Yankees Considering an Extension for Aroldis Chapman

Rather than trading closer Aroldis Chapman as everyone expects, the New York Yankees may be thinking of signing him to an extension.

Despite the mounting evidence that the Yankees should be sellers at the trade deadline, there continue to be reports that they may take the exact opposite approach. It’s long been assumed that closer Aroldis Chapman would be dealt at the trade deadline even if the Yankees saw themselves as contenders, both because of their bullpen depth and the fact that his deal expires after the season.

Fellow elite relievers Ken Giles and Craig Kimbrel netted their clubs massive prospect hauls this winter. What the Yankees could get for Chapman at the deadline would far exceed the price they paid to acquire him, and also easily outstrip the value of a compensation pick if they were to let him walk after 2016.

As much sense as a trade would make, the Yankees are at least considering their alternatives in the coming weeks. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports that, while they haven’t reached out to Chapman or his agent, the Yankees are thinking about offering the 28-year-old flamethrower an extension. 

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It’s been reported for weeks that Yankees ownership is hesitant to commit to a full rebuild despite the recommendations of general manager Brian Cashman and the baseball operations department. While it may be too late for the 2016 Yankees to make a postseason run, extending Chapman certainly would provide a boost for the next several seasons. Whether it is the best allocation of the team’s resources is another question, however.

The Yankees made headlines by avoiding the free agent market last offseason, and next winter offers few impact names even if the team wanted to spend (which they probably don’t). A Chapman extension only makes sense if it is one of a series of win-now moves. Keeping Chapman for next season is only maintaining the status quo, not making the club better, and we have already seen that this Yankees team is not good enough to contend without a major shakeup.

Putting that aside, what would an Aroldis Chapman extension cost the Yankees? Given the ever escalating price for pitching, it seems a lock that Chapman will pass Jonathan Papelbon as the most expensive relief pitcher in history. Pap set the record all the way back before the 2012 season with his five year $61 million deal. So that’s the starting point.

Chapman has easily been the most valuable reliever in baseball over the past five years, accumulating 11.5 fWAR (tops in MLB) in that time. During that span, he has a 1.95 ERA/1.75 FIP and has struck out a phenomenal 44.4% of the batters he’s faced. It’s hard to imagine a more dominant presence on the mound, and at 28, he’s still in his prime.

Because of the general wariness about relievers in the game, Chapman probably won’t be able to top Papelbon’s five year commitment, but he will easily outstrip the annual value of the deal. $15 million seems like a good starting point for Chapman, and $18 million doesn’t seem all that crazy either. That means the Yankees would probably need to shell out between $75 and $90 million to get this thing done.

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Does that make sense for a team attempting to cut costs in other areas? The Yankees already have one reliever making closer money in Andrew Miller, and Dellin Betances is about to start getting paid very well through arbitration. Investing so much money into the bullpen when New York has so many other holes would be a very strange choice for the team to make.