New York Yankees: Aaron Judge is not worthy of a long-term deal… yet

Aaron Judge has been the face of the Yankees ever since his breakout year in 2017. However, over the past couple of years, he’s struggled to stay healthy which begs the question of whether or not he deserves a long-term contract in the future to keep him in New York for many years to come?

Judge has undoubtedly been the biggest name in the Bronx since Derek Jeter retired in 2014. If anyone is going to be the next Yankees captain it’s Judge and it’s not even up for debate. He is the ultimate fan favorite and even has a section in Yankee Stadium named after him.

Like many of his teammates, unfortunately, Judge has seen his share of injuries over the last two seasons. He has appeared in only 214 games and has had several stints on the IL due to a fractured wrist in 2018 and a strained oblique a season ago. This spring he entered camp with a sore right shoulder and the specifics surrounding the injury are still somewhat unclear, but we do know he will more than likely start the season on the IL.

After avoiding arbitration this offseason and agreeing to an $8.5 million salary for the 2020 season, Judge still has two more seasons of arb-eligibility before he can become a free agent after the 2022 season. Brian Cashman will have to make a tough decision within the next few years on what to do with his All-Star right-fielder.

Judge may not see a long-term contract coming his way, but the Yankees will likely try to make sure that he is in a Yankee uniform well beyond the 2022 season. However, that does not mean a long-term extension. It may just be something a four or five-year pact that will keep him around into his mid-30s, but there is no guarantee he would take that contract.

He will be entering free agency when he is 30 years old, turning 31 in April 2023. Due to his age, Judge will be at a much larger disadvantage than someone like Mookie Betts or Christian Yelich, who is slated to sign a $200+ million contract extension with the Brewers. Yelich is just a few months older than Judge and has had two incredibly strong seasons with Milwaukee since being traded from Miami.

Yelich has also had a fairly healthy career, which is a key reason why he got such a lucrative contract. If Judge is ever going to get a long-term mega-deal from the Yankees he should have to play in more than 120 games a season because if he can’t offering him such a deal would come with a ton of risk.

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Even if Judge ends up having a relatively healthy 2020 season and can play in at least 125-130 games, Cashman should hold off on extending him and buying out his final two years of arbitration for the time being. The Yankees control him for two more years and should be sure that he will be able to maintain his health before they fully commit to him to the future.

Judge is a tremendous talent and an incredible athlete and leader. If he was consistently healthy, he’s a top-five player in the game and I would have no problem with giving him a long-term deal that would keep him in pinstripes for life.

However, the injury bug has plagued this Yankee team so much, especially to players with big contracts. Luis Severino, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton are the big names over the past several years of players who have had long-term deals and been affected by long-term injuries.

Cashman will have a tough decision to make over the next couple of years. As for now, he should hold off on a big extension for Judge.