Yankees patient approach will save the season in July or sink it in June

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The Yankees Brian Cashman has taken a very a patient approach to the player’s struggles so far. But now the team reaches a critical deadline. It is time to see if Cashman’s patient gambling will be too little, too late for the 2017 New York Yankees or be the key to it’s deep playoff run. Is Cashman’s approach patient and wise, or tentative and foolish?

The Yankees are either in real trouble or they have all of baseball right where they want them. It all depends on your perspective. Well, it depends on Brian Cashman’s perspective.

He sees the same things we do: The starters and relievers are collectively crashing this promising season. The team has lost eight of its last nine games. It went from a comfortable lead in the division to a tie with Boston. And they are playing better while the Yankees are playing worse.

The team’s pitching is slowly sinking the team. Cashman’s current response might do the same.

Uber is Not Just a Paid Ride

The Yankees are taking an uber-slow approach to their problems. Take the lack of production and quality play at first and third.

There was, and perhaps still is, a case to be made that the three best non-first basemen are Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius, and Ronald Torreyes. And if it’s not true today, it certainly was true for most of May and the beginning of June.

That should have put Chase Headley on the bench, although he has played better recently. I could make the same argument for Chris Carter. Both have retained their starting roles. Those two non-moves are acceptable because the offense has not been the problem.

And this works for the Yankees long term plan because they want to wait for July when teams are more willing to listen, to bench and/or trade these players.

Chase Headley is still a major league player with a reasonable contract for next year. He is a viable if not exciting player. Teams have taken back much worse players in trade deals. But no one cares about that in June.

Things start to change in July, however. Then will be clubs desperate to shed salary or upgrade their farm systems. As outlined here, there are plenty of good but not blue-chip prospects to trade. But the receiving team would have to take Headley as part of the package, either with the Yankees eating a bit of salary of kicking in one extra medium prospect.

That is a possibility, just not in May or June. But that same approach might prove disastrous for the pitching.

Clearly Not Tanaka Time

This same approach to pitching, however, has provided mixed results at best. CC Sabathia was struggling back in April and May; everyone wanted him benched or traded, except for opposing batters. But Girardi trusted his veteran to solve his problems and CC rewarded him by returning to an ace-like status.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, that same approach has not worked for Masahiro Tanaka or Tyler Clippard. Neither should be throwing in a meaningful game for the Yankees right now; Clippard recently proved he should not be pitching at all when he gave up two runs but no outs in the ninth inning of a game the Yankees led 8-2.

Both men should have been sat down by now. That is not to mean that either should be traded or permanently benched. No, just given a chance to work things out in non-game situations. Even a short break can help pitchers mentally reset and fix their mechanics in a way that a bullpen session cannot.

A Maxim without the Pictures

But Girardi and the Yankees have more than June on their minds, and they understand the nature of baseaball. One fundamental reality of The MLB is that the season is very, very long. Because of that, a common belief is that the team does not fully declare itself until July 1st. And that wise organizations make no decisions until that time.

Another relevant maxim is that once you lose a veteran—meaning your handling of them destroys their confidence or positive attitude in the locker room—you have lost him for the year. That’s fine in late August or with a lower rung player at any time. But June is way too early to risk losing Tanaka or Clippard, the former being far more important.

It’s why YanksGoYard was able to predict that Tanaka would be given extra rest instead of skipped. It wasn’t necessarily the right decision, just the one the Yankees were going to make. They just made it with a different player, Chad Green instead of Chance Adams.

Clippard does not have to be on this team in September, but June is too early to decide that. But Tanaka will be; the Yankees are thinking about that, too. Masahiro will also be on this team in 2018 and ‘19, and the Yanks are thinking of those years, as well. It’s also the explanation of how they have handled their prospects. At least so far.

Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

A Very Slow Arms Race

Chance Adams has to be the worst-kept secret in baseball. He might be the best pitcher in all of the Triple-A and is ranked as the Yankees eighth best prospect. Ranked 12^th, and also playing for Scranton, is Domingo Acevedo. But the Yankees called up neither man to give Tanaka an extra day or to replace Sabathia; Luis Cessa was and is CC’s replacement.

Both men pitched adequately for the Yankees last year, but neither is a staff-saver. And the offense is putting up huge numbers, so it would make sense to try to make the pitching as great as the hitting. The team might try to surge ahead instead of treading water. But that’s July-type thinking, and this is still only June.

