Yankees ALCS Game 2 report card; whose to blame?

Millions of Yankees fans felt a sinking feeling as they watched Carlos Correa hit a walk-off home run in Game 2 of the ALCS. As I saw the baseball land in the seats, I kept repeating the phrase, “we had them.”

Had it been foretold last week that the Yankees would earn a split in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS in Houston, the overwhelming majority of Yankee fans would have been thrilled. The idea of taking a 1-1 series back to New York was heaven on Earth for many fans.

Though this hope became a reality, the outcome has lost some of its grandeur, due in large part to how Game 2 was lost.

To quickly recap, the Astros jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the second inning after an RBI double by Carlos Correa. However, James Paxton limited the damage by striking out the following two batters.

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After Paxton was shaky to begin the third inning, Aaron Boone replaced him with Chad Green, who was on his game and kept the score 1-0. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge hit a two-run home run off of Justin Verlander to give the Yankees a 2-1 lead.

In the fifth inning, Boone brought in Adam Ottavino to face George Springer. Ottavino hung a slider, Springer hit it a mile, and we had a tie ballgame.

The Yankees knocked Verlander out of the game in the seventh inning while the bats for both teams went quiet. Then came the bottom of the 11th inning, when J.A Happ served up a leadoff, game-winning home run to Correa. 3-2, Astros win.

Many will blame manager Aaron Boone for Sunday’s 11-inning 3-2 loss at Minute Maid Park. To be clear, I do not believe that Boone managed a perfect game.

However, to pin this one solely on the second-year skipper would be folly. There’s plenty of blame to go around, and we’ll analyze each “culprit.”

Aaron Boone

Though I believe that most are going way too far in their criticism of Boone, there’s a degree of blame to be given to him. Let’s examine his Game 2 moves.

Lineup

There’s no valid criticism of the Game 2 lineup. Giancarlo Stanton was held out of the lineup due to a strained quad, so Cameron Maybin was a must-start.

Many have argued that Aaron Hicks shouldn’t be on the roster if he isn’t going to start, but I believe that including him was more of a Brian Cashman move than an Aaron Boone move.

Regardless, in a game begun by Justin Verlander, I have no problem giving the nod to Cameron Maybin (109 at-bats since August 3) over Aaron Hicks (no at-bats since August 3).

For anyone to argue that Austin Romine should be/should have been starting over Gary Sanchez, that’s simply not going to happen. Nor should it.

While Austin Romine is an outstanding backup catcher and had a career year offensively, he’s a career .239 hitter with 25 home runs and a .647 OPS across 368 games. A struggling Sanchez is still more of an offensive threat than Romine. Plus, his defense has vastly improved this year, his framing metrics are outstanding, and he has a cannon for an arm. You don’t sit Gary Sanchez.

James Paxton

Boone pulled James Paxton in the third inning after he had thrown just 51 pitches. Though this quick hook caused the Yankees to have to go to their bullpen much earlier than expected, it was the right call by Boone.

Paxton did not have his best stuff, and his command was off. Boone sensed an opportunity to keep the game close and pounced on it. Last year, Boone famously left starters Luis Severino and C.C. Sabathia in far too long, and Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS got out of hand quickly.

It was apparent that the Astros saw the ball well, and 3-0 against Verlander can feel like 10-0. Removing Paxton from the game gave the Yanks a chance to win.

Adam Ottavino

This is the move that is providing the most fuel to the “it’s all Boone’s fault” narrative. For the most part, I disagree with the move but there are legitimate reasons why Boone pulled Green. I’ll get to them before explaining my viewpoint:

