Yankees: Why Trevor Bauer would be a risky addition

As contenders in 2019, the Yankees will be in the market to acquire another starting pitcher before the trade deadline. With the championship window closing for the Cleveland Indians, we could see ‘Trevor Bauer to the Yankees’ rumors spark up once again. After reviewing his sabermetrics, I have an argument for why the Yankees should pass on him.

At his best, Yankees potential trade target and current Cleveland Indians pitcher, Trevor Bauer is a bonafide Cy Young candidate. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was in 2018. Part of me believes he is a risk worth investing in, but I’d be comfortable with New York passing on him.

The Yankees have been relying on their farm system to fill in for their injured starting pitchers. At some point, they will have to seriously consider adding a front of the line type of pitcher from a team looking to rebuild. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Cleveland is on pace to become sellers near the trade deadline. The sudden emergence of the Minnesota Twins as contenders may have the Indians front office convinced it’s time to rebuild.

"They will not keep throwing prospects and tight funds at a pipe dream to avoid repeating the Tigers’ path from serial contenders to punching bags. Thus, even if their record is somewhat inflated by their divisional competition, they will not hesitate to trade, say, Trevor Bauer, Brad Hand or Carlos Santana if it sets them up to shorten any period of retooling."

Before I explain why I believe Bauer could be an example of fools gold, I’d like to point out that there are plenty of arguments for why he would enhance the Yankees pitching staff. Joe Giglio of NJ Advance Media for NJ.com mentioned in his recent article that power pitchers who don’t pitch to contact have more success during the postseason.

Also, considering the durability concerns for the Yankees pitching staff, adding another quality arm would be a significant plus. Unfortunately, there’s a chance Bauer could end up performing like Sonny Gray in pinstripes.

The slider is a Yankees staple and a weakness for Bauer

An unfavorable sabermetric linked to Bauer is an increased barrel percentage against his fastballs, changeups, and sliders. I’m mostly concerned with the poor performance of his slider because data collected over the years proves the Yankees prefer for their pitchers to utilize their slider more often.

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According to Baseball Savant, compared to 2018, the barrel percentage for Bauer’s slider has drastically increased from 1.9% to 19% so far in 2019! As for his fastballs and changeup, the barrel percentage of his fastball risen from 7.3% to 14.1%, and the barrel percentage of his changeup increased from 0% to 10.5%.

Statcast also shows Bauer’s percentage of fastballs and changeups thrown have increased, while the rate of breaking balls have decreased. It appears he’s had command issues in 2019 because his walk percentage has also inflated from 7.7% in 2018 to 11.7% in 2019.

One of the reasons why I like Bauer is because he appears to be a real student of the game. His personal brand displayed on his website titled “baueroutage” showcases his training regimens and equipment used.

I’m confident he will rebound at some point because I know he is a very good pitcher. However, after reviewing his sabermetrics, I can understand why the Yankees would consider passing on him if the asking price was too high. If they decide to pass on Bauer, they could consider acquiring either Madison Bumgarner or Dallas Keuchel instead.