What Has to Happen for the 2017 Yankees to Make the Playoffs

A Return to Form from Matt Holliday

Just to maintain pace with last year’s team, the Yankees are really counting on Matt Holliday to replace Carlos Beltran‘s production in the middle of the lineup. The 39-year-old Beltran was easily New York’s best hitter for most of the season, putting up a .304/.344/.546 (133 OPS+) with 22 home runs and 64 RBI in 359 plate appearances before being dealt at the deadline.

There’s no doubt Holliday has the ability to put up a line like that, but after struggling with injuries the last two seasons, it is an open question whether he can stay healthy enough to do so.

A big part of Beltran’s strong season last year was that he got the additional rest of playing most days at DH after being the club’s primary right fielder the previous two seasons. Moving to DH full-time was a big part of A-Rod’s 2015 renaissance as well. It’s reasonable to expect Holliday to experience a similar jump in production without the stress on his body of having to play the field every day.

Over his 13 year career, Holliday has accumulated a .303/.382/.515 (134 OPS+) slash line while averaging 27 home runs and 105 RBI per season. If the 37-year-old is able to hold off Father Time for one more year and put up vintage Holliday numbers, it would go a long way towards making the Yanks legitimate contenders next year.

Find a Number Two Starter

While I would prefer general manager Brian Cashman go out and trade for an established number two starter to slot in behind Masahiro Tanaka (Jose Quintana and Sonny Gray are at the top of my wishlist), more realistically the Yankees will need to fill that vacancy with the guys they already have in the organization.

The good news is they have no shortage of talented arms with the ability to become a frontline starter. Both Michael Pineda and Luis Severino looked like they might be ready for a breakout season coming out of the gate last year before falling flat, but they still have all of the components to be that kind of pitcher, it’s just a matter of putting it all together.

Big Mike looked dominant for long stretches of 2016 and finished as the league leader in strikeouts per nine innings with 10.605 K/9. His peripheral stats continue to suggest a breakout is coming, even as he puts up ugly run prevention numbers. At this point I’m not holding my breath, but it definitely is possible he has a dominant season in him.

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Severino was much worse than Pineda in 2016, but was clearly rushed to the big leagues, and still looks like a quality starter in the long run if he can regain his confidence and get his changeup to be somewhere around an MLB average offering. The plus heater and wipeout slider are already in place, so maybe all his work on the change will start to pay off next spring.

The dark horse in this race is not yet on the 40-man roster, but was arguably the best pitcher in the minor leagues last season. In his first season as a starter, converted college closer Chance Adams put up a 2.33 ERA in 127.1 innings of work between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced (10.2 K/9) while walking 7.9% (2.8 BB/9).

The 22-year-old righty has an MLB-quality arsenal just two years after being selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. He pairs a mid-90’s fastball with a hard slider that is his best secondary offering. He also throws a change and curve that are works in progress, but good enough to keep hitters off balance.

Because the Yankees have so many other starters in camp expected to compete for the two open rotation jobs, it is an extreme long shot that Adams even gets considered for the big league club until the second half, but I would love to see what he could do with regular turns over a full season. He looks ready right now.

Baby Bombers Sanchez, Bird, and Judge Need to Rake

Although Gary Sanchez is the only youngster likely to begin the season in the middle of the Yankees lineup, this team is built around the idea that Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Aaron Judge will be the heart of New York’s order, with Clint Frazier another possibility.

Sanchez doesn’t need to keep up his 2016 pace, but the team is counting on him to hit 20-25 bombs with solid plate discipline and at least average defense behind the dish. If he falters either offensively or as the starting catcher, this whole thing could fall apart pretty quickly.

The health of Greg Bird’s shoulder is probably the lineup’s biggest wild card going into 2017. If he’s fully recovered and hits like he did during his MLB debut in 2015, the Yankees would have a dangerous middle of the order that could rival any other American League contender.

It seems much more likely from what we saw during the Arizona Fall League though that Bird will take some time to get back to his old self, maybe even requiring a stint in Triple-A to begin the year. If that happens, New York’s offense looks a lot less imposing.

Next: Rotation or Pen for These Yankees Pitchers?

Finally, how Aaron Judge adjusts to hitting major league pitching will have huge implications for how far the Yankees can go in 2017. If he can cut his strikeout rate down to around 25% and knock 30 long balls while doing a credible job in right, he could be a three to four win player, win AL Rookie of the Year, and take over a spot in the middle of the order. It’s also completely possible he’s a colossal bust right out the gate and New York plays a below replacement level Aaron Hicks in right..