Yankees: Gerrit Cole will fare as well as other Yankees free agent splashes

The New York Yankees have been known to make a huge splash in the free-agent market snagging up quality talent, some of whom panned out while others folded under the bright lights of the Bronx.

On December 18th, 2019, Gerrit Cole stood on the podium wearing a pinstripe jersey with an interlocking NY, holding up a faded sign. On the sign were the words, “Yankee fan today, tomorrow, forever.” It was the same sign which he held up as a member of the crowd at Yankee Stadium, back before he was the richest pitcher in MLB history.

By displaying the sign, Cole depicted his understanding of what the pinstripes represent and the weight of the expectations that come along with it. The simplicity of the design does not represent the complex and storied history of the Yankees, one that leads fans to believe that every year is World Series or bust.

Coming off of career bests in wins (20), ERA (2.50), strikeouts per nine (13.8), innings pitched (212.1), and WHIP (0.90), Cole is expected to be the workhorse that the Yankees need at the front of their rotation. Duplicating those stats in New York, however, is a different animal, one that Cole has yet to face in his career.

Cole is not the first pitcher to accept the challenge of becoming the Yankees’ workhorse after signing as a prized free agent. Some have succeeded in doing so and others have failed miserably, leaving New York a different pitcher than when they entered.

Over the past 25 years, five pitchers have signed with the Yankees when they were considered coveted free agents. Among the five comes a mixed bag of results, with two having the success with the Yankees we hope Cole could emulate.

The Bad

In 1996, the Yankees signed lefty Kenny Rogers away from the Texas Rangers after he had posted a 17-7 record with a 3.38 ERA in 1995. Despite signing a four-year deal, Rogers would pitch just two seasons in pinstripes before being dealt away due to a 5.11 ERA in 52 starts. Despite the Yankees winning the 1996 World Series, Rogers had a 9.00 ERA, 12.00 ERA, and 22.50 ERA in the ALDS, ALCS, and World Series respectively.

Another talented pitcher that failed to pan out after signing with the Yankees is Carl Pavano. After racking up 18 wins for Florida in 2004, Pavano would sign a four-year deal with New York hoping to continue his domination. Despite the promise of the right-hander, Pavano would go 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA in 2005, and make just 9 combined starts over the next two seasons due to injuries.

The third and final pitcher who struggled to adjust to New York was A.J. Burnett. Coming off of an 18-win season in 2008 for Toronto, Burnett signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Yankees, but he never lived up to the price tag. Burnett never reached his 2008 win total, and despite helping the Yankees win the World Series in 2009, his 4.79 ERA over his three seasons in pinstripes is the highest among the five teams he pitched for.

The Good

Mike Mussina was never the pitcher who would steal the limelight or dominate for a full season, considering he only had below a 3.00 ERA in a full season once.  But once he signed his six-year, $88.5 million contract with the Yankees, Mussina would be a mainstay on the mound for the Bombers.

He tallied 123 wins and a 3.88 ERA over his eight seasons in New York and was a reliable pitcher both as a starter and in relief in the postseason. Most impressively, Mussina went 72-42 at Yankee Stadium in his career with a 3.64 ERA, proving that the righty could handle the pressure, something Yankees fans hope Cole can emulate.

During the 2008 offseason, Sabathia signed with the Yankees for seven years and $161 million, the richest contract for a pitcher at the time. After signing that contract, Sabathia would be a mainstay on the mound for the Yankees, pitching in 11 seasons and totaling a 3.81 ERA over his 306 starts.

Before his knee injuries started to add up in 2013, Sabathia posted under a 3.38 ERA in each of his first four seasons, winning a total of 74 games. He truly was the ace the Yankees needed at the time and was one of the main reasons New York was able to capture the World Series in 2009. Sabathia was a phenomenal pitcher for the Yankees and an even better leader in the clubhouse, a position which Cole will have to take on for the Yankees continually changing staff.

Based on Cole’s pedigree, I am led to believe that he will have a good career in the Bronx, similar to that of Sabathia. First off, Cole’s pitch repertoire is vastly superior to the other pitchers mentioned here. His velocity, amount of pitches, and depth on his breaking ball may only be matched by CC when he was still the young, fire-thrower we knew.

With a career ERA of 3.22 and a playoff ERA of 2.60, Cole has proven his ability to be consistent no matter the environment or situation he is put in. Cole is also durable, starting at least 32 games in each of the last three seasons. But the three statistics that truly measure the level of success Cole will have in the Bronx are home runs per nine innings, strikeouts per nine innings, and teams record in games started.

Cole has allowed less than one home run per nine over his career at 0.9, showing a prowess for keeping the ball in the park, something that is pivotal when you play in the small confines of Yankee Stadium. In addition to his ability to keep the ball in the park, Cole also fans an absurd amount of hitters per nine innings.

Last season, Cole struck out a career-best 13.8 batters per nine, moving his career mark up to 10.1. That mark is good for eighth all-time amongst pitchers, with Cole being the youngest hurler in the top ten.

The Yankees’ new ace also has benefited every team he has played for. Throughout his seven MLB seasons, Cole’s teams have had at least a .632 win percentage in five campaigns, proving that his presence on the mound generates wins for his ball club.

Gerrit Cole will have success in pinstripes. The question becomes more of how long will he maintain that success considering so many of his predecessors have seen a decline in their performance over their careers with the Yankees? Cole is a phenomenal talent and when it is all said and done, we will be looking at the $324 million the Yankees gave him as money well spent.