The Yankees Should Be Following The AL Wild Card Game Closely

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Sep 28, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter (2) watches the game from the dug out during the seventh inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

While the New York Yankees will be watching the postseason for the second consecutive season, there are still reasons for this team to be watching what happens this October. The first of what will be many reasons to come will occur tonight in Kansas City as the Oakland Athletics face the Kansas City Royals for the American League Wild Card (8:07 PM ET, TBS). The winner of this game will play the Angels on Thursday night in the ALDS. While the Bronx Bombers don’t necessarily care who wins the game, the focus should and will be on the two starting pitchers.

Jon Lester (Oakland) and James Shields (Kansas City) are both set to be free agents, along with Detroit Tigers’ ace Max Scherzer (Game 1 starter on Thursday vs. Baltimore). Even though it has been reported by George A.King III of the New York Post that the team won’t spend as much this winter, you have to think that the Yankees will be linked to one of the “big three” at some point during the winter due to the uncertainty of Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda giving the team full seasons in 2015. Before we discuss the fit for both of these pitchers, let’s breakdown the matchup, starting with Lester:

Sep 19, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher

Jon Lester

(31) throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies during the seventh inning at O.co Coliseum. The Oakland Athletics defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1. (Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports)

JON LESTER

Jon Lester started off the season with the Boston Red Sox and was very solid for the Yankees’ AL East rivals. In 21 starts with Boston, Lester went 10-7 with an ERA of 2.52, which is impressive when you consider how bad the Red Sox’ offense was this season. On July 31, he was traded to the Oakland Athletics for left fielder Yoenis Cespedes. A lot of experts thought that this was the piece that would get Billy Beane and company past the first round of the playoffs.

Despite’s Oakland’s offensive struggles in the second half of the season, the 30-year-old brought his A game to the table. In 11 starts, he went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA. He has not given up more than three earned runs in any start with the Athletics. Overall, Lester’s 16 wins and a 2.46 ERA were top-five in the American League.

He also has 29 strikeouts in his last four starts (seven or more in each). He faced the Royals in his A’s debut back on August 2, where he gave up three runs on nine hits over six innings in an 8-3 Athletics win. One important stat to note as Lester heads into Kauffman Stadium Tuesday night is that he has dominated Kansas City over the course of his career. In 13 starts vs. KC in his career, he is 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA, but has a 5.00 ERA in five starts on the road vs. the Royals. Which stat will hold true on Tuesday?

Sep 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals starting pitcher

James Shields

(33) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. (Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports)

JAMES SHIELDS

You can make the case that the Royals acquired James Shields in the winter of 2013 for this specific game. The pitcher known as “Big Game James” in Tampa Bay has been the veteran leader on this Royals’ team and has been able to eat innings throughout the entire season. His 227 innings pitched is top-five in the American League and he has averaged about 107 pitches per start.

According to ESPN.com, Shields has thrown the fourth most pitches in all of baseball (Scherzer is 3^rd, Lester is 7^th). Shields has given up three runs in each of his last three starts, of which he is 0-1 in those games. That being said, the 32-year-old has stepped up his game as the season has gone along, particularly in the month of September. He has a 2.31 ERA this month and has 30 strikeouts to just four walks in five starts.

He faced Oakland at O.Co Coliseum back on August 3 and threw eight great innings, giving up two runs on four hits in a 4-2 win. However, the splits show that Shields is a much better away from home when you consider that 10 of his 14 wins have come on the road and he is a tad more hittable at Kauffman Stadium (3.51 ERA at home compared to 2.97 on the road).

Sep 28, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher

Sonny Gray

(54) and catcher

Geovany Soto

(17) along with teammates celebrate their win over the Texas Rangers during a baseball game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Athletics clinched a wild card with the win. (Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports)

PREDICTION

Even though the Royals are in their first postseason game in 29 years and have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, I am picking Lester and the Athletics to win the game primarily because of Lester’s dominance against the Royals and I think Oakland can now breathe a sigh of relief knowing that they avoided the collapse. This team still has the talent of the one that was leading the AL West up until August 1 and I expect that to show up tonight. Both pitchers will throw great games, but I’ll take Oakland by a final score of 4-2.

As for the fit for the Yankees, I think Lester is a better fit for New York than Shields. For one, the Bronx Bombers would not have to give draft pick compensation to the A’s since he was traded in the middle of the season, so it would be mainly cash based. Second, Lester knows the division very well, since he has 13 or more career wins against the other three teams.

Shields is going to be a good pickup for somebody in free agency and if he keeps advancing the Royals in this postseason, his price tag is going to go way up.

Both pitchers can eat innings and be front-of-the-line starters for any team. However, the key stat that separates Lester from Shields is the postseason numbers. Shields has a 5.80 ERA in six postseason games while Lester has a 2.11 ERA in 11 starts. Both pitchers can eat innings, which is what the Yankees’ need, but in a city that still has championship or bust aspirations, it’s the former Red Sox that seems to be the better fit between the two pitchers.

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