The Yankees Starting Rotation: Can It Suffice For 2017?

The 2017 Yankees. Oh boy… where to begin? While the New York Yankees look to boast a formidable lineup and bullpen heading into Opening Day, its rotation is one giant question mark.

While Masahiro Tanaka has been steady yet perhaps underwhelming since his 2015 MLB debut, it is unrealistic to expect an above average season out of any of the other arms.

In a previous post, I pointed out a few of the burning questions facing the team heading into 2017. In the fourth installment of this weekly series, let’s take a lot at what Yankees fans can expect from the team’s starting pitchers.

Masahiro Tanaka– Yankees RHP

While Tanaka earned the seventh-most votes for the American League Cy Young Award in 2017, his MLB statistics have not been the video game-like numbers he previously produced across the Pacific. Tanaka’s 3.07 ERA ranked third best in the AL, but that statistic is perhaps a testament to the overall mediocrity of AL pitching last season more so than Tanaka’s success.

The Japanese hurler was on track to turn in his first full season the majors since his 2014 rookie campaign before suffering a strained flexor mass in his right elbow during the final week of the season. The righty previously suffered an elbow injury in 2014 when he partially tore his ulnar collateral ligament. Tanaka has been able to dance around Tommy John surgery thus far, but could 2017 be the season his arm gives out on him?

Aside from injury concerns, fans should be wary of his declining velocity. Despite being just 28 years old, Tanaka has seen the velocity on his fastball and sinker decline each year since joining the majors. In 2016, Tanaka’s primary pitch was his sinker, which he threw 27.73% of the time. According to Brooks Baseball, the average velocity on his sinker dipped from 91.69 in 2015 to 90.37 in 2016.

If he can continue to locate his sinker down and away to hitters, he will still be able to induce ground balls at an impressive rate. Last season, 48% of balls put in play against Tanaka were grounders — the 22nd best in the majors. If ground ball rate drops, the Yankees rotation could be in real trouble, as he generated swings-and-misses on just 23.55% of pitches swung at — a very average MLB clip (62nd best in the league).

Despite these concerns, if Tanaka can replicate (or improve upon) his 2016 performance, he will maintain his reputation of one of the more reliable pitchers in the American League — which is an absolute necessity for the Yankees if they hope to make a playoff push this season.

C C Sabathia – Yankees LHP

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The former Yankees ace enjoyed a bounce back season in 2016 after a dismal performance from 2013-2015. Over the course of those three seasons, the left-hander pitched to a 23-27 record with a 4.81 ERA in just 424.1 innings.

C C Sabathia almost entirely stopped throwing a four-seamer in 2016 (just 1.96% of his pitches) and begun throwing a cutter (31.6% of his pitches, up from 0.60% in 2015). By adding movement to his fastball, the hurler reinvented himself as a ground ball pitcher.

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In fact, Sabathia’s 50.1 GB% was the 16th best in the MLB last season, even slightly higher than Tanaka’s. The Vallejo, California-native proved he can still be an elite force on the mound, as he worked to an MLB-best 0.82 ERA over 44 innings (seven starts) from May 4-June 16 last season.

Unfortunately for Yankees fans, over Sabathia’s 19 remaining starts, he worked to a ballooned 4.88 ERA and went 4-8, and struck out 96 and walked 38 over 114.1 innings.

Sabathia underwent surgery on his right knee after season’s end but is expected to be healthy heading into spring training. Yankees fans can expect Sabathia to post another serviceable yet unflattering season. For most teams, Sabathia would slot in as the #4 or #5 starter, but for Yankees fans: say hello to your #2 starter.

Michael Pineda– Yankees RHP

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I’ve following the Yankees since I was a little kid, and I have never endured as much frustration watching a pitcher as I feel when Pineda takes the mound. Despite posting an atrocious 4.82 ERA and a 6-12 record in 32 starts (175.2 innings), Pineda still managed to strikeout 207 hitters — the sixth most in the AL, and led the league with a 10.6 K/9 innings pitched.

