Yankees Could Look to Arizona in Search for Starting Pitching Help

Sep 29, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 29, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
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Sep 26, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Archie Bradley (25) throws to the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 26, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Archie Bradley (25) throws to the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /

Despite their 2016 struggles, the Arizona Diamondbacks starting rotation features several enticing trade targets for the New York Yankees.

A fire sale could be on the horizon for the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the news that the club would be firing their manager, general manager, and VP, as well as taking president of baseball operations duties away from Tony LaRussa. If the new front office decides to rebuild, the New York Yankees could kick the tires on some of Arizona’s talented starting pitchers.

It is no secret that the Yankees are expected to shop for controllable young starters this winter. The future of their rotation was uncertain even before losing Nathan Eovaldi to TJ surgery next year. Their farm system is extremely deep in quality position players, so it seems likely they will use that depth to shore up their questionable pitching staff at some point soon.

The Snakes rotation was a disappointment in 2016 despite the presence of some big names. The unit combined to earn just eight wins above replacement according to FanGraphs, which ranked 21st in MLB, while pitching to a 5.19 ERA which was the second-worst in all of baseball.

All of the Diamondbacks expected four best starters wildly under-performed expectations in 2016, but their track records and pedigree could make them interested buy-low candidates for the Yankees. Here’s a look at how interested New York might be in acquiring each one:

Sep 16, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) pitches during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 16, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) pitches during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Zack Greinke

Just one season in, the six year $206.5 million contract Greinke signed last winter looks like a potential huge disaster. While the previous administration made it clear that Greinke would not be available this offseason, it seems likely the new front office could feel very differently.

The 32-year-old righty had the best season of any D’Backs starter with a 4.37 ERA and 4.12 FIP in 158.2 IP (2.3 rWAR), but nowhere near the Cy Young award runner-up he was the previous year. Greinke is a sabermetric darling who was expected to age well by nerds because of his apparent intelligence and use of analytics, but those skills did not help him last year.

In the past, this is exactly the kind of player the Yankees would have targeted, but now there is virtually zero chance that they will take on Greinke’s contract this offseason unless Arizona is interested taking on Jacoby Ellsbury in return.

Personally, I’m a big fan of Greinke and would love to see him in pinstripes. He’s one of the few players in baseball who will say exactly what he thinks and is a lot of fun to watch when he’s on. He seems like a solid bet to bounce-back to somewhere near his career norms next year, but I do understand why Hal Steinbrenner might not want to gamble $172 million on that happening.

Sep 23, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Shelby Miller (26) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 23, 2016; Baltimore, MD, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Shelby Miller (26) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports /

Shelby Miller

As with Greinke, the new Arizona front office may be more willing to trade Shelby Miller this offseason because they were not the ones who paid such a steep price to bring him in.

Miller was a complete disaster in 2016, with a 6.15 ERA and 4.87 FIP in 101 IP. His run prevention improved during his final six starts after returning from a stint in the minors (3.92 ERA in 31.2 IP), but the underlying peripherals are still worrying.

At age 25, there is plenty of reason to think a more competent club could turn Miller around. He accumulated 8.6 wins above replacement in his previous three seasons for Atlanta and St. Louis.

His mechanics are clearly are clearly a complete mess at this point. The fact that he injured his hand by scraping his knuckles on the ground back in April are a pretty good indication of that. The Yankees have a solid track record of fixing pitchers that Arizona messed up in recent years. Both Brandon McCarthy and Tyler Clippard flourished after leaving the desert for the Bronx.

The problem is it’s not really clear how to value Miller. Obviously he’s not worth what he was last winter, but the Diamondbacks also can’t just give him away. New York would need to be pretty confident in their ability to get him right to surrender top prospects for him.

The upside to acquiring Miller at a discount is tremendous. If it works out, the Yankees would be acquiring two seasons of a legitimate number two starter. I would guess at least one top 100 type guy would be necessary to land him, meaning Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Mateo, Aaron Judge, Blake Rutherford, or Justus Sheffield.

I wouldn’t be thrilled about giving up any of those guys for Miller, although I can appreciate why someone might want to make that move.

September 7, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) throws in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sport
September 7, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Robbie Ray (38) throws in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sport /

Robbie Ray

While Ray’s ERA jumped up almost a run and a half from 2015 to 4.90, his solid peripherals indicate he was the victim of some bad luck along the way. He saw a huge jump in strikeouts from the previous year, from 8.4 to 11.3 K/9. He did see a slight corresponding increase in walks and homers.

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Ray’s name may sound familiar to Yankees fans because he was part of the Didi GregoriusShane Greene three-way swap with Detroit and Arizona. The 25-year-old lefty has five quality pitches. He mixes a mid-90’s four-seamer, a sinker, slider, change, and curve.

Control is definitely an issue for Ray, walking 9.2% of the batters he faced this year, however one plus is that he’s already shown he can succeed in one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball. Yankee Stadium was the only stadium that rated more highly than Arizona’s Chase Field by ESPN’s 2016 MLB Park Factors.

Ray seems like one of the better fits for the Yankees of this group. He comes with four years of team control and isn’t even arbitration eligible until after next season. He doesn’t have the same ceiling as Greinke or Miller, but would slot in as a solid number three or four.

Sep 4, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 4, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /

Patrick Corbin

The main selling point on Patrick Corbin was his excellent 2013 season, where he looked like an emerging front-of-the-rotation option. In 208.1 innings of work and 32 starts that year, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA and 3.43 FIP while making his first All-Star squad.

After missing the entire 2014 season and part of 2015 following TJ surgery, Corbin made 16 solid starts last year, but hasn’t carried over that success to this season. He finished 2016 with a 5.15 ERA and 4.84 FIP in 155.2 IP.

Corbin more than doubled his walk total from last year, from 1.8 BB/9 to 3.8 BB/9. Yankees fans saw with Ivan Nova the effect that TJ can have one a pitcher’s control (although apparently Ray Searage can still fix that). His homers also increased from 1 HR/9 last year to 1.4 this season.

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While Corbin’s value is down, Arizona may still be inclined to move him given the extreme seller’s market for starting pitching that is expected. At 27 with two years of team control remaining, they can probably get a solid return for Corbin despite his ugly season.

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