1 final trade prediction for Yankees before non-tender deadline

The New York Yankees have a crowded rotation picture entering 2026. If anything, they could use a few more certainties rather than wild cards. Signing Merrill Kelly to insure against Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole's late arrivals? You know exactly what you're getting. Banking on youngsters stepping up or Cole/Rodón/Clarke Schmidt in September being their usual selves right away? It could work, but it likely won't.

Both Cole and Rodón should be major pieces of a hypothetical 2026 playoff rotation, but Schmidt? It seems far less likely. His UCL snapped beyond the point of homeopathic repair in early July, mere weeks after his peak. When September ended, he'd regained full range of motion in his throwing arm, but while that's a notable personal milestone, it still signaled he was close to the starting line of a long journey.

Projecting out 14 months from his surgery, he could be toeing a major league mound in September. 2026 and 2027 are his final two years under the Yankees' control. 2027 could be a lost year for a whole different reason, never mind the likelihood that he won't feel like himself until midway through it. The Yankees have previously not been too keen on paying pitchers to rehab; just look at Tommy Kahnle, who dipped to the Dodgers, then returned two years later to the Yanks when he'd regained his strength.

Schmidt, scheduled for an arbitration raise to $4.9 million (projected by MLB Pipeline), won't really be pitching this year. Would the Yankees dare to shuffle him around to a team that could be more patient rather than pay him this summer?

I wouldn't be stunned if we see Schmidt moved in a last-minute deal. As for the flip side, how about a versatile Cincinnati Reds bat who's slated to make $4.5 million this season, and is under team control through 2028?

Proposed New York Yankees trade: Clarke Schmidt for Spencer Steer of the Cincinnati Reds

Steer posted a 94 OPS+ last year, knocking 21 home runs while playing his home games at the Great American Small Park. The Sal Stewart Era is set to begin in Cincinnati, and the Yankees could use a power bat with defensive fluidity who could capably fill in at left field as well as first base (his primary position, but he spent 10 games in the outfield last year).

Schmidt is a player with a higher peak, but whose future value is less certain. The Yankees would probably have to throw in an additional prospect here to even out the control and account for Schmidt's absence, but a rumor like this could certainly pass the smell test.