Yankees Rumors: Will they regret not signing Machado or Harper?

Many Yankees fans are wondering whether the team made a mistake by not signing either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. Examining how many previous long-term, high salary deals have worked out for teams in the past should provide some indication as to whether the Yanks made the right decision.

In the February 24th Sunday edition of the New York Times, Joe Ward and Jeremy Bowers present an excellent and comprehensive analysis of MLB stars who have played or who are currently playing under multi-year contracts of at least $100 million. The list includes multiple Yankees both past and present.

The two sports writers compare the relative value of previous financially rewarded players by examining their average yearly salary during the contract and their average yearly WAR (wins above replacement) during the time of the contract.

The two authors argue that WAR is a good indicator to use to assess a player’s value since it seeks to compare MLB players across different eras, positions, and ballparks. WAR, like other alternative measures, however, has its limitations (e.g., excludes team fit and leadership in the clubhouse).

Previous best and worst deals for teams

Several high-priced players have turned out to be good deals for MLB teams during the duration of their long-term agreements.

Those with an 8.00 or more average yearly WAR during their contract period include Mike Trout (Angels), Albert Pujols (first contract, Cardinals), and Alex Rodriguez (first contract, Rangers and Yankees). Those with a 6.00 or more average yearly WAR during their contract period include Max Scherzer (Nationals) and J.D. Martinez (Red Sox).

A number of players have had at least a 4.00 or more average yearly WAR while under a long-term contract, including Derek Jeter (Yankees), Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins and Yankees), Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), and Robinson Cano (Mariners). Yanks C.C. Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jason Giambi are just above the average WAR (just under 3.0) for all high salary players.

As Ward and Bowers point out, the Philliez long-term agreement with Ryan Howard, however, was one of the worst financial arrangements ever made. He had a negative WAR in four out of the five seasons during his lucrative contract. Admittedly, he fought various injuries during this time, but this is the risk a team takes with long-term, high-salary deals.

Mark Teixeira (Yankees) and, not surprisingly, Jacoby Ellsbury (Yankees) also underperformed compared to other ballplayers with lengthy, lucrative contracts. Both were below the average WAR for all high-salary contract players with multi-year contracts.

Age at the time of the signing matters

It is clear from the data that the age of a signed ballplayer influences returns on investments and the overall value of the deal. For example, Albert Pujols (Angels), Alex Rodriguez (Yankees), and Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) all under-performed during their second long-term contracts.

Overall, according to Ward and Bowers, there have been 72 separate contracts of at least $100 million. Nine of those financial agreements were signed by players 26 years old or younger. Of those nine players, eight earned an average WAR of 4.5 or higher during their contractual period. The other 63 contracts were awarded to players who were older than 26. Surprisingly, only eight of these MLB players had a WAR of 4.5 or higher.

Machado and Harper are both 26 years old and are very much so in the prime of their careers. They both have achieved impressive batting records during their brief careers regardless of which measure one examines. Based on their offensive achievements thus far and their trajectory, there is a very good chance that both players will end up in the Hall of Fame after their careers are over.

Machado has already signed a 10-year contract worth $300 million with the San Diego Padres. The latest rumor is that Harper is likely to receive a similar deal for even more money over a ten-year period from the Philadelphia Phillies.

However, are they both worth those very high salaries over a 10-year period? As we know, Machado has “hustle” and personality issues and Harper has been inconsistent at the plate and especially in the field. A greater concern is the unusual length of their contracts.

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How long do we think they will perform at a commensurately high level to warrant being paid this kind of money? Eight years? Seven years? Perhaps even fewer years? Yet, the Padres have inked Machado to a long 10-year deal and Harper is likely to sign for the same length of time, possibly with the Phillies.

I have always thought that the success of sports teams, including baseball clubs, is predicated not only by which players management signs and for how long, but also who they decide not to sign. While Machado and Harper have been terrific players thus far, it is much too risky and could be too costly long-term for any club to provide either of them with a 10-year, $300 million plus contract.

The Yankees brass made the right move not to hire either player for such a long duration and for such a large sum of money, thereby tying their hands for future deals with their excellent existing young players like Aaron Judge.