Yankees: Predicting Which Free Agents Return in 2021

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The New York Yankees have some complicated free agency decisions to make in 2020.

2021 offseason Yankees free agency talk has arrived at our doorstep, several months before we were ready to start discussing such things.

But with the 2020 season hanging in the balance (it’ll happen, if Rob Manfred wakes up in the next two weeks!), it’s unfortunately time to start examining those we may lose, as well as those we can afford to make a bet on during a pivotal offseason.

The Yankees must save money for arbitration raises and Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez’s possible extensions (they hit free agency after 2022), but if New York wants to contend in 2021 without pinning everything on rotation prospects, they’ll need to dole out some cash this offseason, too.

Is an extension coming for Aaron Judge?#MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/WzLOSVAsuI
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 10, 2020

New York Yankees Free Agents 2021

The Yankees free agent after this season, alphabetically, are: Chad Bettis, Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and Adam Warren. Gardy has a $10 million 2021 club option, which can be voided for $2.5 million. Zack Britton and Giancarlo Stanton can both opt out, but we suspect they will not, with baseball’s economic climate as uncertain as ever (Stanton would be insane to depart the Bronx now).

JA Happ has a vesting option he absolutely will not hit (165 innings pitched), so we can add him to the list as well.

https://twitter.com/snyyankees/status/1231335616916443137?s=20

So, without further ado, we’ll now separate these options into: returnees, departures, and a Wild Card rotation battle.

Returning Free Agents

New York Yankees IF DJ LeMahieu (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

DJ LeMahieu and Brett Gardner seem likely to return in 2021, as the 2020 campaign has changed everything.

Despite the fact that everything has changed over the course of 2020 in just five months, seemingly nothing has changed with the Yankees and DJ LeMahieu.

He’s still essential for everything this team wants to do in ’21 and beyond, and changes the entire complexion of New York’s lineup. Without LeMahieu, the Yankees’ lineup can be managed. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton can be navigated. They can be frustrated. They can be handled. With LeMahieu at the top, though, there’s always an agitating bat with an entirely different focus that the opposing pitcher has to deal with first. Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton are not “easy outs,” but they’re different hitters. LeMahieu pricking a pitcher’s balloon from the first pitch and ruining his confidence is uniquely valuable with the big boppers looming, and we saw it time and again last year.

The Yankees wouldn’t be the same without LeMahieu, and they realize that. Expect him to return.

As for Gardner, he’s continued to extend his career in single-year spurts these past few seasons in an effort to ride off into the sunset as a World Champion Yankee. He will not let his MLB career end with a work stoppage, and New York will be happy to pay him his option. He’s a similar agitator to LeMahieu, after all.

Departing Free Agents

New York Yankees starter JA Happ (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

The New York Yankees will have to let a few free agents walk in 2021.

All of New York’s certain departures next winter are at least somewhat ancillary. Chad Bettis and Adam Warren, both veteran options that the NYY extended an olive branch to either at the last moments of Spring Training or during his injury rehab last year, in Warren’s case, will both be replaced by similar shots in the dark next spring.

JA Happ, however, is the interesting case. He went from nearly guaranteed to return to New York in 2021 to likely the exact opposite scenario right now. His vesting option was assured, with Luis Severino and James Paxton’s injuries thinning the rotation significantly. Suddenly, Happ was the team’s No. 3 starter, and new pitching coach Matt Blake had to say all the right things about how excited he was to work with the whippy lefty.

2019 was not kind to Happ — after an exceptional sprint to the finish in 2018, his fastball became several levels flatter after his extension was signed. Happ posted a 4.91 ERA in ’19, lowered by an excellent September/October (1.65 ERA in four starts). If he’s not required to be on the roster in 2021 thanks to a previous agreement, though, we can’t see the Yankees taking a chance again on Happ’s age 38 season.

Adding Happ wouldn’t be importing a veteran “sure thing,” at this point. It would be adding an aging question mark. Their rotation money has to be split elsewhere.

2021 Free Agent Rumors: Masahiro Tanaka vs. James Paxton

New York Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Will Masahiro Tanaka or James Paxton return as Yankees free agents in 2021?

Well, dang. This is one way to thin out a rotation.

Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton are near-identical in age; both men will be 32 this November, and seeking their final big free agency money of their careers. It’s disastrous for them, any way you spin it. We have no idea what this dead market will look like, and their bounties could be halved. If you thought ownership was loathe to pay big bucks for a 32-year-old pitcher last offseason, then what about in this climate?

Rumor has it that Tanaka is New York’s most likely starter to return in 2021, and we…tend to agree.

Which is a shame. Paxton, oft-injured, carved his place in Yankee history with a season-saving Game 5 ALCS performance last season. He even had an iconic moment to ride momentum-wise into 2020, rocking on the mound self-assured, barking back at Aaron Boone that he had things under control (exactly the way Boone wanted him to). Then, his back wrenched again. Surprise surgery for Paxton. More of the same.

The injury concerns are not going away. Meanwhile, Tanaka’s best trait has become reliability these past several years, as well as absolute postseason dominance. We didn’t see either one coming, necessarily, after his UCL problem in 2014 and his worsening gopher ball problem in regular season play.

We expect Tanaka will come cheaper, and the Yankees also know exactly what they’d be getting from a Tanaka deal. If Paxton wants to take a one-year discount, New York will welcome him back with open arms. After all, there isn’t a Clarke Schmidt for every rotation hole.

But if he plays the field and has a chance at a major payday, he’ll be gone. Tanaka will stay. Hopefully, we haven’t already seen Paxton in pinstripes for the final time. Empty stadium or packed October sky, we’d still love another shot to give him the appreciation he earned.

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