Yankees Should Stay Far Away from These Three Free Agents

Mark Trumbo

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan recently called the market for Trumbo “bustling” when reporting that the slugger is expected to reject a $17.2 million qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. After leading the American League in home runs it isn’t surprising that many clubs would be interested in Trumbo. Power is always in high demand and Trumbo has a strong track record of providing it.

If you look past that one skill, however, things are pretty ugly. It’s important to remember that the Orioles acquired Trumbo basically for nothing last offseason. Prior to this year, Trumbo had managed to accumulate a grand total of 0.5 WAR over his previous two seasons, meaning he was roughly replacement level despite clubbing a combined 36 homers.

Even during his big breakout campaign this season, Baseball-Reference estimates Trumbo was worth just 1.6 wins above replacement. When you consider that an average regular contributes two wins annually to his team, Trumbo’s limitations are apparent.

If Trumbo’s power isn’t at its absolute peak, he has little left to offer. He’s always been a horrible defender wherever you play him. Even as a designated hitter, his poor baserunning and subpar on-base skill sap his overall value.

MLBTR expects a four year $60 million contract for Trumbo this winter, even with a qualifying offer attached. There are plenty of better veteran hitters available who could be had on modest one or two year deals and wouldn’t require the Yankees to surrender a draft pick to sign. Carlos Beltran, Steve Pearce, and Luis Valbuena all jump to mind. And if New York is going to drop that kind of cash on an aging slugger, why not go all in on Edwin Encarnacion?

Jason Hammel

The Chicago Cubs made the very classy move of declining Jason Hammel’s $12 million 2017 option, which seemed like a lock to many analysts, allowing him to hit the free-agent market as one of the better available arms, rather than pick it up and shop him this winter. Cubs PBOp Theo Epstein explained:

The intent was never to exercise the option and then trade Jason, so we will not consider that path. Instead, Jason will have the opportunity to enter free agency coming off an outstanding season and the ability to choose his next club.

Hammel turned in his second straight solid season for Chicago, pitching to a 3.83 ERA in 166.2 IP (30 GS), although his 4.48 FIP suggests that some luck played a role in his success. He had a 3.74 ERA and 3.68 FIP in 170.2 IP the previous year.

The veteran right-hander is not a bad pitcher by many means, but he’s probably best suited for the senior circuit at this point in his career. His last two stints in the American League, with Oakland in the second half of 2014 and 2013 in Baltimore, were pretty ugly.

If the Yankees were to give him the three-year $42 million that MLBTR predicts, they would be getting his age 34-through-36 seasons. As a flyball pitcher, Hammel is already a bad fit for Yankee Stadium, but if he begins to decline at all (and his slipping peripherals this year indicate that could be happening already) things could get ugly sooner rather than later.

At this point, I’d probably rather see what some of the Yankees young depth arms like Chad Green and Luis Cessa could do with a full season in the rotation rather than make a big commitment to Hammel. There seems to be a good chance the results wouldn’t be all that different.

Kenley Jansen

Don’t get me wrong, Jansen has been an elite reliever for the last six seasons for the Dodgers. He has a career 2.20 ERA and 1.93 FIP over 408.2 career innings, striking out an absurd 39.8 batters he’s faced in his career (13.9 K/9).

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Generally speaking, though, I’m opposed to signing relievers to long-term deals, and there are enough red flags with Jansen that I think he will provide the worst value of any of the four excellent free agent closers this winter.

First, Jansen comes with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, and Greg Holland. For a team committed to building from within, holding onto that pick each year is a big deal. The minor league system wouldn’t be quite as exciting without Blake Rutherford or James Kaprielian (New York’s last two first rounders). Those guys are expected to be a big part of the organization’s future.

Second, Jansen will probably do fine with the transition to the American League and the Bronx, but he hasn’t been battle tested already like Chapman. This could be a Craig Kimbrel situation where he is still good after making the switch to the AL, but just isn’t as dominant anymore.

It’s also worth considering that Jansen is basically a one-trick pony with a single amazing pitch, a cutter which he throws roughly 90% of the time. When Aroldis Chapman’s velocity begins to dip in the later years of his deal, he can offset the loss by relying more on his slider. Jansen has no clear backup plan.

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Granted, the greatest closer in Yankees history, Mariano Rivera, also basically just threw a cutter, but Jansen has a lot to prove before he can be considered anywhere near Mo’s class. I’m not saying it’s impossible he earns his big contract, just that I’d prefer New York go after Chapman, Melancon, or Holland.