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New York Yankees News: Joe Peta Provides Mid-season Betting Update on Yankees

By Brendan Fitzgerald

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Perception of MLB teams’ quality is very malleable over the first half of the season leading up to the All-Star break. Pre-season projection systems attempt to provide a guideline for how these teams will do before the season even starts. However, several teams will under- or over-perform through the first half of the year.

The deviation in expected outcome can be attributable to luck (good or bad) that might even out when the second half is played, injuries to key players, poor managing, or a whole host of other reasons. For instance, the Royals were seen as a feel-good story last season who would regress to mediocrity this year. They now own the best record in the American League and are legitimately a quality team. The Padres turned over the entire roster in the offseason and were expected to contend in the NL West. Then the right-handed hitting slanted lineup and no true center-fielder alignment put them squarely in the “sellers” bucket as the trade deadline approaches.

These changes in perception from the pre-season to now are best captured by oddsmakers and professional bettors. Oddsmakers priced teams a certain way in the pre-season (total wins over/under market) and then formulated daily lines up to the All-Star break that can be converted to a full season to discern any differences between pre-season perception and first half perception as games started being played.

Bettors are similar in that they have a pre-season win expectation and then adjust as the season goes on to see if there are gaps between their models and the presented odds. ESPN Chalk Insider Joe Peta wrote a midseason betting report for all 30 MLB teams that encapsulates all of these elements.

Peta shows that Vegas set the Yankees’ preseason win line at just 82. However, as the season progressed and the Yankees started winning games (current 89 win pace) and jumping out in front of the AL East, the wins projection from Vegas jumped. This was reflected in the 84.4 “season-to-date pricing” that Peta calculated based on daily lines extrapolated to a full 162-game season.

Peta’s changed perception follows a similar trend. He reveals that his preseason projection for the Yankees was only 79 wins based on the injury risk to many key players in the lineup and rotation. However, despite reservations about the poor team defense, Peta believes the Yankees can truly win the AL East. Despite this, he advises not to bet on the Yankees as they typically receive a markup on the daily lines.

Both Vegas and Peta have revealed their changed perceptions of the Yankees from a mediocre team to one that will push for 90 wins and first place in the AL East.

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