Projecting Yankees Budding Star Aaron Judge

Hopes are sky-high for top prospect Aaron Judge after the Yankees rightfielder homered in his first two games and won the third with an RBI double. Can he live up to his lofty expectations?

Baseball history is short on examples of players like New York Yankees Aaron Judge. Since 1900, only 13 non-pitchers who were 6’7 or taller have made it to the major leagues, including Judge. Of that group, only three managed to accumulate one win above replacement in their careers.

The two success stories are outfielder Frank Howard (37.6 WAR) and first baseman Tony Clark (12.5 WAR). But then throw in the fact that Judge is 275 lbs, and it becomes clear that there has never been a player built like Judge who has played everyday in Major League Baseball.

With his massive strike zone, it isn’t a surprise that Judge has racked up impressive strikeout totals throughout the minor leagues. The ZiPS projection system estimated he will put up K’s in 34.9% of his plate appearances based on his track record, which would obviously be unsustainable if he wants to succeed at this level.

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At 6’6 and 285 lbs, one not-so-flattering comparable for Judge could be the man who ranks third on the all-time strikeouts list, Adam Dunn. Big Donkey did sock 462 career home runs and was a outfielder early in his career before being relegated to a basically immobile DH.

Although they are similar in size, Judge is a much better athlete than Dunn ever was, so there is hope he can be a little more well rounded.

Another often cited comp for Judge is Marlins rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who is 6’6, but a considerably more slender 240 lbs. Stanton possesses the most pure strength of any MLB slugger and is a perennial MVP candidate when healthy.

It’s a huge stretch to imagine Judge coming anywhere close to Stanton’s level after just a few career games, but that could be the absolute best case scenario. Yankees fans can dream.

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On the more pessimistic side, Judge ranked 70th on Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 list, which projects the expected wins above replacement for the first six seasons of a MiLB player’s major league career. KATOH pegs the big man for 4.6 WAR over those six years of team control, which would obviously be a huge disappointment to Yankees fans, who see Judge as a superstar in the making.

That ranking is considerably lower than the 27th spot Judge earned on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 or even the 42nd on Baseball America’s list. Mitchell has found that one of the primary indicators of how well a minor leaguer when making the jump to the big leagues is strikeout rate, so it’s no surprise that KATOH isn’t a big fan of Judge.

Encouragingly, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection system sees Judge as the Yankees best hitter down the stretch by OPS and wOBA, even if he’s expected to have some issues making contact. ZiPS thinks Judge will hit .228/.290/.473 with six homers in 99 plate appearances the rest of the way, which feels about right.

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That’s not superstar production by any means, but it’s probably safe to expect a learning curve for Judge this year as big league pitchers exploit the holes in his big swing. At the same time, Judge’s raw power is undeniable. That alone should make him the team’s most exciting player over the next few seasons.