Yankees: Predicting statistical leaders for the 2018 season

The chase for 28 is almost upon us as the Yankees are set to begin what should be another memorable season of baseball. Last season the Yanks surprised the baseball world when they made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS in what was thought to be a “rebuilding year.”

Unfortunately, we all know how that ended but in classic Yankees fashion, they have reloaded by adding some new additions to the infield, a new manager, and last year’s NL MVP. It’s a roster that is loaded with talent and expected to compete for a championship. Anything less than that would be considered unacceptable. This team is no longer the loveable underdogs they were a season ago. The Evil Empire is back and the next great Yankees dynasty could be upon us.

I can’t wait for things to get started, but before they do here are my predictions for the team’s statistical leaders in 2018.

Batting Average: Gary Sanchez

The pick here is Sanchez because he is the best pure hitter on the team. He has the talent to end up leading in home runs and RBI as well, but because of his position, I don’t think he’ll get as many at-bats to hang with the likes of Judge and Stanton. In 177 career games, Sanchez is already a .283 hitter with 53 HR and 132 RBI. That’s how great he’s been to start his career.

With Judge and Stanton in front of him, he’ll be able to fall under the radar throughout the season and that will benefit him both mentally and physically. Batting behind them and in front of guys like Didi and Bird (if he’s ever healthy) will lead to a ton of at-bats throughout the year where there’s no place to put him. Pitchers will be forced to attack him and if they make a mistake Sanchez will make them pay.

If there’s one weakness to his offensive game that we’ve seen early in his career it would be chasing breaking balls low and away against righties. However, his plate discipline has already improved and it will continue to get better. If he can cut down on the chasing that will help him raise that average and potentially hit over .300.

One reason why teammate CC Sabathia said Sanchez reminds him of a “young Manny Ramirez” is that he covers every inch of the strike zone and he’s someone who uses the whole field. He has as much power as anybody in this Yankee lineup but he also knows how to cut down on his swing and take a ball the other way instead of trying to pull it 500 ft.

I truly believe this is the year we could see Sanchez win an MVP. His offensive numbers are going to be among the best in the game and the fact that he plays such a demanding position will help his cause. This guy has all the tools you could ask for in a player and the crazy thing is the best is yet to come.

Home Runs: Giancarlo Stanton

The obvious choice here is Stanton after he put up a career-high 59 home runs on his way to the NL MVP a season ago. He’s the best home run hitter in baseball and while teammate Aaron Judge might take his crown in the coming years Stanton is still in his prime and has shown no signs of slowing down.

Last year Stanton played in a notorious pitcher’s park and he was only one away from hitting 60. Imagine the damage he’s going to do at Yankee Stadium. He’s going to hit home runs by accident to the short porch in right field just because of how freakishly strong he is. A routine fly ball or a simple line drive the other way could end up in the seats. Last year we saw that happen with Judge countless times.

In addition to the dimensions of Yankee Stadium another thing that’s going to benefit Stanton is his spot in the lineup. Whether that’s in the three hole or the clean-up spot, hitting in between Judge and Sanchez or Judge and Didi will help him because nobody is going to be able to pitch around any of them. That means more fastballs and more pitches to hit.

With Stanton leading the way it wouldn’t surprise me if this Yankees team came close to breaking the 97′ Mariners’ single-season home run record of 264. It also wouldn’t surprise me if by seasons’ end we’ll see Stanton break the Yankees single-season record held by Roger Maris. He’s said in the past that he thinks that’s the true home run record so you know it’s a record he would love to be his.

RBI: Giancarlo Stanton

The Yankees could probably have as many as five guys with over 100 RBIs this season but the pick here is Stanton for a couple of reasons. One is the fact that Gary Sanchez will not be in the lineup every day and if he’s healthy the entire season that means he’ll likely play about 130 to 140 games. Barring any injury himself, Stanton will be in the lineup in some form every day which should put him in the 150 game range. More games mean more RBI chances for last year’s NL MVP.

The other reason is Judge will likely spend the majority of the season batting in the two hole with Stanton getting most of his at-bats right behind him or batting clean-up. Judge will have plenty of RBI opportunities himself throughout the season, but more times than not he will be the guy being driven in.

Last year Stanton put up a career-high 132 RBI in a pretty good lineup with the Marlins. This Yankees lineup is a completely different animal. 1-9 they have guys who can get on base at a high rate and pick up a ton of extra base hits. Because of his place in the order, Stanton will have more opportunities than anybody else to drive them in. He’ll do that in bunches in 2018 and could very well set a new career high.

