Yankees: How a 60-Game Season Affects These Impending NYY Free Agents

LHP James Paxton & RHP Masahiro Tanaka

Where things really get interesting is with the starting rotation. Both James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are hitting the open market this winter. Ideally, the Yankees bring back both, as the two served important roles last year in the regular season and playoffs.

In his first season in the Bronx after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners, Paxton went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. “Big Maple” also tallied an impressive 186 K in 150.2 innings. In the postseason, Paxton took the mound for three starts, going 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 20 K in 13 innings. Although he didn’t make it past the fifth inning in his first two starts, he came up clutch in game five of the ALCS against the Astros, tallying nine Ks and just one earned run in six innings.

Tanaka made 31 starts and recorded a 4.45 ERA in his sixth season with the Yankees since coming over from Japan. Although he was selected to his second All-Star game in 2019, he didn’t have quite as good of a season as Paxton.

The Japanese right-hander had a career-worst K/9 (7.4) and WHIP (1.24). On the flip side, he tied his career high in games started (31) and recorded his second-highest innings pitched total (182). Additionally, he had another stellar showing in the playoffs, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings pitched.

With Paxton and Tanaka just five days apart in age — both set to enter their age-32 season in 2021 — it’s likely that the two will be looking for relatively big paydays as they rank among the top available starting pitchers in free agency.

Looking at the starting rotation moving forward for the Yankees, there are a few things we know for sure. The first is that Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino will head the unit for the foreseeable future. The second is that the club has several young arms under team control, such as Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, and top prospect Deivi Garcia (among others).

The Yankees clearly have options past this season, and although it would be great to retain both guys, it doesn’t seem very realistic financially. It’s hard to pinpoint what kind of contracts they’ll be able to haul in.

Hyun-Jin Ryu received a four-year, $80 million deal at age 33 after a year in which he led the league with a 2.37 ERA. For his career, Ryu has a 2.98 ERA in 125 starts and 740.1 IP.

Taking into account that Paxton has less mileage on his arm, coupled with the fact that it’s the first time he’s going to be a free agent, it would make sense for him to get the most lucrative contract he can. On the other hand, Tanaka has thrown more innings and suffered elbow damage a few years ago. He has also had less recent success than Paxton and has already made well over $100 million in his career.

Each have their own injury history, but considering Tanaka’s postseason track record and his potentially lower price tag, Cashman might be more inclined to get a deal done with him over Paxton if it comes to it.

Does that mean that they can only sign one? No, but with the payroll structure right now, it’s going to be tough to sign both when players like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez still aren’t under long-term deals and are set to hit free agency after the 2022 campaign.

A shortened season for any pitcher entering free agency can be looked at as a positive considering that they won’t tax their arm as much as they normally would. However, performance will undeniably be the biggest factor.

In the months of April and May, Paxton owns a 3.67 and 1.56 ERA, respectively, boding well for him to get off to a good start. In August, he has a 3.15 ERA, and in September, he has a 3.33 ERA. For him, the question remains his ability to stay healthy, especially coming off an injury that was going to put him out for the beginning of the year.

First 12 starts of 2019 (Paxton): 3.75 ERA, 78 K, 60.0 IP

Last 12 starts of 2019 (Paxton): 3.32 ERA, 78 K, 65.0 IP

In Tanaka’s career, he has a 3.42 ERA in April and 3.96 ERA in May. Meanwhile, he has a 3.30 ERA in August and a 3.76 ERA in September. For him, his inconsistency lies on a season-by-season basis, rather than month-by-month, though last season told a much different story.

First 12 starts of 2019 (Tanaka): 3.20 ERA, 65 K, 70.1 IP

Last 12 starts of 2019 (Tanaka): 5.26 ERA, 51 K, 65.0 IP