Yankees and Major League Baseball arrive at a crossroads

The Yankees spent the last two years transforming from an old club to a new one. Now they stand ready to make a seismic shift in the sport, a game going through significant changes of its own.

Yankees fans and writers, last year at this time, felt a lot of optimism and hope so. Today, after a season of home runs and high fives, the vibe is more of surety and hell-yeah.

And for good reason. That 2017 team wasn’t the real Yankees, it was the tryout for the 2018 Yankees. Because, while some players arrived ahead of schedule, two of their best have not yet made it. Plus, management knew they were going into the season with far too many underperforming players.

Finally, while they had some money to spend last year, they were never going to have enough to compete with win-now teams. That ended up costing them a shot at the World Series.

Think of how so many of those factors combined in the postseason. Three big pitchers who were traded, and later appeared in the playoffs: Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish.

The Yankees opted for the least expensive of the three. They acquired the very good and still young Sonny Gray because they were not a win-now team. Gray made them better, but a big part of his value is that he is young and under team control for two more years.

Additionally, Gray cost the Yanks less than two million for his time in 2017 and roughly ten million the next two years.

Meanwhile, the Astros and Dodgers picked up Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish, respectively. Darvish cost the Dodgers roughly twelve million, but Verlander was much more expensive. Not only did the Astros agree to pay around seven million for last year, but also close to $40 million over the next two seasons.

Show me the money

As you know, the teams finished in order of how their free agent pitchers did: Astros first, Dodgers second, Yankees third. It is conceivable that, had the Yankees picked up Verlander, they would have won the World Series

But they didn’t do that, and the view from here makes clear the reasons. Darvish, who was my first choice for the Yankees to trade for, is already a free agent. And his cringeworthy performance in the WS made me glad he was not melting down for the Yankees.

Had they taken the gamble I wanted them too, they would be in a worse position now as his prospect package would have been more significant.

Verlander, meanwhile, has already paid for his contract but that was never a sure thing. No one who values the future of the franchise wanted Brian Cashman to trade for an aging, expensive player with a very checkered last five seasons and the propensity to break down.

That seems more likely now that he has had to make a deep playoff run.

No, Verlander never fit into the plans of the 2017 Yankees, or beyond. But that’s all done now. Today, the Yankees face a fascinating crossroads for the organization, and for baseball itself.

We’ll start with a look at how the game itself is changing, starting this offseason, and then at how the Yankees are set to thrive in this new framework.

Bobby Brown level blockage

The hot stove season has been pretty cold, Dee Gordon notwithstanding. And we all know why: Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani. Of the two, at least Stanton seems to want to play for a championship.

But when that logjam breaks, we will see the first of a new era in baseball, or perhaps it is better to say a return to an old era.

Free agency took a real hit in the last collective bargaining agreement. Rules made it, so teams signing specific free agents had to give up first round picks. I’m not going to dissect the minutiae as this is a Yankees site and I want to return to them, individually.

This happened at the same time as big market clubs reawakened to the monetary value of homegrown players. That caused what we all saw the last few offseasons: A slow process that almost always left a few outstanding veterans out of baseball.

That rule has been changed. There are still compensation penalties, but the highest now only go between the first and second rounds.

This should make it easier for clubs to sign role players again, whose salaries the clubs don’t object to but are not worth compensation picks. The effect of this change will be incredibly significant over the next two or three years, its impact seemingly slight at first.

Show me less money

Of course, owners always have to stop themselves collectively from spending too much money individually.

So the new CBA changes the international rules and salary cap, which encourages all the teams them to spend more in small ways but really ups the penalties for the most prominent offenders; I’ve linked to several articles, and anyone with a keen interest should read them.

Most important for Yankees fans is that the cap has moved up and will keep running up. While it only goes up from $195 million to $197 million for 2018, it shoots all the way up to $206M for 2019.

And hints and conversations are being held that suggest changes of equal impact. The new CBA gives the commissioner power to unilaterally make rules changes this year, which he did not have last year.

It looks like limiting visits to the mound is a sure thing; fair enough.

But the powers that be have been experimenting quite a bit this year in the winter leagues. This season might see something as different as placing a man on second to start each half of an extra-inning game, beginning with the eleventh inning. It will undoubtedly be an omnipresent topic.

Okay, now back to the money

And expansion/realignment is coming soon; expect that to be one of the most significant topics of the season. The players are tired of all the travel, as multimillionaires probably have some right to be.

Plus, the league is flush with cash. It’s one of the reasons the players demanded the luxury tax limit be raised.

Right now, when the Mariners travel to play an away game, their shortest distance is over 800 miles, which applies to the teams that have to fly in to play a quick series with them. Boston and New York are only two hundred miles apart.

And that says nothing about the time zones. For you travelers, you know that time in the air and number of times zones are the two biggest problems.

The solution is a win-win. MLB will look to add a team to Portland, Oregon and either Vancouver, BC, Vegas or Mexico City. For those who don’t know the Northwest, the Portland/Vancouver option would put three teams in driving distance from each other.

