Brett Gardner is Not a Lead-off Hitter

Yankees left-fielder Brett Gardner is a bit of a cult-hero in the minds of many fans. And while his heart and hustle may lend itself to that designation, his numbers as a leadoff hitter don’t.

It’s never easy to explain to a fellow fan of the New York Yankees as to why their favorite particular player may or may not be aptly suited for a role in the batting order in which they are currently situated in; especially if they have done the job there in years past.

But I will do my best to explain, via the numbers, why it is that Brett Gardner should not be leading off for a Yankees team that currently finds themselves only four games back of a Wild Card spot. And no, backing up your argument with a statement like; there isn’t anyone better on the team to do so; will not be accepted as a good counter argument!

At 32 years of age, Gardner’s best playing days are likely behind him. Which is fine, you can’t run away from father time forever. But on a whole, Gardy is having a miserable year as compared to 2015, and all signs point to an even a further depreciated value over the span of the next two and a half seasons, up until his guaranteed contract runs out in 2018 (there is a team option in 2019 for $15M, or a $2M buyout).

No, Gardner’s six home runs aren’t much to be dismayed by, not since he’s never been much of a power threat (career high 17 HR in 2014), but those 26 RBI, as compared to last seasons 66, is a real concern.

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Perhaps this is why manager Joe Girardi moved him to the leadoff spot in the first place, because he’s been a bit inept to drive in runs. With runners in scoring position, Gardner is batting .188 with 16 RBI and 14 Ks. On the other hand, he’s been much better with runners on, as a .268 BA, five home runs, and 24 walks will attest to.

Overall, while batting at the top of the order, Gardner has amassed a .234 BA in 107 AB, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 23 Ks, 16 walks, and only two stolen bases. In the second spot, he’s been much more reliable, .268 BA in 228 AB, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 44Ks, 27 walks, and 10 stolen bases.

Yet, when you look at Jacoby Ellsbury, the man whom the Yankees paid almost $170M over the span of eight years (while saying goodbye to Robinson Cano); his lead-off numbers absolutely obliterate any argument as to why he shouldn’t be the one setting the proverbial table. While batting leadoff in 2016, Ellsbury is hitting .272 with three home runs, 24 RBI, 15 stolen bases, and 27 walks in 279 AB.

While hitting in the NO. 2 hole, Ellsbury’s numbers drop precipitously to .218 in 55 AB, one home run, five RBI, three walks, and one stolen base. So essentially, you get a watered down version of Ellsbury, one that doesn’t get on base regularly, and it turn, can’t get the opportunity to steal bases, which is one of the things he still does well. How is this making the best of a bad situation? (his contract.)

Next: Todd Frazier in Pinstripes?

Now I’m not saying Girardi should drop Gardner to the N0. 7 spot in the lineup (even though his three-year splits show he is most valued in that role), but if you want to squeeze the most juice out of the top two hitters in your lineup, a flip-flop needs to occur now.