Why The Yankees Need Two Free Agent Starters To Be Postseason Contenders

With the GM meetings over, we are starting to get into that time of the offseason where you will see plenty of rumors and news about the big three starting pitchers on the market. Those big three are Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields. The news about Lester has already heated up with interest from the Chicago Cubs as well as his old team, the Boston Red Sox. There was also a report that the Royals have had preliminary interest in the two-time World Series Champion.

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Now, when you take a look at the Yankees’ rotation last season, they were around middle of the pack in baseball in terms of team ERA (3.77). I would definitely look to bring Brandon McCarthy back, but can that be the only starter the Yankees sign as some are suggesting? McCarthy did a nice job for the Bronx Bombers last season, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA in just 90 innings of work. McCarthy finished the season with 200 total innings when you combine his totals with the Yankees and Diamondbacks. However, that is the most innings that the 31-year-old has thrown since 2011, when he was with the Oakland Athletics (170.2 innings).

While the big topic has been around the need to bring back David Robertson for the bullpen, the rotation has its own share of issues. Yes, there is depth in the rotation with Shane Greene emerging last season. But, how do the Yankees fill the void if Hiroki Kuroda decides to leave/retire? Plus, you have CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, who are both being paid big bucks, but will enter 2015 with some questions after an injury-riddled 2014. Ivan Nova is coming off Tommy John Surgery and Michael Pineda, while dominant last year, threw just 76 innings (He threw 171 innings back in 2011).

Even though the Yankees would have to pay at least five or six years to another free agent to get that caliber of a pitcher, there is pressure on the organization to be back in the postseason after two straight years of watching the playoffs.

The pitcher that I think the Yankees should go after is Lester because you don’t have to give up a draft pick. Plus, the lefty has thrown 190+ innings in every season since 2008. Even if the Yankees go after a Scott Boras client in Max Scherzer, they would get a pitcher who in five seasons with Detroit has thrown no fewer than 187.2 innings in a season and has back-to-back seasons of 200+ innings.

Shields may actually be the best of these candidates in terms of being an innings-eater. While he wouldn’t necessarily be the ace for Joe Girardi in he rotation, New York would get a pitcher who has eight straight 200+ inning seasons and three straight seasons of 225+ innings pitched.

The Yankees’ starters as a whole last season threw 951.2 innings, but that number was 22^nd in baseball. New York relied heavily on the bullpen, with its relievers throwing over 500 innings (11^th in the game). While a lot of writers, like Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, are saying New York could follow the bullpen plan that took the Royals to the World Series, you have to look at the inning Kansas City still got from its starters during the season. The Royals were eighth in innings pitched by their starters, including four starters with 180+ innings (Yankees had two: McCarthy and Hiroki Kuroda). KC’s bullpen this past season was 26^th in innings pitched with a 3.30 ERA (10^th in MLB).

Depending on who the Yankees bring back or sign in the bullpen, the need for a pitcher that can eat innings is there. Otherwise, you are looking at a rotation that may look good on paper, but still would have a lot of question marks. This is why I think the Yankees need to be at least in on one of these three big name starting pitchers in addition to Brandon McCarthy.

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