These additional teams would also bring realignment. This article goes into great depth, but the salient points are that there will be 32 teams, a possibly reduced season, and expanded playoffs. And it will lead to a lot less travel for the Yankees, and all the other teams.

That will be offset for some teams by the addition of international games, a la the NFL, but still, the aggregate should be beneficial to the players. And the game played on the field.

I wish I could get this guy’s money

Some changes are already in place, such as a more extended season to provide the players with extra rest.

But there is one more turning point baseball is coming to. A few years ago, teams realized the folly of signing thirty-year-old players to what players want most, a ten-year contract.

Agents, however, had encouraged players to wait until the age of 30 to test that kind of market. Historically, more players have had career years in their age thirty season, than any other.

This new analysis halted an age-old process. Players already 30, no longer got the big contracts and agents began to work on extensions that ended when players turned the new magic number, 28. It seemed to many that baseball had changed and the era of the big free agent contract was over.

How many times did we hear that teams now sign their players and big free agents are a thing of the past?

Wrong; it was just a market correction. And next year, as well all know, will prove it. But, why does that make this offseason the turning point? Two reasons. One, some teams are probably not going to wait until next off-season to lose their stars and make bold trades this year. If true, that would favor teams with deep systems.

Such as the Yankees.

How would it feel to trade Chance Adams, Jake Cave and Thairo Estrada for one year of Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Clayton Kershaw (opt-out)? Charlie Blackmon? Gio Gonzalez? That might be a possibility.

Don’t want no short term, don’t want no short-term deal

The other thing that is changing is giving the long-term extensions. It seemed like a good idea to lock up a budding superstar early.

But small market teams forgot that superstars are rare. When you pay a player at a superstar level, and he stops performing like one with six or seven years left, your club is financially stymied for the next decade; Homer Bailey springs to mind.

My feeling from the league is that this philosophy is ending. That will mean a return to players coming available even earlier in their careers, another trend starting now.

That’s a quick primer on some of the new and most impactful changes and discussions coming to the 2018 season that major league baseball will have to confront. And that’s not all MLB will have to contend with.

Now that we know the framework, we can see the 2018 Yankees coming into view. Time to take a look.

And he’s directly descended from Daniel Boone

We can already see a different manager will lead them. Aaron Boone will bring his more relaxed, Torre-esque approach with him, and try to engage with the players in a way Girardi never did.

This is a big risk, one I thought they would not want to take. It seemed as if Girardi has saved his job during that preview playoff run.

But good is the enemy of great, and it is hard to question Cashman. He has tied his legacy to Boone’s, and it seems like a good bet. My guess is his style, age and knowledge of the game will allow this team to explode into its potential, as the Lakers once did under Pat Riley, another broadcaster turned manager.

Look for a loose but focused club next year that plays with passion.

Show me the players [Editor’s Note: Stop this, or there will be consequences]

Next, it’s the players Boone will manage that is the next significant crossroads — because you can’t give away wins in a championship year. A team is benefited in myriad ways by winning its division, and the earlier the better.

And lest we forget, every game in the ALCS was won by the home team. Would the Yankees and Dodgers have met if the Yankees had home field? I don’t know, but I’d like to find out.

And for those reasons, the Yankees cannot afford to keep even their potentially best players on the farm and allow lesser players, players they know are not championship caliber, to get at-bats in the bigs. Or wait to find out for sure about overlapping position players.

Every asset at Triple-A must either be used to win this year or traded for a player who can help the Yankees this year and beyond.

That means you keep Jordan Montgomery but trade Jake Cave.

Ellsbury gets the bronze

Going into the 2017 season, the Yanks could afford to view such players as Jacoby Ellsbury and Chase Headley as inconvenient truths. Now, they know they must jettison those guys because it takes every roster spot to win a title.

That’s why Cash has gone out of his way to announce Ells as the fourth outfielder, for the first time. He is trying to motivate him to waive his no-trade for a chance to start somewhere. My guess is it works. The same is true for Headley: He will go sometime between now and next July. CC might come back for the right contract, but that helps the team.

Fortunately, as the saying goes, when God opens the door to kick out old and under-performing players, he opens a window to let in some better, younger players.

In this case, that means at least Gleyber Torres.

That guy got too much money

I’ve read a lot of articles and attendant comments from Yankees fans recently. One recurring theme is that the Yankees have the big boppers but still need the table setters; that’s Torres.

I know this might seem difficult to believe in the face of 52 home runs, but Gleyber Torres is the Yankees most talented young player. It might end up being like adding Jose Altuve to the Yankees line-up.

And the best part is he will be playing in the Bronx from day one.

Before you write your comments, remember three things: One, every member of Girardi’s staff wanted him on the club last year, but Cash said that was not going to happen as he had never played above High-A. So the Yankees advanced him all the way to Triple-A before he got hurt.

Two, Cash has already said Torres can win the job in spring training. And, three, if you watched Torres’ workout tweets last year, you saw how motivated he was just to be in the organization. How much do you think he is going to work now that he knows he can win a big league job if he just tries hard enough?

Look for Torres to start spring training as their best player, and end it as such.

