Yankees: A look ahead at 5 best free-agent starting pitchers in 2020

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Nearly all analyses of how far the Yankees will progress in the upcoming playoffs mention the team’s exceptional offensive power and stellar bullpen. However, they also correctly note how the club’s starting pitching has been unreliable, inconsistent, and often ineffective in 2019.

Acquiring two outstanding starting pitchers via free agency during the upcoming offseason would go a long way in not only guaranteeing another 100-plus wins in 2020 for the Yankees but will also make them a favorite to reach the playoffs and win next year’s World Series.

As we know, there were very few front-line starting pitchers available during this past trading period, and clubs that were actually willing to part with a star thrower were asking for the sun and the moon in return.

However, there will be an awesome free-agent starting pitching class for GM Brian Cashman from which to select two difference-maker starters during this winter.

The following list rank-orders the five best starting pitchers the Bombers must pursue during free agency to bolster their club in 2020 and beyond. While an unusually large number of candidates will be available during the offseason, only a select few have age, windup and ball release deception, ball movement, placement, a strong pitching track record (WAR – Wins Above Replacement), and valuable experience in the playoffs on their side.

As readers will be able to tell, the quality of pitchers ranked three, four, and five is lower than the quality of the pitchers who are ranked one and two on my list.

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5. Jake Odorizzi

Right-hander Jake Odorizzi will turn 30 in March 2020. He spent his first year of major league ball with the Kansas City Royals, then five years with the Tampa Bay Rays, and the last two years with the Minnesota Twins.

He has an overall won-loss record of 61-54 (.530%) and a 3.90 ERA during his time in the big leagues. His WAR in 2019 is 3.1 and is 12.8 over the span of his career.

This season turned out to be his breakout campaign. He is 14-6 (.700) with an ERA of 3.60 and 162 strikeouts in 147.1 innings pitched. He has only given up 16 home runs during this entire “homer crazy” year.

He has pitched consistently well throughout the entire 2019 season for the Twins — and although he doesn’t have any postseason experience, that is likely to change in a few weeks time.

While Odorizzi is not a No. 1 starter, he is certainly capable of being a solid number 2 or 3 shooter that the Yanks can count on game-in and game-out during the course of the season.

The Yankees will probably be comfortable offering him a multi-year deal given his age and the likelihood that he will at least maintain the same level of quality performance as this year over time.

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4. Madison Bumgarner

Left-hander Madison Bumgarner turned 30 last month and has spent his entire 11-year major league career with the San Francisco Giants. He has compiled a 119-91 (.567) won-loss record and a lifetime 3.11 ERA with the club. His WAR in 2019 is 2.5 and 32.5 over his career in the big leagues.

More than any other free-agent starter, Bumgarner is postseason battle-tested and has done extremely well pitching at the highest ceiling of competition. Overall, he is 8-3 (.727) with an impressive 2.11 ERA in postseason play.

Included in this number is his 4-0 record with a minuscule 0.25 ERA in World Series games. He was the MVP in both the 2014 NLCS and World Series contests. Indeed, he put in one of the most incredible World Series performances in 2014. Bumgarner has been a fierce and successful gladiator in the important battles he has fought.

Mad Bum would significantly elevate the Yankees starting rotation. This rural North Carolinian workhorse likely has a good number of outstanding pitching years left in his arm.

I would have ranked him higher; however, I am somewhat concerned about his recent display of bad temper and behavior on the field. Yet, a change of scenery in terms of geography, team, and league should improve his behavior, motivate him, and overall, do him a lot of good.

Unlike his recent years with the Giants, Bumgarner also would be pitching for a powerful offensive juggernaut, the Bronx Bombers. A modest drop in his level of performance over the last three seasons while playing for a struggling team and the unusually large size and high quality of the free-agent market could make him an affordable free agent. The Yanks could do a lot worse.

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3. Hyun-Jin Ryu

The Southpaw, Ryu, will be 33-years-old in March and has spent his entire six-year major league career with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a career 52-33 (.612) record and a lifetime ERA of 3.03. His WAR this year is an impressive 4.1 and is 12.5 overall as a Dodger.