Runs: Aaron Judge

Not only will Judge score more runs than any other Yankee but there’s a good chance he’ll lead the entire major leagues as well. During his historic rookie season Judge led the AL with 128 runs. That was 16 more than second-place finishers George Springer and Jose Altuve of the Astros.

Anybody who hits 52 home runs in a season is going to score a lot of runs but the main reason Judge led the league was probably because of his 127 walks. That also led the AL by a large margin and that’s a total he should be able to come close to again in 2018. Judge’s elite plate discipline helps him earn so many free passes but a lot of it is due to pitchers being afraid to give him anything good to hit. They’d rather just put him on base than watch him hit a ball over 500 ft.

As I said before, more times than not Judge will be the guy being driven in when he’s not driving in himself with home runs. This year he is expected to spend most of his time hitting in the two hole and possibly even leading off. With Stanton, Sanchez and the rest of the bunch following him in this stacked Yankee lineup, Judge is going to have a ton of opportunities to score some runs. That will probably lead to him spending more time jogging home than he will be running. Although his underrated baserunning skills with his ability to take the extra base could factor into his season total.

Another 120 to 130 run season is certainly well within reach for last year’s Rookie of the Year.

Hits: Didi Gregorius 

It seems likely that some combination of Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez will lead the team in the power categories but no Yankee will pick up more hits than Didi. Didi is coming off another career year as he has continued to get better in every statistical area since taking over for Derek Jeter back in 2015. Last year he started the season on the DL and basically missed the entire month of April, but when he returned he was outstanding the rest of the way and throughout the team’s postseason run.

In only 136 games Didi picked up 153 hits, just one shy of Aaron Judge’s team-leading total of 154. He also hit .287 with 87 RBI and broke the Yankees single-season record for home runs by a shortstop with 25, passing the Captain’s 24.

One thing Didi does better than anyone in this Yankee lineup is put the ball in play. In a lineup that will probably strike out more than most Didi only did so 70 times in 2017. He’s also doesn’t walk much but with all these three true outcome guys (HR/BB/K) in today’s game that’s a very low strikeout total.

Didi is also a hitter who doesn’t get fazed by left-handed pitchers. He stays inside the ball extremely well and he doesn’t budge at a weird arm angle or a nasty breaking ball. Over the last two seasons, he’s hit a combined .294 against southpaws. His power numbers are much better against righties, but his ability to make consistent contact against lefties will help him find more holes and pick up more hits.

If Didi can replicate the kind of year he had in 2017 while staying healthy over the course of an entire season his hit total could range anywhere from 180-200. That should be more than enough to lead this year’s Yankee squad. It should also finally lead to his first All-Star game appearance.

Wins and Strikeouts: Luis Severino

Last season Sevy won the Triple Crown of pitching amongst all Yankees starters in what was a breakout campaign for the 24-year-old right-hander. He finished third in the AL Cy Young voting after posting a 14-6 record with a 2.98 ERA and 230 strikeouts. In the process, he established himself as one of the top pitchers in the game today.

Wins

Nobody in this Yankees rotation has stuff like Sevy and last year he started to show the workhorse mentality you need to have to be an ace of a staff. That will enable him to have another season that could put him in Cy Young contention. He’s coming off a 14 win season which is a solid number, but he probably should have had more when you take into account his 11 no-decisions. With this Yankees lineup expected to score more runs than any offense in the game, that win total is likely to increase in 2018.

One of the things that made him so special last season was his ability to pitch deep into games while maintaining his elite stuff. He could be in the seventh inning of a start with over 100 pitches and he would still be dealing fastballs anywhere from 98-100 mph. If he can continue to do that this season it will lead to more opportunities to put himself in a position to get wins.

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Strikeouts

While it wouldn’t surprise me if Masahiro Tanaka or Sonny Gray ended up leading the team in wins, I would be shocked if a healthy Severino doesn’t lead the team in strikeouts. Last season Sevy finished fourth in the AL with a whopping 230 strikeouts.

The combination of his power fastball and wipeout slider accounted for the majority of his K’s but a much-improved change-up also helped him add to his total toward the tail end of the season. The key though was fastball location which was something he struggled mightily with during a difficult 2016 season. Now that he’s finally put it all together 230 K’s is a number that’s well within reach this season and one he could certainly surpass.

Moving forward Sevy is now the unquestioned ace of this Yankees staff and with that comes more responsibility. He’s the ace who would get the ball in Game 1 of a playoff series and the ace who will get the ball on Opening Day in Toronto. Don’t expect him to give up that title anytime soon.