Is the Yankees Rotation Really This Bad?

For all the bad press the Yankees’ offense has been generating (and deservedly so), the club’s starting pitching has been equally problematic in the first month of the season. New York starters have a combined 5.13 ERA in 20 starts coming into Friday, good for sixth worst in all of baseball. The fantastic work of their relievers puts their overall run prevention at a slightly more respectable 4.42 ERA, but having a shutdown pen can only help when their is a lead to protect. Right now those are in short supply.

While the results on the field have been frustrating, metrics that try and eliminate the effects of bad luck and bad defense such as FIP and xFIP paint a much rosier picture of the performance of New York’s rotation. Yankees starters have been slightly above average as measured by their 3.97 FIP and rank a stunning fifth in the league by xFIP at 3.51.

Three Yankees starters have a FIP that is a run lower than their ERA. Nathan Eovaldi is very close to making that four with a 0.83 run differential between those numbers. Luis Severino’s difference is more than three runs, suggesting he has been the victim of some bad luck in his terrible start to the season. Only Masahiro Tanaka has an ERA roughly equivalent to his FIP. It’s no coincidence then that he has been the team’s lone consistently successful starter in the early going.

Unfortunately, this is not a new trend. The Yankees return largely the same rotation from 2015 with the exception of swingman Adam Warren. Last year’s starters combined for an ERA of 4.25, a FIP of 4.04, and an xFIP of 3.75. xFIP seems to be a problematic statistic to use with Yankee pitchers because it normalizes home run rates to league average. Yankee Stadium is always one of the more homer-friendly parks, so obviously Yankee starters won’t allow them at league average rates. Hitters have averaged 2.67 HR per game at the stadium this month, good for second in the American League. Starters who are prone to the long ball are going to have difficulty in the Bronx.

Here are the rotation’s 2015 numbers. Eovaldi and Pineda have the biggest split between run prevention and peripherals. Everyone but Severino has an xFIP significantly lower than their ERA.

The fact that New York’s team FIP is so low is no accident. In recent years, GM Brian Cashman and the team’s decision makers have prioritized acquiring big, hard throwing strikeout pitchers who don’t walk a lot of guys. This trend can be seen at all levels of the team’s system. In 2016, the Yankees have the third lowest walk rate in MLB, the fourth highest K/9, and a sparkling 4.13 K/BB, behind only the Mets and the Rays.

Peripherals are generally a strong indicator of future performance. However, three-fifths of the team’s rotation have consistently underperformed their peripherals in their last five seasons. CC Sabathia’s FIP has been significantly lower than his ERA in all five seasons since the start of his decline in 2012. Eovaldi’s underperformed his FIP in four of the past five years, and Pineda has in three of his four healthy seasons.

While many might take this as a sign of future potential, it also may be that this is just who they are. All three guys have strong strikeout and walk rates, but are extremely hittable and prone to hanging mistake pitches. They’ve got the stuff, but command within the strike zone is a major issue. Severino has fit this profile in his first four starts of 2016 as well.

So is the Yankees’ rotation really this bad? Sadly, it probably is. There is definite upside, but recent history suggests it won’t be reached. However, given the lack of viable options in the upper-minors, there isn’t much the Yankees can do but cross their fingers and hope for improvement until the trade deadline. Ivan Nova is waiting in the pen, but he hasn’t been much better. James Kaprielian looked like a potential knight in shining armor before being shut down recently with elbow inflammation. At least the miserable offense can take some of the heat off of the starters for the team’s slow start.