2012 Pitching Projections: Ivan Nova

In the second of our profiles on the Yankees’ 2012 rotation based on the projected ZiPS numbers. If you missed the profile on CC Sabathia you can find it here. For now, let’s take a look at what we can expect from Ivan Nova this year.

2012 ZiPS Projections – 13-10, 4.44 ERA, 178.3 IP, 189 H, 88 ER, 20 HR, 60 BB, 111 K
2011 Actual Numbers – 16-4, 3.70 ERA, 165.1 IP, 163 H, 68 ER, 13 HR, 57 BB, 98 K

To say that Nova exceeded expectations and impressed fans last season is an understatement. In a 2011 rotation with a lot of question marks, Nova quickly turned into a guy that could be relied upon to turn in a solid start each time he took the mound. In fact, Nova seemed almost oblivious to the fact that pitching in Yankee Stadium can oftentimes be a pressure-packed situation. And when asked if he had any postseason jitters, Nova responded with,”I don’t usually get nervous. I just have fun.” And so do the Yankees and their fans when Nova is pitching well.

Despite Nova’s numbers last season, at this point he would really be better suited as a number 3 starter rather than the number 2 starter it appears he will be when the season begins. But given Nova’s confidence and demeanor, I believe specific rotation spots are nothing more than arbitrary numbers to him, and he will perform well wherever he is slotted in. That’s why I have to disagree with some of the ZiPS projections. The IP, hits, and strikeout numbers all look about right, but I predict Nova will be closer to a 4.00 ERA instead of the 4.44 that ZiPS projects. I also don’t believe we will see a nearly 50% increase in Nova’s home runs allowed. Even allowing for the fact that the rest of the league has now had a season and a half to see Nova and to adjust to his pitches, his numbers from 2011 and simply watching him perform in 27 starts last year lead me to believe that Nova will once again exceed expectations.

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