• George Springer is an elite hitter against four-seam fastballs. In 2019, he hit .316 with 27 home runs, a .673 Slugging Percentage and 23.9 Whiff Percentage. Against breaking balls, he still hit .316 but with eight home runs, a .579 Slugging Percentage and a 32.2 Whiff Percentage.
• Chad Green throws four-seam fastballs about 77 percent of the time, compared to about 21 percent for sliders. Adam Ottavino features a more diverse arsenal consisting of a slider (45 percent), sinker (40 percent), cutter (14 percent) and four-seam fastball (1 percent). George Springer does not hit breaking balls as well as fastballs. Going into the game, he was 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in his career against Ottavino.
• Aaron Boone has confirmed that Game 4 will be a bullpen game. I suppose that he wanted to save Green to open on Wednesday. After 26 pitches in Game 2, Green will be able to do so. Would he have been able to if he reached 35-45 pitches on Sunday in addition to possible work in Game 3? Would J.A Happ or Luis Cessa have been a more popular choice among Yankee fans?

Due to the above, I do not believe that removing Chad Green was an unjustifiable, terrible move. It certainly worked out horribly, but Ottavino hung a slider. He’d have pitched in the game at some point, so what’s to say that he wouldn’t have hung a slider later on?

That being said, I would not have removed Green. Analytics work and they’re a big reason that the Yankees won 103 games. However, Green was electric and in command. The eye test must be used, if occasionally and sparingly. The eye test told me that Green should have been given a shot to finish the inning.

Adam Ottavino

Obviously, he’s partially to blame because he hung the slider that George Springer hit a mile to tie the contest. Ottavino probably should be demoted behind Tommy Kahnle, Chad Green, Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman in the ‘pen pecking order.

To say that Ottavino isn’t deserving of blame is foolhardy. But, he hasn’t pitched quite as poorly as some may think.

Going into Sunday’s game, the native New Yorker had pitched two scoreless innings in the playoffs with one coming against Minnesota and one coming against Houston. It just so happens that many will remember the two walks in the ALDS.

In September, his worst month, Ottavino pitched to an ERA slightly north of 3.00. So, to say that he has been “bad” lately simply isn’t true.

Phil Nevin

Man, was that play at the plate gut-wrenching. My first thought after seeing the action unfold was, “what are you thinking, Phil Nevin?”. However, after watching the replay, I’m convinced that sending D.J. LeMaheiu was absolutely the correct call.

The replay shows that when LeMaheiu is rounding third base, the ball had kicked off of Jose Altuve’s glove and Carlos Correa was nowhere to be seen. At that point, it looks like the ball is in the middle of nowhere with no one anywhere near it.

Of course, we know that Correa cleanly bare-handed the ball and fired a dart to home plate to nail LeMaheiu. However, everything needed to go right for the Astros to make that play. It just so happens that everything did go right, and the play was flawlessly executed.

Regardless, in that kind of a game, it’s vital to stealing a run whenever possible. Verlander was locked in and if that throw was slightly up the first baseline, there’s a good chance that the Yankees win 3-2. Gary Sanchez was on deck and at that point, he’d been struggling lately, to say the least. The Yanks took a reasonable chance and it simply did not work out.

The lineup

The lineup was the clear culprit in this loss. Although Paxton was off — although Aaron Boone pulled Green — although Ottavino gave up a home run — and although LeMahieu was thrown out at home plate, the Yankees knocked out Justin Verlander with the score 2-2 in the seventh inning.

When drawing up a strategy to beat Verlander at Minute Maid Park, it’s not reasonable to assume that you’ll be able to tattoo a plethora of mistakes for double-digit runs. You hope to build up his pitch count and knock him out early with the game close and that is precisely what transpired.

After LeMaheiu was thrown out to end the sixth inning, the Yankees did not collect a hit until Brett Gardner’s two-out single in the 11th inning. Edwin Encarnacion, Gardner, Sanchez, Gio Urshela and Didi Gregorius combined to go 2-for-22 with nine strikeouts.

Meanwhile, the Houston ‘pen, perceived by many to be the team’s Achilles Heel, collected 13 outs and allowed just one hit.

Though there weren’t many actual “scoring chances,” the Yanks nonetheless had the Astros right where they wanted them and failed to capitalize. The ‘pen kept them in the game by pitching 7.2 brilliant innings of relief. The offense fell asleep and that’s what prevented a 2-0 series lead.