Yankees: How a 60-Game Season Affects These Impending NYY Free Agents

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The New York Yankees will potentially see four impact players hit the free agent market this winter.

It has been a very strange and disappointing 2020, to say the least. The MLB has become a mess as the owners and players were unable to come to an agreement for a season, leading commissioner Rob Manfred to step in and implement a 60-game season scheduled to start on July 23.

And that could be a problem for some impending free agents. With a season this short, players who get off to slow starts won’t have the luxury of figuring it out over the course of what is usually a 162-game slate. On the flip side, players who come out of the gates hot could luck out and inflate their value come negotiating time in November.

Players will earn a full year of service time, despite the season only coming out to about 37% of the usual length.

Nevertheless, general manager Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankees front office will have some tough decisions to make this coming offseason with these impending FAs.

OF Brett Gardner

Brett Gardner of the New York Yankees. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

The first of those offseason decisions for Cashman will once again be what to do with Brett Gardner, the team’s longest-tenured player. After hitting free agency following a career year in 2019, the Yankees brought Gardner back on a one-year, $10 million deal with a team option for 2021 (that has a $2.5 million buyout).

Last offseason, it was an easier decision to bring back the veteran for what will be his 13th year in Pinstripes. He had a career-high 28 HR and 74 RBI in his age-35 season, in addition to serving as a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder and finding himself in the lineup as a regular due to a plethora of injuries.

Another factor that made re-signing Gardner a rather easy one for the front office was the fact that Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge were both set to start 2020 on the injured list. Without them, the Yankees would’ve been rolling out an outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Tauchman, and Clint Frazier (before Stanton got hurt).

Barring any more injuries or trades between now and the start of 2021, the Yankees will still have all five of the aforementioned players healthy and under contract, so picking up Gardner’s $10 million option may not be worth it. Sure, the depth would be nice, but a 37-year-old at that price tag playing a position of surplus could inspire Cashman to use the money elsewhere.

In terms of what to expect from Gardner, it could be a tale of two halves. Throughout his career, Gardner has struggled early on in seasons. In April, he owns a .699 OPS, which ranks as his third-worst of any month. However, in May, that number shoots up to .812, the second-best of any month in his career.

If you look at the season in terms of the time period it’s being played, it could be a very rough one for the veteran. In the months of August and September, Gardner has an OPS of .673 and .698, respectively, the two worst marks of his career.

First 60 games of 2019: .217/.291/.415 – 9 HR, 23 RBI, 9 2B

Last 60 games of 2019: .272/.338/.594 – 16 HR, 38 RBI, 16 2B

DJ LeMahieu

After signing a two-year, $24 million deal prior to last season, DJ LeMahieu quickly became a fan-favorite and arguably the team’s MVP of the 2019 season. In his first year with the Bombers, LeMahieu hit .327 with a career-high 26 HR, 102 RBI, 33 doubles and a 136 OPS+.

The middle infield depth for the Yankees is especially thin following the departure of Didi Gregorius. With Gleyber Torres presumably making the switch to shortstop, the only other internal options for second base are Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada, both of whom have yet to prove their capability of being everyday players. In terms of free agents, there aren’t many viable candidates either.

Entering what will be his age-32 season, there’s no reason to believe LeMahieu can’t continue to produce from the leadoff spot in the Yankees highly potent lineup. Expect Cashman to make DJ a priority this winter, if not sooner.

How will LeMahieu fare in an abbreviated season? It’s safe to say that he’s practically slump-proof. In September, LeMahieu has an OPS of .749, his worst of any month. Meanwhile, in his best month, August, he owns an .802 OPS.

First 60 games of 2019: .314/.360/.459 – 7 HR, 41 RBI, 14 2B

Last 60 games of 2019: .321/.370/.538 – 14 HR, 38 RBI, 12 2B

LHP James Paxton & RHP Masahiro Tanaka

James Paxton of the New York Yankees. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Where things really get interesting is with the starting rotation. Both James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka are hitting the open market this winter. Ideally, the Yankees bring back both, as the two served important roles last year in the regular season and playoffs.

In his first season in the Bronx after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners, Paxton went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. “Big Maple” also tallied an impressive 186 K in 150.2 innings. In the postseason, Paxton took the mound for three starts, going 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA and 20 K in 13 innings. Although he didn’t make it past the fifth inning in his first two starts, he came up clutch in game five of the ALCS against the Astros, tallying nine Ks and just one earned run in six innings.

Tanaka made 31 starts and recorded a 4.45 ERA in his sixth season with the Yankees since coming over from Japan. Although he was selected to his second All-Star game in 2019, he didn’t have quite as good of a season as Paxton.

The Japanese right-hander had a career-worst K/9 (7.4) and WHIP (1.24). On the flip side, he tied his career high in games started (31) and recorded his second-highest innings pitched total (182). Additionally, he had another stellar showing in the playoffs, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings pitched.

With Paxton and Tanaka just five days apart in age — both set to enter their age-32 season in 2021 — it’s likely that the two will be looking for relatively big paydays as they rank among the top available starting pitchers in free agency.

Looking at the starting rotation moving forward for the Yankees, there are a few things we know for sure. The first is that Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino will head the unit for the foreseeable future. The second is that the club has several young arms under team control, such as Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German, and top prospect Deivi Garcia (among others).

The Yankees clearly have options past this season, and although it would be great to retain both guys, it doesn’t seem very realistic financially. It’s hard to pinpoint what kind of contracts they’ll be able to haul in.

Hyun-Jin Ryu received a four-year, $80 million deal at age 33 after a year in which he led the league with a 2.37 ERA. For his career, Ryu has a 2.98 ERA in 125 starts and 740.1 IP.

Taking into account that Paxton has less mileage on his arm, coupled with the fact that it’s the first time he’s going to be a free agent, it would make sense for him to get the most lucrative contract he can. On the other hand, Tanaka has thrown more innings and suffered elbow damage a few years ago. He has also had less recent success than Paxton and has already made well over $100 million in his career.

Each have their own injury history, but considering Tanaka’s postseason track record and his potentially lower price tag, Cashman might be more inclined to get a deal done with him over Paxton if it comes to it.

Does that mean that they can only sign one? No, but with the payroll structure right now, it’s going to be tough to sign both when players like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez still aren’t under long-term deals and are set to hit free agency after the 2022 campaign.

A shortened season for any pitcher entering free agency can be looked at as a positive considering that they won’t tax their arm as much as they normally would. However, performance will undeniably be the biggest factor.

In the months of April and May, Paxton owns a 3.67 and 1.56 ERA, respectively, boding well for him to get off to a good start. In August, he has a 3.15 ERA, and in September, he has a 3.33 ERA. For him, the question remains his ability to stay healthy, especially coming off an injury that was going to put him out for the beginning of the year.

First 12 starts of 2019 (Paxton): 3.75 ERA, 78 K, 60.0 IP

Last 12 starts of 2019 (Paxton): 3.32 ERA, 78 K, 65.0 IP

In Tanaka’s career, he has a 3.42 ERA in April and 3.96 ERA in May. Meanwhile, he has a 3.30 ERA in August and a 3.76 ERA in September. For him, his inconsistency lies on a season-by-season basis, rather than month-by-month, though last season told a much different story.

First 12 starts of 2019 (Tanaka): 3.20 ERA, 65 K, 70.1 IP

Last 12 starts of 2019 (Tanaka): 5.26 ERA, 51 K, 65.0 IP

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The New York Yankees will potentially see four impact players hit the free agent market this winter.

OF Brett Gardner

DJ LeMahieu

LHP James Paxton & RHP Masahiro Tanaka

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