Evaluating the New York Yankees Current 2017 Rotation Options

The New York Yankees will enter 2017 with three established major league starters who, barring injury, are nearly certain to begin next year as members of the teams starting rotation.

Ace Masahiro Tanaka can opt-out following the 2017 season, but until then, he’s far and away the best pitcher on the team. The partial UCL tear in his right elbow will always be in the back of everyone’s minds, but it’s hard to overstate how important Tanaka’s consistency has been for the team’s pitching staff this year.

With a 3.04 ERA and 3.23 FIP through his first 29 starts, the 27-year-old is on the short list for the American League Cy Young award in the season’s final month. Aside from the ever-present injury concern, Tanaka is the one true lock for the Yankees 2017 rotation.

The two other returning veterans come with some serious questions about their performance. Michael Pineda is one of baseball’s most prolific strikeout artists, doesn’t give up many free passes, and keeps the ball in the yard, but is a master of finding new and increasingly frustrating ways to blow games.

Big Mike is entering the final year of his contract next year at age 28. At this point the Yankees can’t really count on him for more than being a decent back-of-the-rotation type, although he continues to trick fans and presumably the team into believing he might be more.

The final returning vet will be CC Sabathia assuming his 2017 option vests. The 36-year-old has been one of the league’s very worst starters over the past four years, and despite a brief turnaround earlier in the season, there is very little reason to expect that to change in 2017.

New York could do worse than having Sabathia and Pineda as their number four and five starters, but at the moment they are being counted on to fill the number two and three slots, which isn’t wise for an aspiring contender.

Next: The Kids

Rookies Luis Cessa and Chad Green have looked like potential building blocks for the rotation at times this year, but there are legitimate reasons for concern about their future.

The trade that brought Luis Cessa and Chad Green over from the Detroit Tigers for Justin Wilson last winter was widely criticized by fans at the time, but may end up being the move that launched the Yankees into the 2016 postseason.

Cessa and Green spent the majority of the season as two of the best starters in the International League. Green had a 1.52 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 95.2 Triple-A innings in between big league mop-up assignments, while Cessa had a 3.03 ERA and 8 K/9 in 77.1 IP with Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

With the spring injury to Bryan Mitchell, the ineffectiveness of Luis Severino, and finally the loss of Eovaldi for the season, both rookies eventually found themselves paired together in the Yankees rotation.

While the pair has a 4.96 ERA in 13 starts combined, that number is inflated by a handful of disasters. On the whole, both Green and Cessa have looked like capable big league starters. It’s telling that New York is 7-3 with one of the two rookies on the mound since August 1st.

That is a huge boost from two guys who began the year probably eighth and ninth on the starting pitching depth chart, even if their performances haven’t been perfect.

One factor that’s a little worrying is the elbow injury that ended Green’s season after his last start on September 2nd. Although he expects to avoid TJ surgery and will reportedly be ready to go in the spring, any arm injury to a young pitcher still trying to establish himself is going to be a red flag. 

At this point, it seems likely that neither Green nor Cessa will be handed a rotation spot for 2017. They will probably have the opportunity to battle for the one or two open jobs in the spring, but are probably better suited as depth pieces in the bullpen or Triple-A until they prove otherwise.

Next: The Swingmen

Three pitchers currently with the team have had success in both the rotation and the bullpen in the past, leaving their future roles unclear.

Although the majority of his big league appearances have come as a reliever, Bryan Mitchell has been quietly impressive as a starter since being activated off the 60-day disabled list in late August. Despite missing the majority of the season with a fractured toe, Mitchell was thrust into a rotation job following just two tune-up starts for Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre.

Mitchell seemed to be on the verge of a breakout following a dominant spring training, so he may be the biggest benefactor of New York’s thin starting pitching options this month. If he keeps up his success, he can probably push ahead of Green and/or Cessa on the depth chart to land a spot next spring.

Luis Severino was seen by many as the Yankees number two starter coming into the 2016 season after posting a 2.89 ERA over 62.1 IP in last year’s pennant race. An 8.58 ERA in nine starts shattered that illusion pretty quickly, and his recent string of dominance in the bullpen has many questioning whether that is the role to which he is better suited.

The 22-year-old hasn’t given up an earned run over his first 16.2 IP as a reliever, while striking out 19 and holding opposing batters to a .074/.180/.111 slash line. New York’s decision makers insist he will remain a starter, but the better he becomes at his current role, the more difficult it will be to move him out of it.

Last but not least, it’s easy to forget that Adam Warren was one of the Yankees better starting pitchers just last year, compiling a 3.66 ERA in 96 IP. He’s worked almost exclusively out of the pen this year, but New York usually likes to bring him to spring training stretched out as a starter just in case. If some of the younger options falter or fall to injury, Warren is a nice safety net.

Next: The Farm

Four minor league starters put themselves in position to crack the 2017 rotation with strong campaigns in the upper-minors this year.

Maybe the most exciting minor league option for the Yankees 2017 rotation was even a starter at this time last year. Converted reliever Chance Adams has exceeded all expectations in 2016. With a 2.33 ERA and 10.2 K/9 in 127.1 IP split between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, the 22-year-old pushed his way to the 13th spot on MLB Pipeline’s list of Yankees prospects and landed a spot on Baseball America’s Minor League All-Star Team.

BA’s write-up on Adams notes that his .169 opponent batting average allowed this year is the second lowest among all qualified minor pitchers since 1993. He’s got a well-rounded arsenal that looks ready for prime time, with a mid-90’s heater, plus slider, and serviceable change.

The Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre rotation also features three promising arms that could have an impact at some point in 2017. Jordan Montgomery made it to the top of the Yankees’ minor league season in just his third professional season, pitching to a 2.13 ERA and 8.7 K/9 in 139.1 IP split between Double-A and the Railriders. 

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As gaudy as Monty’s numbers look, they can’t compare with those of 25-year-old lefty Dietrich Enns, who came out of nowhere last season with a 0.61 ERA in 12 starts, and has not come back to Earth yet, compiling a 1.73 ERA and 8.3 K/9 in 135 IP in the upper-minors.

Scouts don’t love Enns’ stuff and see him as a fringy spot-starter type, but if he continues to pitch like this in Triple-A, he will eventually earn a chance in the rotation.

The dark horse for the 2017 Yankees rotation is 2015 first round pick James Kaprielian, who only made three starts this year because of persistent elbow issues. However, Kaprielian looked like a fast riser before the injury, striking out 22 in 18 IP for High-A Tampa following an impressive stint in big league spring training.

Next: Which Yankees are in Danger of Being Lost in Rule 5 Draft?

New York will likely take it slow with Kaprielian’s recovery, but there are rumors he might be ready to pitch in the Arizona Fall League in October, which would go a long way towards launching him into the upper-minors by next July. If the stars align and the big league club is once again searching for starting depth, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where Kaprielian plays the savior.