Money, money, money, moooooney

But it is speculation about so many of the other prospects who rose to the top in 2017 that makes this so much of a turning point for a franchise that dreams of multiple championship parades.

Take Miguel Andujar. He might have a major league, high average bat right now. And his defense might have improved enough that he is ready to be anywhere from a regular to a star in 2018.

The same is true for players such as Jake Cave, Thairo Estrada, Billy McKinney and Chance Adams, to name a few. The Yanks need to either decide these guys are ready and construct their roster accordingly. Or trade them before they lose value.

And those decisions have major ramifications.

If the Yankees cannot trust Adams to at least try out for a starters job, then they need to decide that now. Otherwise, they risk he and the others showing the rest of Major League Baseball they cannot perform above Triple-A, causing their stocks to plummet.

Then the Yankees would have to bring in free agents of some organizational depth, and that puts money into shoring up a problem instead of creating a strength.

The other great player coming is Estevan Florial. Look for him no later than September, perhaps as his Yankees tryout.

Fortunately, the Yankees have already been looking at ways the organization might change and have already made some critical decisions for 2018.

They might not give him any more money [You were warned]

They looked at Dellin Betances and saw a player who might be about to fall apart. And that is in part the reason they removed Dillon Tate from the Arizona Fall League and replaced him with Albert Abreu.

Abreu projects more as a reliever, and an excellent one, and felt getting him ready for that role more pressing than allowing Dillon another chance to advance.

I have heard some faint injury news about Tate, but I still think the above played into the decision making process. During open tryouts for the bullpen next spring training, Abreu figures to be front and center.

Abreu, though, seems like the least likely change predicted in the desert. The Yankees played McKinney at first quite a bit in the AFL; that means he is lined up to be not only the new super-utility player but also Bird’s primary back-up.

The team never found a suitable player for this role in 2017, but McKinney has the Yankees convinced he is the man for 2018.

Show me the man-y?

And Thairo Estrada has convinced everybody. The Yankees sent Thairo to the AFL to see if he was as good against much better competition, or was just right for his age. What all Estrada did was show he is one of the best young infielders in baseball, and rake like a mother.

He will probably start the season at Scranton, but will eventually either replace Ronald Torreyes or be traded for a player of real value.

Ronald Acuna was the best player in the AFL, easily won the MVP, and deserved to. But Thairo’s name had to come up. Now, what do they do with him? If Torres is a definite yes, and Andujar is more likely to make it than Estrada, what should the Yankees do?

No one thought that money thing was funny

For the first time in several years, the Yankees are going to be significant players in the free agent market. Matt Holliday was a good get last year, although he didn’t play that way the entire season, the Yankees have a lot more than thirteen million to invest this year… and certainly, hope for a better return.

However, Hal Steinbrenner is also committed to getting under the luxury tax threshold. Again, without going into too much detail, once a team operates for a single year under the tax, that team’s penalties are reduced an immense amount. That is happening now, and the Yankees will spend 2018 under the cap. Now that’s a massive change.

So, while Cash doesn’t have the same cash he had after the 2008 season, he has enough to get a front-line starter, and maybe a bat. The Yankees have always spent on the club and will sign either Yu Darvish, Alex Cobb or Jake Arrieta, another significant change coming soon.

All during the season, I advocated the Yanks signing Darvish; now I hope he is their last option. Instead, Cobb looks like the guy, although I like Arrieta better. But then I wanted Darvish, so, grain of salt and all that.

The final part; I knew writing these was easy

So here the Yankees are. They have some money to spend but need to spend it wisely. Which pitcher could best help them? Which will have a fluke injury in 2018 and be lost for the season? Or will break down after one year, making his contract an Ellsbury?

And which infielders are real, and which need to be traded? And will we need more starters or relievers? Or will first base be a black hole again, Bird grounded due to injury?

Is McKinney the real answer as a back-up, or will the Yankees lose more mid-season games due to poor replacement players?

The team is flooded with talent and has now enough money to do what needs to be done. But, how should it deploy that ability, and which positions will need extra help? Getting to game seven showed the Yankees could float on their dreams down the Canyon of Heroes in 2018. But that’s if they can the see the correct road before them.

And one more final, final bit

If not, however, that road gets a lot brighter next year when all the seeds Cash and the Yankees have been planting will finally be sown. First, they will get under the tax this year, making them able to go over it next year with little penalty.

Second, the tax threshold will be raised next season ($206M), another boon when it comes to spending free agent dollars.

Third, the Yankees will shed another fifty million in salary next year; this means their ability to spend will go up at the same time the amount they are allowed to pay without penalty will go up.

And last, and we all know this one, at the same time that the Yankees will feel free to spend the most they have in years, the best free agent class ever will become available. Now that’s a Yankees’ convergence.

Next: Jake Walker previews the Yankees 2018 starting rotation

Because the single biggest change happening now is the return of the mission statement. We all knew the Yankees were more dreamers than serious contenders the last four years. That’s all changed. A team that entered the 2017 season as curiosity will come next season as a contender, as the Yankees are positioning themselves now for another decade of dominance.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.