Yankees: Predicting Which Free Agents Return in 2021

The New York Yankees have some complicated free agency decisions to make in 2020.

2021 offseason Yankees free agency talk has arrived at our doorstep, several months before we were ready to start discussing such things.

But with the 2020 season hanging in the balance (it’ll happen, if Rob Manfred wakes up in the next two weeks!), it’s unfortunately time to start examining those we may lose, as well as those we can afford to make a bet on during a pivotal offseason.

The Yankees must save money for arbitration raises and Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez’s possible extensions (they hit free agency after 2022), but if New York wants to contend in 2021 without pinning everything on rotation prospects, they’ll need to dole out some cash this offseason, too.

New York Yankees Free Agents 2021

The Yankees free agent after this season, alphabetically, are: Chad Bettis, Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Adam Warren. Gardy has a $10 million 2021 club option, which can be voided for $2.5 million. Zack Britton and Giancarlo Stanton can both opt out, but we suspect they will not, with baseball’s economic climate as uncertain as ever (Stanton would be insane to depart the Bronx now).

JA Happ has a vesting option he absolutely will not hit (165 innings pitched), so we can add him to the list as well.

https://twitter.com/snyyankees/status/1231335616916443137?s=20

So, without further ado, we’ll now separate these options into: returnees, departures, and a Wild Card rotation battle.

Returning Free Agents

DJ LeMahieu and Brett Gardner seem likely to return in 2021, as the 2020 campaign has changed everything.

Despite the fact that everything has changed over the course of 2020 in just five months, seemingly nothing has changed with the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu.

He’s still essential for everything this team wants to do in ’21 and beyond, and changes the entire complexion of New York’s lineup. Without LeMahieu, the Yankees’ lineup can be managed. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton can be navigated. They can be frustrated. They can be handled. With LeMahieu at the top, though, there’s always an agitating bat with an entirely different focus that the opposing pitcher has to deal with first. Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton are not “easy outs,” but they’re different hitters. LeMahieu pricking a pitcher’s balloon from the first pitch and ruining his confidence is uniquely valuable with the big boppers looming, and we saw it time and again last year.

The Yankees wouldn’t be the same without LeMahieu, and they realize that. Expect him to return.

As for Gardner, he’s continued to extend his career in single-year spurts these past few seasons in an effort to ride off into the sunset as a World Champion Yankee. He will not let his MLB career end with a work stoppage, and New York will be happy to pay him his option. He’s a similar agitator to LeMahieu, after all.

Departing Free Agents

The New York Yankees will have to let a few free agents walk in 2021.

All of New York’s certain departures next winter are at least somewhat ancillary. Chad Bettis and Adam Warren, both veteran options that the NYY extended an olive branch to either at the last moments of Spring Training or during his injury rehab last year, in Warren’s case, will both be replaced by similar shots in the dark next spring.

JA Happ, however, is the interesting case. He went from nearly guaranteed to return to New York in 2021 to likely the exact opposite scenario right now. His vesting option was assured, with Luis Severino and James Paxton’s injuries thinning the rotation significantly. Suddenly, Happ was the team’s No. 3 starter, and new pitching coach Matt Blake had to say all the right things about how excited he was to work with the whippy lefty.

2019 was not kind to Happ — after an exceptional sprint to the finish in 2018, his fastball became several levels flatter after his extension was signed. Happ posted a 4.91 ERA in ’19, lowered by an excellent September/October (1.65 ERA in four starts). If he’s not required to be on the roster in 2021 thanks to a previous agreement, though, we can’t see the Yankees taking a chance again on Happ’s age 38 season.

Adding Happ wouldn’t be importing a veteran “sure thing,” at this point. It would be adding an aging question mark. Their rotation money has to be split elsewhere.