Yankees Should Stay Far Away from These Three Free Agents

The New York Yankees should avoid these three big-name free agents in their search to upgrade the 2017 roster this winter.

A rebuilding team needs to be especially careful when adding veteran free agents, especially when they are operating on a budget, as the New York Yankees clearly are this winter. The team seems likely to have just enough payroll room to an add an arm or two via free agency this winter and maybe a bat if we are lucky.

The 2017 club could be better than many fans think if certain things break the right way, but choosing the right veteran reinforcements during the offseason could be one of the key determining factors in whether or not the Yankees are contenders this year.

There are some interesting buy-low opportunities available on the market, but also many mediocre talents who are going to be vastly overpaid because of a fluky 2016 performance.

The most egregious example of this is Ivan Nova, who is ranked 10th on MLB Trade Rumors list of the 2016-2017 Top 50 Free Agents and is expected to sign in the neighborhood of four years and $52 million this winter.

After missing the majority of the 2014 season to Tommy John and being terrible for most of 2015-2016 with the Yankees, Nova is set to cash in with one of the biggest deals of any free agent because of 11 strong starts with Pittsburgh. The only reason he’s not one of the top three guys New York should avoid is because I know Brian Cashman is far too smart to fall for that nonsense.

These other three free agents have been suggested as potential fits for the Yankees by other analysts, but seem like potential clunkers who could turn back into pumpkins after signing.

Mark Trumbo

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan recently called the market for Trumbo “bustling” when reporting that the slugger is expected to reject a $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. After leading the American League in home runs it isn’t surprising that many clubs would be interested in Trumbo. Power is always in high demand and Trumbo has a strong track record of providing it.

If you look past that one skill, however, things are pretty ugly. It’s important to remember that the Orioles acquired Trumbo basically for nothing last offseason. Prior to this year, Trumbo had managed to accumulate a grand total of 0.5 WAR over his previous two seasons, meaning he was roughly replacement level despite clubbing a combined 36 homers.

Even during his big breakout campaign this season, Baseball-Reference estimates Trumbo was worth just 1.6 wins above replacement. When you consider that an average regular contributes two wins annually to his team, Trumbo’s limitations are apparent.

If Trumbo’s power isn’t at its absolute peak, he has little left to offer. He’s always been a horrible defender wherever you play him. Even as a designated hitter, his poor baserunning and subpar on-base skill sap his overall value.

MLBTR expects a four year $60 million contract for Trumbo this winter, even with a qualifying offer attached. There are plenty of better veteran hitters available who could be had on modest one or two year deals and wouldn’t require the Yankees to surrender a draft pick to sign. Carlos Beltran, Steve Pearce, and Luis Valbuena all jump to mind. And if New York is going to drop that kind of cash on an aging slugger, why not go all in on Edwin Encarnacion?

Kenley Jansen

Don’t get me wrong, Jansen has been an elite reliever for the last six seasons for the Dodgers. He has a career 2.20 ERA and 1.93 FIP over 408.2 career innings, striking out an absurd 39.8 batters he’s faced in his career (13.9 K/9).

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Generally speaking, though, I’m opposed to signing relievers to long-term deals, and there are enough red flags with Jansen that I think he will provide the worst value of any of the four excellent free agent closers this winter.

First, Jansen comes with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, and Greg Holland. For a team committed to building from within, holding onto that pick each year is a big deal. The minor league system wouldn’t be quite as exciting without Blake Rutherford or James Kaprielian (New York’s last two first rounders). Those guys are expected to be a big part of the organization’s future.

Second, Jansen will probably do fine with the transition to the American League and the Bronx, but he hasn’t been battle tested already like Chapman. This could be a Craig Kimbrel situation where he is still good after making the switch to the AL, but just isn’t as dominant anymore.

It’s also worth considering that Jansen is basically a one-trick pony with a single amazing pitch, a cutter which he throws roughly 90% of the time. When Aroldis Chapman’s velocity begins to dip in the later years of his deal, he can offset the loss by relying more on his slider. Jansen has no clear backup plan.

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Granted, the greatest closer in Yankees history, Mariano Rivera, also basically just threw a cutter, but Jansen has a lot to prove before he can be considered anywhere near Mo’s class. I’m not saying it’s impossible he earns his big contract, just that I’d prefer New York go after Chapman, Melancon, or Holland.