solid-velocity lefty with a wipeout breaking ball who hasn’t quite hit his ceiling. Entering his walk year, this is the cheapest he’s ever been and will ever be on the trade market. It’s probably time to pounce.

3. Josh Lindblom

The Brewers might want to dump this moderate contract on the Yankees.

The Milwaukee Brewers took a chance on signing KBO standout and MLB reclamation project Josh Lindblom last offseason to a three-year deal. Year 1 of that deal? Not great!

So does the middling Brew Crew really want to tough it out and hope for a Year 2 bounce-back? Or would they rather rid themselves of Lindblom’s contract (only $9.13 million over three years, but not nothin’ if you’re Milwaukee!)?

In 10 starts, Lindblom put up some solid peripherals — 42 hits in 45.1 innings pitched, and an impressive 52 whiffs. Also, only six homers and a 3.87 FIP! Pretty encouraging stuff! Somehow, though, his ERA was 5.16, which is relatively gross.

Hoping for a Merrill Kelly-like redemptive breakout, the Brewers instead got someone who underperformed his margins in a shortened, strange year, and the team only climbed to the eighth seed, about the most depressing spot you can be (just ask a Knicks fan).

Lindblom was much better than the numbers would suggest in 2020, and he’s the kind of a risk a team like the Yankees can afford to take, whereas the Brewers might prefer to focus his $3 million per year on their arbitration raises.

2. Yusei Kikuchi

You legally can’t do a Yankees trade list without including a Mariner.

Just about two years after the Yankees’ decision to import James Paxton from the Mariners for Justus Sheffield and a few ancillary pieces, it could be time to head back to that well to pick up another highlight name from a team that’s eternally rebuilding.

After two years (OK, 1.4 years), 29-year-old Yusei Kikuchi hasn’t hit his stride yet in MLB — but the surface numbers might be lying a bit about his 2020 impact. Entering the “final year” of his three-year deal, Kikuchi has several team options to mess with, all the way through 2025. The Mariners likely thought they’d be doing themselves a great service by embedding these, but then again…they are the Mariners. They love to deal.

And a team like the Yankees could be wooed by Kikuchi’s peripherals. Is a 5.17 ERA valuable from a volatile lefty? No. But what about a remarkable 3.30 FIP? Something tells us that, in a longer season than 60 games, those two figures would’ve normalized a bit, and that ERA would’ve dropped significantly. That’s one of the largest gaps between expected and actualized performance you’ll ever see.

Kikuchi is a high-strikeout lefty (47 Ks in 47.0 IP) who just posted what should’ve been a bounce-back second season, but instead registered another disappointing campaign. Maybe this is the Yanks’ shot.