Bomber Bites With Jumping Joe— Yankees Are Not a Last Place Team…Yet

Paul Swydan of ESPN, wrote up an excellent article explaining that based on WAR, the Yankees are currently posed to finish last in the AL East.  This seems a bit premature to me, and not just because we are so early in the off-season and the final rosters of each team is likely to change drastically, but because WAR is simply not the “be all end all” statistic to determine how good a baseball team is.

Before all the sabermetricians break out the comment hate, let me say that WAR is a good stat and ZiPs projections are nice.  The new information given by advanced metrics is a useful tool.  But you will have to forgive me if I refuse to drink the Kool-Aid that the whole of baseball can be minimized into an algorithm.

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Some things about the AL East cannot be denied.  The Red Sox are better after the signings of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval.  The Blue Jays are better having traded for Josh Donaldson.  However, the Rays are weaker without David Price and Jeremy Hellickson and especially without manager Joe Maddon.  The Orioles are also minus the American League home run champ, Nelson Cruz, who signed with Seattle.

Mandatory Credit: Chad R. MacDonald.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are probably a weaker team right now than they were on Opening Day.  They are a year older.  They don’t seem intent on making any big changes this winter.  Instead they are counting on bounce back seasons from 39-year-old Alex Rodriguez, 37-year-old Carlos Beltran and 35-year-old Mark Teixeira.  The chances of all three having productive seasons is low.  However, one of them might be able to play to back of their baseball card.

The Yankee pitching staff should be the backbone of the team next season.  While Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda are all major injury risks, the Yankees actually have more depth in way of starters than any of the team in the AL East.  Ivan Nova will be back around the All-Star break and Shane Greene, Chase Whitley, Manny Banuelos, and Luis Severino are all possible candidates for the rotation.  Beyond Marcus Stroman and Mark Buehrle, the Jays are short on starters and their bullpen is a mess.  Boston has Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly and not much else.  Can the Baltimore pen be as good as it was last season?

Right now, even without Cruz, Baltimore has to be favorite to win the division again.  If they can get close to the production from their staff that they got last season and a bounce back year from Chris Davis they have to be considered the front runner.

Right now I consider, Boston, Toronto and New York to be a jumbled mess.  All three teams have major strengths.  The middle of the Blue Jay lineup with Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Donaldson may be the best 3-4-5 in baseball next season.  Boston’s lineup will likewise score runs in bunches with Ramirez and Sandoval pairing with David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Yoenis Cepedes.  The Yankees have the strongest pitching staff in the division.  However, all three currently have major weaknesses as well.  The Yankee lineup will likely continue to score runs next season.  Both Boston and Toronto are a few starters and a few relievers short of a full deck.

Meanwhile, the Rays are in trouble.  They have lost one of the best managers in baseball in Madden and are struggling to replace him.  Before that there was a major shakeup in the front office.  Their lone star, Evan Longoria, is coming off the worst season of his career.  Ben Zobrist is will likely finish the 2015 season in another uniform.  Wil Myers took a step back in 2014.  Nearly their entire pitching staff from 2013 has either been injured or traded.  Although, they do have some solid starters in Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly and Chris Archer.

Right now, the Rays look like the least of the East.  However, the Yankees are closer to last than first on paper.  Even if they decide to forgo bidding on the big free agents remaining this off-season, they will need to make upgrades if they hope to make headway in the division.  In addition, with the Tigers, Indians, Royals, Angels, A’s and Mariners all likely ahead of the Bombers at this point, winning the division could be the only way for them to make the playoffs.