Yankees best choices for assembling a playoff pitching rotation

The Yankees rotation, currently healthy and mostly productive, is not an area of worry, but more of confusion. Who should be part of the Postseason staff? Who should move to the bullpen? And who should pitch which games?

With six potential starters, the Yankees have a plethora of options heading into what looks to be the Wild Card; winner takes all matchup against the Oakland Athletics.

If the Yankees finish the season first in the Wild Card standings and Oakland, second, as it stands now, the two will play on Oct. 3 at Yankee Stadium.

This being the case, the Boston Red Sox will take the division and obtain home-field advantage for the ALDS against the winner of the Wild Card Game.

And since the Red Sox are baseball’s best team, arguably one of the best teams in baseball history, the Yanks should aim to have a pitcher, not at the top of their rotation — yet, one who can still manage to get a win, start against the Athletics.

That’s the goal. To win a game against Oakland, while saving some of the better pitchers for the beginning of the ALDS. Being that the ALDS series is best of five series, the first few games are crucial, especially with the majority of the series being in Boston.

But obviously, you’d like to have a reliable pitcher each game — one who matches up well against the opposition.

And that’s just what is to be advised here. Each game this Postseason will involve different scenarios leaving the Yanks to figure out who’s the strongest pitcher to start each game.

Without further delay, let’s get right into the Postseason talk, starting with the Wild Card game against the Oakland Athletics.

Wild Card Game

Masahiro Tanaka should start against the Athletics.

Yes, technically, Luis Severino is the ace of the staff but is not pitching as well as he did last year. Don’t get me wrong, Severino is still pitching well this year, just not Cy Young candidate level. But let’s return to Tanaka.

Don’t get me wrong, on any given day, Severino is still the best pitcher the Yankees have, just not a Cy Young candidate this time around. But let’s return to Tanaka.

Back from injury and pitching consistently well thus far, Tanaka will take the mound against either the Red Sox or the Athletics. But he’s been horrible against the Sox this season.

In three games, Tanaka has given up five home runs while Boston batters have hit .328 against him. On top of that, Tanaka sports a 6.60 ERA to go along with a 1.733 WHIP.

All of these numbers are considerably worse than his season stats. But Tanaka has not pitched against the Athletics at all this season — leaving some uncertainty in this decision to have Tanaka start the Wild Card Game.

However, Tanaka has faced about half the Athletics’ batters in his career, including 12 at-bats against the mighty Khris Davis.

Davis, who has hit 40+ home runs in each of his last three seasons, already has 42 homers this season. But when facing Tanaka, Davis is 1-for-12 with a single and seven strikeouts.

Tanaka also pitches equally well against both left-handed batters and right-handed, which is useful when facing a team such as the A’s, who have a few left-handed bats. This could also force the Athletics to play some of their not so good left-handed sticks in hopes of a lefty/righty matchup.

ALDS Game 1

Say the Yankees start Tanaka against the Athletics in the Wild Card, and the Yanks win the decisive one-game shootout.

Now comes an ALDS best of five series against the rival Red Sox. Game 1 in Boston should go to J.A. Happ.

Happ has been phenomenal against the Red Sox this season. In two starts, Happ has allowed just one earned run and one walk while striking out 16.

Not to mention, Happ’s career ERA in Fenway Park is 2.91. The scary thing about Happ is that he’s a fly ball pitcher. That can be very dangerous in the small and oddly configured outfield of Fenway.

Happ’s experience is another valuable asset in this situation, starting a Game 1 against the best team in baseball could be nerve-racking, but understandably less for the 12-year vet that has pitched in the Postseason for the the 2009 World Series Champion Phillies — and more recent, his former team, the Blue Jays, back in 2016.

An All-Star this season, Happ has a 3.75 ERA — and his highest strikeout rate since his rookie season.

If this idea worries you, let’s not forget that this Yankees team was not — and is not a team led by its rotation. The Yankees’ forte is hitting this season, so the plan should be to hit the lights out of the ball while hoping for as much support from your starter as possible.

Happ is the way to go for Game 1, but what about Game 2?

ALDS Game 3

Now comes the ace of the staff. Luis Severino should get the nod for Game 3.

Pitching in the Bronx over Fenway favors Severino more than it would Happ or Lynn.

Both Happ and Lynn are on their third-plus team, while Severino has only ever known pinstripes. While not in the box score, this experience to pitch in harsh and somewhat unknown environments could play a factor.

Severino’s career ERA at Fenway Park is 4.75 in 30.1 innings pitched with just 24 strikeouts. Not impressive. And this season, Sevy has pitched four games against the Red Sox. Two in Boston and two in New York.

Guess which two resulted in Yankee wins? That’s right, the two games at home, 3-2 and 11-1 victories over the rival Sox. The two away games? 10.2 total innings, nine earned runs, six walks and a boat-load of hits.

That is why I suggest Severino start his Postseason in the Bronx.

Severino is also a right-handed pitcher, just like Lynn, which could force the Red Sox to play Mitch Moreland in place of Steve Pearce, the Yankee Killer. It’s a relieving sentiment — in that during his career versus the Yankees, Pearce has hit 14 home runs, supported by a .286/.370/.662 slash line.

This is the best way to guarantee a win for Severino during this series. And with the Yanks best pitcher going third, they not only know their best pitcher will be going this series but can also hope to be up in the series by Game 4.

ALDS Game 4 & 5

If a Game 4 is necessary, which is likely to happen, I propose that C.C. Sabathia be on the mound.

The big lefty brings poise and composure to the “Baby Bombers,” who would be looking to either finish off the Red Sox by the time this contest rolls around or are looking to hold on for dear life.

Being that the only other options to pitch this game would be Sonny Gray or Tanaka — and Tanaka would be on short rest due to pitching the Wild Card Game, I think Sabathia is the more sound option.

Sabathia, another ground ball pitcher, has this on his side against a power hitting Red Sox team.

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Also, Xander Bogaerts (.152 BA), J.D. Martinez (.143 BA) and Andrew Benintendi (.222 BA) all hit significantly worse against Sabathia — as well as some other less prominent Sox players.

Game 5 defaults back to Masahiro Tanaka. I purposely have not included Sonny Gray in my Postseason rotation. I think he is too inconsistent to be relied upon for a quality start, but if needed can be called upon in relief, especially if any starters’ outings go south.

By far, Tanaka has the worst stats against the Red Sox among the Yankees’ staff. This includes a 6.60 ERA, a 1.733 WHIP and a .328 BAA.

But Tanaka does cause a good amount of ground balls: 1.41 groundballs to every one fly ball — and as I went over previously, Tanaka has looked good of late.

Hopefully, the Yanks can finish off the Sox without the need of Tanaka here but if not, we’re still in good hands.