Yankees: What do the analytics say about Domingo German?

Domingo German earned his MLB-leading ninth win of the season after the Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 11-4 on Tuesday. Now that we have a decent sample size of his 2019 performance so far, we can fairly evaluate why German has been so filthy through the first quarter of the season.

When the Yankees acquired Domingo German back in 2014, he was a 22-year-old pitching prospect on the Miami Marlins who went on to miss the entire 2015 season due to Tommy John Surgery. After a positive but brief debut in 2017, his 2018 performance was volatile as he posted an ERA of 5.57. He’s made impressive strides in 2019, so much so that some are hailing him as the staffs new ace while Luis Severino and James Paxton sit on the IL.

German’s statistics make him a strong case for an unexpected All-Star appearance this summer. Through 55.1 innings, German is now 9-1 with a 2.60 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts. Yankees manager Aaron Boone proudly praised German for his performance this season after the Yankees 11-4 win on Tuesday against the Orioles.

"“He’s been huge, no question. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the league, period,” Aaron Boone said. “At a time when we’ve had Sevy out, Paxton is missing some time, CC (Sabathia) to start the season. To have him really do what he’s been able to do to this point has been huge for us.”"

German’s inconsistency in 2018 may have made some Yankees fan uneasy with him returning to the starting rotation. However, his adjustments over the offseason and Spring Training are clearly showing positive results, so what is it that he’s changed up?

I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics, so I will refrain from commenting on that. What I can do is identify some critical sabermetric trends that display distinct differences from his 2018 performance.

Sabermetrics show progression in German’s pitches

Good pitchers throw good quality pitches; it’s not rocket science. What we’ve seen in 2019 is an enhancement to German’s four-pitch repertoire. In short, his command has improved, he’s generating more swings and misses, and he’s inducing more ground ball and pop-up outs.

German’s four-seamer is finding the strike zone more often

The pitch that separates German from most starting pitchers in the league is his fastball. Among all major league pitchers that have thrown at least 250 pitches in 2019, German ranks 50th in spin rate on his fastball with 2,428 revolutions per minute (RPM). The only members on the Yankees that rank higher than German are closer Aroldis Chapman (2,492 RPM), Jonathan Loaisiga (2,450 RPM), and Chad Green (2,438 RPM).

Compared to German’s 2018 (2,498 RPM), the spin rate on his fastball has decreased in 2019. Despite the decrease in RPM, he’s throwing it slightly more (29.9% in 2018, 34.3% in 2019) and he’s throwing it in the strike zone more often (52.3% in 2018, 55.3% in 2019). One can assume these trends mean by reducing the spin rate on his fastball German has increased the command of his four-seamer.

His sinker is inducing more ground balls

Establishing control of the four-seamer is vital for German, but what makes it more deceptive is the sinker he throws with just as much velocity (93.5 MPH 4-Seam Fastball, 94.1 MPH Sinker) and a higher spin rate (2,467).

Compared to 2018, German isn’t throwing his sinker as often (17.6% in 2018, 11.6% in 2019), but this could be beneficial. Hitters could be expecting a four-seam fastball more often, so that could explain why we see a significant increase in groundball outs against German’s sinking fastball.

His ground ball rate in 2019 (71.4%) is well above his 2018 ground ball rate of (54.2%) in 2018. Along with the improvement of his fastball and sinker, German is also showing more confidence and effectiveness with his changeup.

His changeup is inducing more pop-ups

It’s a well-known fact that having a good fastball and decent offspeed pitch is a problematic duo for hitters. An improved changeup has been a key to German’s success in 2019. The spin rate on his changeup has increased from 2,392 RPM in 2018 to 2,437 RPM in 2019. German is also throwing the change slightly more often (16.3% in 2018, 17.5% in 2019, but more importantly, he’s making batters hit more infield fly balls against it (5.9% in 2018, 16.7% in 2019).

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In 2018, German threw his change in the strike zone the most out of all his pitches (61.9%), but in 2018, only his sinker (41.9%) is thrown out of the strike zone more often than his change (44.6). German’s changeup has improved like his fastball and sinker, but I think his real bread and butter pitch is his curveball.

Curveball

The curve has been German’s favorite pitch over the last two years. The difference is batters are swinging and missing on the pitch more often in 2019 (44.9%) than in 2018 (41.3%).

It’s also thrown in the zone more often (44% in 2018, 45.6% in 2019), located on the edge of the strike zone more often (38.2% in 2018, 42.6% in 2019), and chased outside of the strike zone more often (35.8% in 2018, 40.5% 2019). It’s also no surprise hitters are chasing and missing his curve more often (61.3% in 2018, 70% in 2019).

Is Domingo German the new ace for the Yankees

I wouldn’t say German is the Yankees new ace just because he’s gone on a lovely run to being 2019. German is merely stepping up in a time of need, and he’s happy to have the opportunity to show the baseball world and Yankees fans how great he can be.

"“Many pitchers have been out of the starting rotation and I feel that I have given an opportunity, to help the team and I have been doing that,” German said through team interpreter Marlon Abreu. “Anytime you contributed, you are going to feel good about that.”"

At a time where we don’t know for sure when Luis Severino will be back for the Yankees, German has filled the void. With J.A. Happ showing regression compared to his 2018, German has given us hope for the depth of the Yankees pitching staff.

While the Yankees may be tempted to turn to find a new pitcher like Mike Minor or Trevor Bauer, they should feel confident every time German hits the mound.