Yankees: Luis Severino’s recurring forearm problem is extremely troubling

The Yankees have decided to shut down Luis Severino indefinitely due to recurring soreness in his forearm pending a further medical examination. If Sevy requires surgery or prolonged treatment, this could significantly hurt the team’s chances of making it to the World Series in 2020. 

There’s definitely cause for concern at Yankees camp right now because this is not the first time Sevy has experienced problems with his right arm before.

In May 2016 the Yankees placed him on the disabled list because of right triceps inflammation. He pitched rather poorly, finishing the season with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 5.83. The right-hander bounced back in 2017 and pitched a lot better during the season. He ended the year with a 14-6 record, 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 230 strikeouts, a 5.3 bWAR, and a 5.7 fWAR.

The Yanks named Sevy their opening day starter in 2018, and he did not disappoint. In addition to pitching well that day against the Toronto Blue Jays, he finished the first half of the season with a dominant 14-2 record, 144 strikeouts, and a 2.31 ERA. Most pitchers would be thrilled to finish an entire season with these numbers.

Not surprisingly, he was named to the 2018 MLB All-Star team, his second straight selection, and he was the leading candidate for winning the AL Cy Young Award at the season’s half-way point. He pitched less effectively during the second half of the season. He finished the season with 19 wins and 8 losses and a 3.39 ERA, still a very impressive record. For the second year in a row, he led all MLB pitchers with an average fastball velocity of 97.6 MPH.

Given his long-term potential, the Yanks wisely (and shrewdly) signed Severino to a four-year, $40 million contract extension on February 16th and included a club option for a fifth season at an additional $12.25 million. Unfortunately, just a couple of weeks later he was diagnosed with rotator cuff inflammation on his right shoulder, which put him out of action for the entire month of April.

He was then diagnosed with a Grade 2 lat muscle strain while rehabbing, forcing him to miss an additional six weeks. Unfortunately, in the end, the injury prevented him from returning until mid-September. He made three starts, and he finished the season with a 1-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. He made two more starts in the postseason, posting a 2.16 ERA in 8.1 IP.

More bad news

Sevy turned 26 earlier this week, but it wasn’t a great birthday because the Yankees shut him down from throwing. The right-hander reportedly started feeling a little soreness following his ALCS start in Game 3 against the Astros this past October. However, it wasn’t considered serious at that time. He’s now complaining that he feels the most soreness when he throws his changeup.

He recently had two MRIs and a CT scan, and none of the tests revealed any significant problems according to Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman. However, he does have a “loose body” in his pitching elbow. Manager Aaron Boone, who is understandably concerned, says that it is too early to know if Severino will be ready for the start of the 2020 regular season.

The major worry is that the soreness Severino is feeling in his forearm is far more serious. It is quite possible, and let’s hope that this is not the case, that the source of the problem is a damaged ligament in his right throwing elbow. There is a chance that a torn ligament is referring pain to his forearm and, unfortunately, must be corrected with Tommy John surgery. If this is the case, then Sevy will be out for a long time, anywhere between 12 and 18 months.

Entering spring training, the expectation was he would return to his All-Star form this season and be a second ace behind Gerrit Cole in the rotation. As the number two starter on the Yanks’ pitching staff, the team would suffer enormously if he experiences an extended absence.

More from Yanks Go Yard

• Yankees analyst Cameron Maybin projects surprise landing spot for Gary Sánchez
• Yankees swipe intriguing minor-league FA lefty flamethrower from Braves
• What does Carlos Rodón’s new jersey number mean for Domingo Germán?
• 3 lefty relievers Yankees can still sign without breaking the bank
• Red Sox living in different financial ‘galaxy’ than Yankees Killer Rafael Devers

Such a loss would be extremely difficult to make up, especially with Domingo German now unavailable for the first half of the 2020 season. He was 18-4 in 2019 and probably would have won 20 games had it not been for his suspension at the end of the year.

James Paxton, who pitched excellent towards the end of the season and in the ALCS against the Astros, is already going to begin the 2020 season on the IL following back surgery. He will be out of action for a while and may not be fully recovered until June.

While this is a time for legitimate concern, this is certainly not a time for the club to panic. The Yanks need to be patient and first find out what is really wrong with Sevy before taking any action, such as making a trade for another starter. The club was very smart to shut him down immediately rather than allowing him to pitch through his forearm discomfort.

If he is going to be out for a relatively short time, it would be prudent to first see how well Luis Cessa, Michael King, and Jonathan Loáisiga can throw and fill in for Severino. Before making any major moves, it also would be prudent for the Yanks to see how well Jordan Montgomery and J.A. Happ pitch at the outset in place of German and Paxton.

Thus, let’s hope for the best but strategically plan for the worst if Sevy is forced out of action for a considerable amount of time and his replacement is unable to fill his shoes in the rotation.

Too many pundits are already calling for a trade to bolster the Yanks’ starting rotation before all the facts are in. The best thing for Cashman and Boone to do is to first see whether other pitchers already on the club can successfully fill in for those out of action.