And there are two concerns for the two potential front-line starters. One is the number of times each can come up and be sent down before they must pass through waivers. For Adams, at least, this figure is three. Teams don’t want to use those up early in a season.

And the other reason is each player has a little developing to do. The Yankees do not want to risk stunting, or even ruining, the careers of two highly ranked prospects by putting them in a position to fail.

What a Deep System is For

Instead, they decided to take a chance on less talented players who were excelling at the time. That’s why they called up everyone from Ronald Herrera and Ben Heller to Giovanny Gallegos instead of their two best pitchers at their highest level. Gallegos is the highest ranked player, and he comes in at 30.

They even called up Domingo German from Double-A rather than rush Adams or Acevedo to the plate. Of course, it is hard to argue with German as he has a 1.04 ERA; the Yankees have caught lightning in a bottle. But wouldn’t the odds of that luck increase if they had taken a chance on their best pitchers at Triple-A?

I think the Yankees will still give them that chance this year. But they will do it later when having either or both on the Scranton Shuttle will make more sense, when they need their best players at the most critical time of the year. That time is coming soon but is not here yet. Cashman is gambling he can wait until then to use his next, best players.

Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

What will the Yankees Record be on July 1st?

The blueprint for a season is simple. A team shows if it can contend or not by July and the organization becomes either sellers or buyers. Patient teams wait and fill in the holes, transforming their teams from good to great.

The Blue Jays, as one example, followed this thinking the last few years. On July 1^st of 2016, they were only 43-39. Over the next six weeks, they shed under performing players, traded some farms hands, and added some key free agents. It all added up to an appearance in the ALCS.

And the key is they waited. If you followed the link, you saw they were active in May and June, but their activity increased exponentially in July and August. Again, this is standard baseball thinking.

All Blueprints are Stored on the Cloud

And whether it works or not, there is also a universal design to develop pitchers. Teams want to bring them up in the late season, so they get big league experience going into the off-season, with a hoped for carryover to start spring training and, possibly, the season at the big league level.

Luis Severino followed this path in 2015, and James Kaprielian was on the same trajectory this year. Adams and Acevedo are on this road now but because of their progress, not their pre-season potential. Either way, June is too early to alter the plan.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Yankees Maxim: Lose the Battles; Win the War

So there are good reasons for the Yankees trying to save their sinking ship with a colander. They are trying to follow baseball wisdom that states a club that falls apart at any time before July is not worth saving. And it is hard to blame them for their patient approach. Even with all of their recent struggles, the team is still tied for first in the AL East.

More from Yanks Go Yard

But there are plenty of signs that the organization is getting ready for the best case scenario. I doubt 1B Tyler Austin, whose slash line is .292/.355/.552, will be more ready in two weeks than he is today. And it is curious that 3B Miguel Andujar was recently promoted to the RailRiders, despite committing ten errors at Trenton.

This is less egregious than normal since Headley has committed 13. Perhaps sensing the increased opportunity, Andujar has slashed .429/.467/.500 in his only four games.

Meanwhile, Adams keeps on keeping on. In his last start, he gave up one hit and walked two in his six innings—for a WHIP of .50—and struck out 8. For all three of these players, it is no longer if but when we will see them. We will just have to be as patient as the Cash Man.

Ironic as all Hell

There is the only flaw in the plan. Yes, baseball is long but the season can turn on one short stretch; teams can lose the trees for the forest. By waiting too long, a promising team can miss an opportunity that might not come back. We know this is a special offense. Maybe the time to support them has already arrived.

This team can still slip into oblivion over the next ten days, especially if the pitching does not come back. If they wait too long, the Yankees might not have a team worth saving anymore. Doubtful, but possible.

So it’s decision time for Cashman and the Boys. My guess is they chose continued patience, which is probably the right choice. And that means it’s white-knuckle time for the fans. If the Yankees can start winning again, we will see them transform into a super team over the next few weeks. They will prove themselves patient predators who waited to strike at the right time.

Next: If Pitching is the Problem, the Yankees 2017 Draft is the Solution

If not, if they continue to lose on a nightly basis with arms proved unworthy, and with better players within their grasp, then the dream of Aaron Judge hitting home runs in the playoffs will become a nightmare. Patience will be proven the path of the fool. And the Yankees season will devolve into that of the Mets.

No, not really: Even the Yankees pitching is better than that.

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Yankees patient approach will save the season in July, or sink it in June