Yankees: Predicting the postseason starting rotation and bullpen for the ALDS

Starting Rotation

Game 1: James Paxton

Prior to his last start of the season where he only pitched one inning, Paxton had gone 10-0 with a 2.25 ERA over his previous 10 starts. He left his last start on Friday due to tightness in his left glute but that was more for precautionary reasons and he said he doesn’t think it’s going to be an issue moving forward. If that’s the case I expect the Yankees are going to ride the hot hand and give him the start to open up the series on Friday.

He’s pitched like a true ace since the start of August and out of everyone in the Yankees rotation, he’s the guy who has the best chance of pitching deep into the later innings. This will be his first career postseason start, but I don’t think he’s going to get rattled on the big stage, especially pitching at home in Yankee Stadium where he went 7-3 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts during the regular season.

Game 2: Luis Severino

This is a tough call but I think the Yankees have seen enough from Severino since his return on September 17th to trust him with the ball in Game 2. In three starts and 12 innings pitched Sevy has looked sharp posting a 1.50 ERA with 17 K’s and a WHIP of 1.00. He’s still probably not stretched out enough to throw more than up to 90 pitches but his stuff has looked very good so he should be able to give the Yanks at least five innings.

That’s really all they’re hoping for from any started that’s not Paxton because the bullpen should be well-rested and ready to get 12-15 outs. Sevy struggled lightly in his postseason debut against the Twins during the 2017 AL Wild Card game, but he’s matured since then and that should only motivate him more to get some revenge and help the Yankees advance to the next round.

Game 3: Masahiro Tanaka

Despite Tanaka’s great postseason track record, there’s talk that the Yankees might opt to use him in relief of an opener like Chad Green during this ALDS. After he did that on Sunday for the first time in his career Tanaka said he’s confident he could succeed in that kind of role but I think the Yankees would be crazy not to give him a start and let him go for as long as he can. The Yankees probably won’t let him face any lineup a third time through the order but for those first four or five innings, Tanaka can be very effective.

Tanaka’s road numbers this year weren’t very good, but his 6.05 ERA is inflated because of two terrible starts, both against the Red Sox (one in London) where he combined to allow 18 earned runs. Against everyone else one the road, he had a more respectable 4.31 ERA. Tanaka’s home numbers were much better (3.10 ERA), but I don’t worry that much about him pitching on the road because he’s done it before in October and thrived multiple times.

He’s also the starter I think the Yankees trust the most pitching in another team’s ballpark during the playoffs because he’s always laser-focused on the task at hand. And if the Yankees split the first two games or somehow lost both Tanaka is the guy you want on the mound with the season on the line because he’s not going to fold under the pressure.

Update: Paxton will start Game 1, Tanaka in Game 2, Severino in Game 3