Pineda’s primary problem in 2016 was his inability to get out of innings. His opposition hit just.234 AVG/.284 OBP/.403 SLG with no outs and .231 AVG/.292 OBP/.370 SLG with one out. Pineda could never seem to trot through the inning’s finish line, as hitters rocked him to a .325 AVG/.383 OBP/.598 SLG clip with two away.

People around the game hypothesize that Pineda could have a bounce back year every offseason, but I’ve given up hope. That said, perhaps Pineda will exert more effort in each of his starts this season, as he is set to hit free agency next winter. Given Pineda’s blazing fastball, a devastating changeup, and sharp biting slider, one above average season could net him a luxurious contract on the market — as we saw this offseason with LHP Rich Hill.

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One statistic that suggests perhaps Pineda just has the worst luck in baseball is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP). His 3.30 xFIP is the lowest in the MLB heading into the 2017 season. For those unfamiliar, this metric judges a pitcher’s performance on results that do not involve the defense such as strikeouts-walks, home runs allowed, hit by pitch and fly balls allowed to remove the randomness involved in baseball.

According to FanGraphs, xFIP is calculated in the same way as FIP, except it replaces a pitcher’s home run total with an estimate of how many home runs they should have allowed given the number of fly balls they surrendered, while assuming a league average home run to fly ball percentage (between 9 and 10% depending on the year).

Is Pineda only ineffective or unbelievably unlucky? Yankees fans will soon find out, perhaps for the final time if he departs via free agency.

The Other Ones

With the start of spring training games coming around, several young arms will have the chance to compete for the final two rotation spots. The Yankees organization showed how firmly it believes in its youngsters by electing not to sign a free agent arm such as Hill or Tyson Ross.

Let’s take a look at who could be rounding out the rotation to start the season.

Chad Green: Green was on and off for the Yankees in 2016. He showed glimpses of brilliance,

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such as his August 15 start in which he shutout Toronto for six innings and struck out 11 Blue Jays. The 25-year-old right-hander dominated in AAA Scranton-Wilkes/Barre before his promotion, as he pitched to a 1.52 ERA in 16 starts (94.2 IP), and worked to an impressive 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Green’s season ended prematurely at the start of September when he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL and strained flexor tendon in his right elbow. While he was able to avoid Tommy John surgery, elbow injury’s can be tough to overcome, and fans should keep a close eye on Green this spring.

Luis Severino: Severino struggling mightily as a starter in 2016, and was demoted to the minor

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leagues twice. In 11 starts (47.2 IP), the 22-year-old right-hander was rocked to an 8.50 ERA, allowing opponents to hit .337 AVG/.389 OBP/.587 SLG. His season was an entirely different story after moving to the ‘pen, as he worked to a 0.39 ERA in 11 appearances (23.1 IP), with a 9.5 K/9. Severino has reportedly worked with Yankees-nemesis Pedro Martinez this offseason to regain his form as a starter, but perhaps he has found his calling in the bullpen.

Bryan Mitchell:

The 25-year-old right-hander returned in the final month of 2016 after series of injuries limited his action from 2015-2016. Mitchell looked stellar in his limited action, as he worked to a 3.24 ERA in five September starts (25.0 IP), but walked more (12) than he struck out (11).

Luis Cessa:

Acquired alongside Green in a trade with the Detroit Tigers at the 2015-2016 winter meetings, Cessa will compete with his longtime teammate this spring. Cessa was perhaps the most reliable arm of these four for the Yankees in 2016, as he pitched to a 4.35 ERA in 17 games (nine starts, 70.1 IP) and struck out 46 compared to 16 walks allowed.

Next: Yankees Hard-Knocks Approach To Spring Training

Who do you think deserves the final two spots in the rotation before they duke it out in spring training? Do you feel the rotation is serviceable enough to give the Yankees a shot at a postseason run? Leave us a comment or tweet at us with your thoughts.

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