Yankees six degrees of separation: Blake Rutherford to Yu Darvish

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Yankees fans sometimes have to wait years to judge a trade. But not this time. The team will tell us all how to view this deal over the next six months.

The Yankees started a full rebuild effort just last year. First, they traded away two of their best players for prospects. Next, they cut A-Rod while still owing him almost 40 million Yankees Fun Bucks, through this year. And of course they brought up several young Yankees to face the heat of late season baseball in the Bronx.

All were unprecedented moves for the Yankees.

The plan is a familiar one in baseball, though: get rid of veterans and restock the farm with the best young talent you can acquire. When the team looks like it has enough talent to compete for the playoffs, you give it some support.

If the team does make the playoffs, two things happen. One, the team creates a revenue stream for years to come:

Postseason dollars are mostly measured in future revenue, unlike win dollars, which are measurable for the current year. Once a team reaches the playoffs, it can count on an additional revenue stream over the next four to five years as a result.

A Reason to Push for the Playoffs

Two, the players are sending a signal that, with some key free agents, they might be ready for a championship run. With the extra revenue, the team feels more confident to invest in free agents and then it’s up to the gods. The Cubs and Red Sox serve as recent examples.

Many fans and observers have been predicting that 2019 would be the Yankees coming out party. That was supposed to give their great young players time to finish developing at the big league level. And it would coincide with the much anticipated free agent class after the 2018 season.

Observers assumed the Yankees brain trust felt the same way.

But the recent trade of Blake Rutherford reveals that Brian Cashman and the Boys see this as a win now team. Now it’s time to share that vision.

The Plan Accelerates

Clearly Cashman looks out onto the field and sees enough talent already developed to plan an imminent run, a difficult point to argue against. And while Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez look like monsters in the middle of the order, it is the maturation of Luis Severino that most convinced the Yankees it was time to stop hoping to win and start planning to.

He is the already the ace of the staff and one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

That doesn’t mean Cash thinks the Yankees are going to win the World Series this year; that still seems unlikely. But Hal has stated that the Yankees financial structure is compromised when the Yankees miss the playoffs for more than one year.

That’s already happened. So the brain trust must believe this trade has at least made the 2017 Yankees wild card game talented. And that Severino can win that game. There is no other good reason to trade Rutherford this year. That alone would make this trade a financial win for the Steinbrenners.

That of itself, while good for Hal, would not justify trading the number thirty overall prospect in baseball, along with others. The Yankees must see 2018 as a year when they will contend for a championship; it’s the only way the trade makes sense.

It’s All About Control

Todd Frazier, he of the .206 BA, is a free agent at the end of this year. And David Robertson is a free agent after next year. That only leaves Tommy Kahnle under team control beyond 2018 (2020).

If Cashman didn’t think the team could win it all before 2019, they could have waited and gotten Robertson as a free agent and traded lesser pieces for Kahnle only. Todd Frazier is an upgrade but that says more about the Yankees players than Frazier. Acquiring him does not make the Yankees any more likely to win the World Series this year.

But he could help them reach the playoffs. Robertson is a better player but has the same impact: he elevates the bullpen but does not finish transforming the Yanks into a serious title contender this year or next.

And, if the Yankees are not serious about trying to win it all next year, it would mean they traded Blake Rutherford to field a playoff caliber team the next two years with no real chance to drive down the Canyon of Heroes. It also means they traded Rutherford’s future for Kahnle’s; that I could never believe.

No, this trade means the Yankees will be serious about chasing a championship next year, at the latest. Now we just need to see the 2018 team the way Cash, Hal, and Joe do.

Internal Options

First and third have been drags on the offense; we can see that without learning any backroom machinations. The Yankees must see a 2018 with Greg Bird on first, backed up by Tyler Austin, with Miguel Andujar at third.

That leaves three players for two infield spots: Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, and Gleyber Torres. Torres is a budding star, and even younger and under team control for longer than either of the other two. He’d be playing now if he were not injured.

That means that either Didi or Starlin will have to go; I can’t wait for the comments section after that statement. Based on their recent decisions, the Yankees will probably trade Didi Gregorius and keep Starlin Castro because he hits more home runs.

Love Hurts

And if not Didi, someone of that above mentioned group has to go in the next 12 months. There are only so many bases to play. Besides, smart organizations always trade from a position of strength at one position to create a stronger overall team. For the Yankees that means trading for starting pitching.

All three of those players are significant pieces and could bring back an impact arm. Didi, for example, is under team control through the 2019 season and is already playing at an All-Star level. Starlin was an actual AS this year. If it wasn’t for Gleyber Torres, I would never suggest either be traded.

But what if Cashman traded one of them for a young arm like Chris Archer? That would make sense for both teams as the Rays have postseason dreams of their own. They already have a younger, better pitcher in Jacob Faria and need an upgrade at shortstop.

This would be a win-win trade. And if not Archer specifically, someone akin to him is realistic for a young, talented, proven All-Star infielder under team control for a couple more years.

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Clearing the Underbrush

Chase Headley is not part of the plan, if you noticed. He’ll have to go. Anyone who loses his job to Todd Frazier this year is not going to win it from Miguel Andujar next spring.

But, more importantly, if the Yankees believe they can contend next year, they cannot just wait for sub-par players’ bad contracts to expire. The same is true for Ellsbury. If the Yankees can’t trade them for some salary relief, they will have to cut them before spring training ends. These types of moves might even come sooner than we think.

I would have never suggested such a thing before the Yankees actually did it last year with A-Rod. Now, it makes sense as the only way to get championship caliber players on the field. At the end of this season, the team will finish paying Alex 40 million not to play; they might start paying one or two others next year.

More from Yanks Go Yard

The trade of Rutherford also shows the Yankees believe that the outfield is already overflowing with talent and no outside additions will be necessary. That just leaves starting pitching in need of a serious upgrade.

Clearly the Yankees can see that Luis Severino will come into camp as the ace of the staff; that’s a great beginning to a World Series bound rotation. But here is where we will see if the brain trust really sees 2018 as a win now year: The Yankees need to sign Yu Darvish in the off-season.

Not Much Separation Between Vision and Reality

For you salary cap buffs, the team is currently at 221 million. Next year’s cap will be 197 million. The team has roughly 65 million coming off the books and could, therefore, spend almost 40 million and stay under the cap. Darvish is good but he won’t cost 40 million, so the Yankees will be able to afford him.

If the Yankees take these steps, then this trade was a great idea. Think of the team Cashman might be envisioning for 2018. It will have a youthful and resilient upgraded offense anchored by one of the best young players in baseball, many of whom are in the majors getting valuable experience today. They will have a world-class bullpen; they assembled that by trading Rutherford.

Next: If You Don't Know the Trade I am talking About, Steve Contursi takes you Through It

And this could be their rotation: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, Chris Archer, and Jordan Montgomery. If that is indeed the Yankees vision for next year, it’s one I would like to see become reality. That team would make a championship run a real possibility for the 2018 New York Yankees and beyond.

And the good news is we will only have to wait until the free agent signing period to find out if this was a successful trade for the Yankees. Or just the Steinbrenners.

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