Yankees Midseason Report Cards: Starting Rotation

First up, Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka

You can easily make the case that Masahiro Tanaka is one of the top five starters in the American League this season. He ranks fourth among qualified AL starting pitchers with 2.7 fWAR through his first 16 starts. While he doesn’t strike out as many batters as he did when he made his debut stateside, he has found other ways to be successful.

Tanaka has the second lowest walk rate in the league at 1.63 BB/9 and has reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher, posting a career high 51.1% walk rate, good for ninth among AL starters. He has also seemingly addressed the longball issues that have plagued him in the past, limiting opposing hitters to 0.77 HR/9 in the first half.

The Yankees appear to be confident that Tanaka’s elbow troubles are behind him. He regularly starts on normal rest, throws well over 100 pitches routinely, and is on pace to top 200 innings for the first time in MLB.

While there continues to be a mystifying sense among Yankees fans that Tanaka is underperforming and not a “true ace” (whatever that means), he has been routinely excellent in the first half of 2016. He’s the one source of stability in a starting rotation that has been wracked with injuries and inconsistency.

2016 Midseason Grade: A

Next: The New CC

CC Sabathia

Whether it is the stabilizing effect of the famous knee brace, the new cutter he learned from Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera this offseason, or kicking the alcohol issue that has plagued him since 2012, CC Sabathia has been a new man this season.

While nothing is going to bring back the fastball of his youth, Sabathia has been successful in the first half by mixing in a variety of offspeed offerings (he’s throwing his four seamer a career low 34.8% this season) and improving his command.

A 3.17 ERA halfway through the season is the absolute best case scenario for age 36 CC Sabathia. One could quibble about the fact that he’s been bombed in his last two starts (11 earned runs in 11.1 innings of work against the Rangers and Rockies), but he was bound to come back to earth slightly at some point.

Sabathia’s 3.66 FIP and 4.70 xFIP point to some future regression based on his peripheral stats, but even if he can be a passable back end starter the rest of this season and 2017, it will be more than the Yankees expected coming into this year. It still seems unlikely the Yankees can rely on Sabathia to be healthy and effective going forward given his recent history, but it has still been nice to see the big man have some success after struggling for so long.

2016 Midseason Grade: A

Next: Not-So-Nasty Nate

Nathan Eovaldi

Coming into Sunday’s action, Nathan Eovaldi’s 5.54 ERA was the highest among qualified starters in the American League. After a solid start to the season, he has been absolutely hammered in the month of June. He allowed 25 runs in 26 innings over the course of the season’s third month. Most of the damage came via the longball with ten homers surrendered in those five starts.

Anecdotally, it seemed like the splitter that had emerged as such a weapon for Eovaldi in the second half of last season just wasn’t working for whatever reason. After missing the end of 2015 with an elbow issue, an arm injury is certainly a concern. Whatever the cause, he has been one of the worst starters in baseball in recent weeks, and shown few signs of turning it around.

There had been rumors that the Cubs were interested in trading for Eovaldi a few weeks back, but his recent struggles make that unlikely. Selling low on one of their premium young assets would be a foolish move for the Yankees.

At 26, there is still plenty of time for Eovaldi to achieve his potential. As recently as May it looked as though he had finally turned a corner and emerged as a front of the rotation starter. If the Yankees are to have any chance of contending this year, they will have to straighten out whatever is wrong with Eovaldi and at least one more of their talented but struggling starters.

2016 Midseason Grade: D+

Next: Mediocre Mike

Michael Pineda

No Yankees player has been more frustrating this season than Big Mike, and if this piece had been written last month, Pineda would have received a failing grade. He came into June with an unsightly 6.92 ERA, but a string of strong starts have lowered it more than one and a half runs.

Pineda’s stuff is as electric as it has ever been. He leads American League starters in strikeouts per nine innings with 10.88, and has also generated the highest percentage of swinging strikes among that group at 14.3%. His main problem this year has been keeping the ball in the park (1.51 HR/9). He also allowed a bizarre number of two out rallies earlier in the season, leading to speculation by pundits that he was losing focus at times.

With a 2.75 ERA and 2.55 FIP in his last six starts, Michael Pineda has arguably been the Yankees hottest starter in June. Like Nathan Eovaldi, Big Mike has previously had stretches where he’s looked like a legitimate ace. His peripheral stats have always been among the most impressive in the league, and he’s one of those guys who always seems on the verge of a breakout.

If one or both of Pineda and Eovaldi perform at the level they are capable of, it would change the whole outlook of the Yankees 2016 season. At least with Mike, things are looking better lately and not worse.

2016 Midseason Grade: C

Next: The Lame Duck

Ivan Nova

Ivan Nova took over a rotation spot in mid-May when Luis Severino hit the disabled list, and he actually held his own during his first three starts, allowing just three earned runs in 16.1 innings. His early success probably played a role in the Yankees decision to keep Severino down in Triple-A after his triceps injury healed. 

Unfortunately, the wheels came off completely for Nova not long after that. In his last eight starts, the 29-year-old has a 6.29 ERA and an only slightly better 5.08 FIP. That’s basically the same level of performance as his 2015 campaign. There seemed to be some hope that Nova could return to some semblance of his old self in his second year removed from 2014 TJ surgery, but it is looking more and more like this is what he is now.

Next: Five Biggest First-Half Surprises for the New York Yankees

As an impending free agent with little chance of being retained, there doesn’t seem to be much incentive to keep Nova in the rotation if he isn’t performing. Chad Green, Luis Cessa, and Luis Severino are all pitching well for Triple-A Scranton. With half the season done, the Yankees can’t be content with mediocrity any longer. The trade deadline is coming up, and there is every reason to flip Nova for a contender seeking rotation depth if they can get literally anything for him.

2016 Midseason Grade: F