The 2017 Yankees and AL East Predictions (Part 2)

The Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore has been on a good run, making the playoffs three times since 2012. They finished with the same record as the Blue Jays (89 wins) but lost to them in the Wild Card game. But this is a team on the decline, even with their young pitching starting to develop.

The O’s are not known for spending money on free agents and have decided to allow the team to disintegrate by attrition. They let Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis leave after the 2014 season. Cruz was the home run leader that year (40) while Markakis was a multi gold-glove winner.

And it’s not that the Orioles are letting most of their expensive players leave; they are making all of their players leave. This off-season Baltimore said goodbye to C Matt Wieters (17 home runs and the everyday catcher for years) and DH/3B Pedro Alvarez. They also lost UT Steve Pearce, SP Yovani Gallardo, OF Nolan Reimold and RP Vance Worley.

Subtraction by Subtraction

It is easy to argue that most of these players are not great and easy to replace. The problem for the Orioles is that they are either replacing them with lesser players or not replacing them at all. C Wellington Castillo seems capable of replacing Wieters offensive numbers but not his work with the staff.

And 34-year-old Seth Smith might put up 16 home runs again, but that will not replace Alvarez’ output. It does not seem as if the other players were replaced at all.

Those replacements will not come from the farm, either. Their top prospect, C Chance Sisco, is the 99th ranked prospect in baseball and already at Triple-A. The signing of Castillo shows what Baltimore thinks of their chances with Sisco.

This means that the team that overachieved last year will have to do it again with less talent. The hope is that their young pitchers will develop quickly. Kevin Gausman is the ace but put up only decent numbers last year: 3.61 ERA and four more hits than innings pitched. But, at 26, he could still take a big jump forward.

The same goes for Dylan Bundy. He put up a 4.02 ERA in his 14 starts but has room to grow at only 24. If Chris Tillman comes back in the first week, he will bring his 3.77 ERA with him. Those three are good to superb pitchers, but none is a top ten pitcher in baseball.

Now the Bad News

But after those three, the remaining pitchers put up ERA’s that started with five. And all bets are off if Tillman’s shoulder limits him significantly this year. Right now, however, the pitching staff would be good enough if the offense could slug its way to the playoffs. That seems less likely every year.

With sluggers like Adam Jones (29 HR’s), Chris Davis (38), Jonathan Schoop (25), Manny Machado (37) and Mark Trumbo (league-leading 47) all returning, the Orioles have a punchers chance. But Trumbo hit by far the most home runs of his career and seems likely to regress to the mean. And Davis’ .221 BA and 219 strikeouts dragged down the lineup.

In fact, all of these men had at least 115 strikeouts. The team was and remains all power and no average.

The pitching is good but not great, and the hitting is powerful but full of strikeouts. The defense, however, is just bad as Chris Bahr pointed out:

Four-time Gold Glove-winning center fielder Adam Jones recently voiced his concerns about the Orioles’ outfield defense – and for good reason. Baltimore outfielders ranked last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (-51) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-37.6) in 2016, according to FanGraphs. Mark Trumbo – who is better at first base than right field – is back, and Seth Smith – who is better known for his bat than his glove – will share right field with Trumbo and left field with Hyun Soo Kim. The Orioles hope better positioning will net better defensive results. Good luck.

The Orioles won 89 games last year. If they had upgraded at a couple of key positions, they might have ensured a playoff spot. But their inertia makes 89 a hard number to equal in 2017.

The Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays seem to share a similar timetable as the Orioles. Toronto has had a lot of success the last few years and has appeared in the last two ALCS’. And the team did everything they could to win by adding two marquee players during this run: SS Troy Tulowitzki and 3B Josh Donaldson.

But they are continuing to follow the path of the O’s and have begun to quickly drain the team of talent. Still, the strength of the team should be the same as it was in 2016: starting pitching.

Many teams would trade their starting four for the Jays‘.

They’ll have one of the best 1-5 rotations in the majors this season. At 3.64, the Jays’ rotation ERA was fourth in the majors and tops in the AL last year, and there’s reason to believe they’re even better.

Their individual ERA’s were: Aaron Sanchez 3.00; J.A. Happ 3.18; Marco Estrada 3.48; and, Marcos Stroman 4.37. And only Stroman had more hits than innings pitched (209/204). This will be an excellent staff no matter Francisco Liriano does.

Their bullpen, however, is not the equal of the starting staff, as Joshua Sandlock makes clear:

This is where it gets dicey for the Blue Jays. Their bullpen finished 22nd in baseball last year with a 4.11 ERA. Only the Texas Rangers made the playoffs with a worse bullpen. Toronto did nothing to upgrade their ‘pen in a meaningful way over the offseason.

Slow Death

But they could overcome that if the offense was at an elite or even excellent level. They did not do that last year and look less capable of doing it this year. And the offense should get worse: it lost Edwin Encarnacion. The guy hit 42 homers, 34 doubles and slugged .549.

He was replaced with 34-year-old Kendrys Morales and his respectable 30 home runs, 24 doubles, and .468 SLG. Clearly, there will be a drop off in production especially as Kendry last hit over 30 homers in 2009 and is unlikely to do it again this year.

That decline in production looks likely to come from multiple sources. C Russell Martin hit under .200 for the first two months of the season while striking out in a third of his AB’s. He finished with 20 homers but only 74 RBI’s and a slug under .400. At 34 he is unlikely to get better.

The same is probably true for Troy Tulowitzki. He put up good numbers for a SS, slashing .254/.318/.443 with 24 home runs, which would be great if he were batting 7th. But Tullo was brought over to be a middle of the order run producer. The Jays imagined he would continue to hit in the .300’s and slug in the .500’s; those days appear to be gone.