Ryu has four very good pitches; a cutter, a slider, a change-up, and a fastball between 89-92, topping out at 95 mph. He mixes all four pitches well over the course of a game.

This year he is 12-5 (.706) and has an ERA of only 2.45. At one point, his ERA during 2019 was considerably lower. However, he has been in a rut lately and has had numerous poor outings (including one against the Yanks) on the mound recently.

Nonetheless, Ryu is still enjoying the best season of his career and was considered a serious contender for the NL Cy Young Award during the first half of the season.

Ryu does have postseason experience, albeit with mixed success. He is 2-1 in league postseason competition and 0-1 in World Series play.

The Yanks should be hesitant to offer Ryu a contract of more than three or four years. In addition to his age, Ryu has experienced several injuries while with the Dodgers that have placed him on the IL for various amounts of time.

In particular, in 2015 he underwent major left shoulder labrum surgery that kept him out for most of the season. Whether he would be willing to leave the Dodgers and the west coast is uncertain.

It will be interesting to see if the Dodgers are willing to sign him to a long-term, lucrative contract given the team’s need to also hold on to their top players over the next three years.

Furthermore, the team was not able to acquire significant bullpen help before this season’s trade deadline. They may feel that their money would be better spent on obtaining a lights-out closer and a second top tier reliever via free agency (or trade) given their already outstanding brood of starters and starting pitching prospects.

2. Stephen Strasburg

Recent reports indicate that Washington Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg is seriously considering opting out of the final four years and $100 million left on his contract. Admittedly, he also could leverage that possibility into obtaining a new, more lucrative deal with the Nats.

Unlike Odorizzi, Bumgarner, and Ryu, Strasburg is a big-time arm and a difference-maker. He would clearly be a No. 1 starter on most teams, including the Yankees.

He was selected by the Nationals with the first pick in the 2009 MLB draft and made his MLB debut in 2010. He tore a ligament in his right elbow a few months after joining Washington, had Tommy John surgery, followed by one year of rehabilitation, and rejoined the club in September 2011 — pitching only 24 innings before the season ended.

Strasburg bounced back and made the 2012 NL All-Star team. He led the NL in strikeouts in 2014, and his average fastball has consistently been between 95 and 96 mph since the surgery.

The right-handed Strasburg just turned 31 in July and has spent his entire 10-year major league career with Washington. He has an overall 110-58 (.655) won-lost record and a career ERA of 3.19. Most impressively, he has struck out 1,666 batters in 1,414.2 innings.

This year, he is 16-6 (.727) with an ERA of 3.50. He has struck out 222 hitters in 185 innings pitched; he is one of only a very small number of starting pitchers to strikeout over 10 batters per nine innings.

He also has a ground ball rate over 50 percent in 2019, an advantage to pitching in Yankee Stadium. His WAR this year is an eye-popping 5.3 (and 31.6 for his career), and he has pitched in three NLDS games.

If Strasburg does indeed opt-out of his contract with the Nats, it would be a no brainer for the Bombers to aggressively pursue him. Such opportunities come along very seldom and must be pursued by the Yanks if they hope to continue their team dominance over time.

He will not come cheap, of course, but Strasburg is certainly worth a long-term, lucrative contract given his outstanding record and likelihood of continued success.

1. Gerrit Cole

What Brian Cashman would most like to see under his Christmas tree this holiday season is a signed, multi-year contract with right-hander Gerrit Cole. Both Strasburg and Cole are No. 1 starters — difference makers and are much more valuable than Odorizzi, Bumgarner, and Ryu.

However, I rank Cole slightly ahead of Strasburg because of age, long-term potential, and other considerations.

Ironically, Cole was initially selected in the first round (28th pick) of the MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school by the Yankees in 2008. However, he decided to attend the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) on an athletic scholarship and play college baseball instead. This was a difficult decision for him since both he and his father are lifelong Yankees fans.

The Pittsburgh Pirates made Cole their first overall selection in the 2011 MLB draft, and he made his MLB debut in 2013. The Pirates traded Cole to the Houston Astros during the 2017-18 offseason. He just turned 29 (on September 8), and is two years younger than Strasburg.