Aaron Judge’s Struggles in Triple-A are Becoming a Concern

Aaron Judge, the Yankees number two prospect according to MLB Pipeline, continues to struggle against high level pitching despite now having close to a full season’s worth of playing time in Triple-A.

Following his promotion in late-June of 2015, Judge hit .224/.308/.373 (98 wRC+) in 260 PAs while striking out 28.5% of the time. He got off to a hot start, posting a 123 wRC+ in April, but the wheels have come off completely in the second month of the season. In May, Judge hit .183/.271/.327 (74 wRC+). Weirdly, his slump has coincided with him cutting down his strikeout rate to 23.7% and bumping up his walk rate to 9.3% in the last month. Instead of improving as you might expect, his overall line in 2016 has been significantly worse than his numbers last season in slightly fewer plate appearances.

The timing of Judge’s struggles couldn’t be worse. The big league club has the lowest slugging percentage in the American League and is desperate for an offensive spark. If Judge had continued to hit like he was in April, the team would have to seriously consider a promotion at some point this season. The struggles of Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira will jeopardize their status as full-time players if they continue much longer. With his pedigree and a hot bat, Judge would have no problem forcing his way into regular playing time.

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At 24-years-old, it’s a legitimate concern that Aaron Judge is performing so poorly in Triple-A. He mashed in all three levels of competition he faced prior to joining the International League last year, but was never significantly younger than his peers, as you might expect a top prospect to be. Judge is 6’7, and history has proven it is extremely difficult to be a major league hitter when you are that size. There is simply more room for a smart pitcher to exploit.

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There are only two active non-pitchers in MLB that are 6’6 or taller in 2016, Giancarlo Stanton and Steven Moya. As perhaps the most impressive power hitter of his era, Stanton demonstrates the power potential that comes with immense size. It can certainly work out, but the odds are against it.

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To combat his struggles against pitches away and breaking balls, which continue to be his biggest weakness, Judge made some mechanical changes to his stance and swing this winter, including increasing the size of his leg kick to help with his timing on soft stuff. He and the Yankees’ coaching staff have recognized the problem and have worked hard to address it. The early returns have been mixed at best, but he does still have time to turn things around. With Carlos Beltran departing following this season, many had presumed that the vacant right field job would be Judge’s to lose. If the big man continues to flounder against advanced pitching however, the team may have to look elsewhere for 2017.