Hitting and Hoping

One player still in his prime and producing at an All-Star level is 3B Josh Donaldson. He hit .284, slugged .549, hit 37 homers and collected 99 RBI’s. Josh is still in his prime at 31 and will remain an elite player. He just needs more help.

To bolster the lineup, Toronto brought in Steve Pearce to offset the production lost from Michael Saunders. Saunders was much better in the first half than the second but still had over 550 plate appearances and hit 24 homers. Pearce is a part-time player who collected only 13 home runs in 2016.

The one player who might come back for one more monster season is Jose Bautista. It had to be both humbling and humiliating to return to the Blue Jays and the only way to avoid that fate this year is to put up big numbers. Bautista, at 36, is still capable of that.

But Father Time and recurring injuries are working against him and the rest of the team. Both Tullo and 2B/leadoff hitter Devon Travis missed significant playing time last year. This has been an on-going issue for Troy and will start to affect Joey Bats at some point sooner rather than later.

Anything is Possible

The Blue Jays, like the Orioles, are bleeding players, although they are using better band-aids. Their starting pitching is unyielding, but the offense is getting older and less productive, although they could have one more run in them.

If they do, it won’t be because of the farm system. Their top prospect, Vladimir Guerrero jr., is deep in the minors while their top pitching prospect, Sean Reid-Foley, has never pitched above Single-A. And since the Blue Jays are at the start of a rebuilding mode, they are unlikely to trade prospects.

They are going to be who they are: a good team that is slightly worse than last year.

The Boston Red Sox

The Sox won 93 games last year and the AL East; they look ready to do it all again. Only this year the balance of power might have switched from hitting to pitching. Not that they won’t be great at both, just that they could be better throwing the ball than hitting it.

That is because they switched out stars. Gone is David Ortiz. He took his 38 home runs, 127 RBI’s and .620 slugging home to the DR and into retirement. Those numbers were all easily tops on the Sox and will not be replaced. Boston did not even attempt to bring in a replacement bat.

And why should they? Their best players hit for both average and power: 24-year-old RF Mookie Betts (.318/31 home runs); 24-year-old SS Xander Bogaerts (.294/21); 2B Dustin Pedroia (33 but still in his prime–.318/15); and, 33-year-old 1B/DH Hanley Ramirez (.286/30). And while CF Jackie Bradley might have hit only .267, his OBP was .349, and he hit 26 homers.

The offense is a great mix of youth and veterans who all hit for both average and power. They might not be the same without one of the most dangerous bats in baseball, but they still look like an offensive machine.

David Who?

Fortunately for the Sox, the offense won’t have to be as good.

That’s because Boston brought in yet another ace, Chris Sale. Sale is without a doubt a top five pitcher in baseball and maybe the best pitcher in the division. The 28-year-old has averaged over 200 innings the last five years and well over 200 strikeouts. His 2016 ERA was 3.34 while his WHIP was 1.037. That was a very typical year and good enough for fifth in the Cy Young voting.

But he lost out to new teammate Rick Porcello, also 28. He was busy pitching to a 3.15 ERA and WHIP of 1.009. That was good enough for 22 wins. Fortunately, the rest of the division got a break when Boston’s other ace, David Price, had an off year. His ERA was bloated (3.99), but he still managed to pitch 230 innings and strike out 228 batters. He is hurt now, but this team can more than stay afloat while they await his return.

Add to that knuckleballer Steven Wright‘s 3.33 ERA and this staff looks ready to be the best in the division, and maybe all of baseball.

A Chink in the Armor

The bullpen lags a bit behind the other aspects of the team. It is, though, anchored by Craig Kimbrel and he happens to be one of the best closers in baseball. They brought in Tyler Thornburg and his 2.15 ERA, but they also reached out for reclamation projects Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. There is a lot of shaky ground under Boston’s bullpen.

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The saving grace for the Sox is that they will not need their bullpen as much as other clubs. Thier starting pitchers go deep into games and throw a lot of innings.

Of course, the Sox depleted its farm system to bring in players such as Price and Sale, but it has worked. And they still have the top prospect in baseball, Andrew Benintendi. He has done well enough in spring training (.322 BA/.397 OBP) to earn a starting spot in the outfield. The team just got younger and more talented.

Beyond that, the best Red Sox farm hands, players such as Rafael Devers and Jason Groome, are still years away. But who cares about the future when the Sox have a great now.

The Boston Red Sox have talent all over the field and look ready to compete at the highest level.

Now for the Predictions

Three teams come into 2017 worse than they were in 2016: Baltimore, Boston, and Tampa. The Rays were the worst team in the division last year and will remain so this year.

The Blue Jays and Orioles each won 89 games last year, but the Jays are returning with more talent. The Orioles will finish in fourth and the Jays in third. Neither will make the playoffs.

The Yankees, however, were one of the teams that improved. They have a real ace and a farm system that can either produce a front-line starter or the talent to trade for one. That is a huge advantage over the other teams. Their offense looks ready to be a dominant force in the division, and they will slug their way to second in the East and a playoff berth.

Yankees Sanchez And Bird Form Mutual Admiration Society

But Bird and Sanchez must have seen it, even back in 2014, and thought about playing together in Yankees uniforms. Now those dreams have become reality.

And the Red Sox will repeat as winners of the AL East and one of the scariest teams in the playoffs. They have possibly three aces on the staff and some of the best young talent in the game.

The Yankees have a bright future, and I look forward to seeing their young talent develop. The Orioles and Blue Jays have been slugging their way to the postseason, and now it is starting to be the Yankees turn. But the future is now for the Red Sox. As much as I look forward to the 2018 playoffs and beyond, I might skip watching baseball in late October this year.