Luis Severino Could Be Yankees’ Postseason X Factor — At a Price

Luis Severino has faced 51 batters as a reliever, and only two have managed to connect for hits. His confidence rises as he steadies the Yankees bullpen, but his starter mentality diminishes as he persistently abandons the changeup.

Think of Luis Severino’s situation as an old adage his manager, Joe Girardi, has uttered in pressers: “In a sense, you’re robbing Peter to pay Paul.” The Yankees are depriving Severino of starting pitching development because they are postseason hopeful with a shallow bullpen.

Their 22-year-old Dominican phenom, as a reliever, has the aptitude to baffle hitters without obsessing over pinpoint location. In three shutdown innings Wednesday, Severino ambushed the Blue Jays lineup with 97, 98 and 99 mph heaters. His slider was deceitful, and it didn’t matter where his fastballs traversed the zone because the Jays couldn’t catch up.

Perhaps sniping the catcher’s mitt is overrated for electric relievers, but accuracy is a must  for starters. 

More from Yanks Go Yard

• Yankees sign Carlos Rodón after Scott Boras staredown to fill out special 2023 rotation
• Did wild Max Fried trade rumor give Yankees perfect fallback plan?
• Red Sox DFAing Derek Jeter-inspired piece of Mookie Betts trade gives Yankees fans joy
• Yankees’ reported backup plan if Carlos Rodón falls through will crush Red Sox
• 5 former All-Stars Yankees can still target this offseason

YES Network analyst and 1994 A.L. Cy Young winner David Cone examined Severino during Wednesday’s telecast. Cone, considered here at Yanks Go Yard as a front-runner to be the team’s next pitching guru, praised Severino’s added guile. But he ominously predicted Severino will run into trouble if the command issues leak into future starts, because his fastballs average less velocity and hitters will have extra time to barrel them up.

Severino has undoubtedly revved up his aggressiveness and effectiveness out of the pen this season. His -34 sOPS+ is 134 points better than league average for relief pitchers. He was 56 points worse than league average as a starter (156 sOPS+), visibly timid, had trouble pacing himself, and didn’t trust his third pitch. The latter undesirable facet earned him a demotion to Triple-A.

Granted, baseball has its share of successful two-pitch relievers. Yankees fans should look no further than Dellin Betances, who for many minor league seasons was nothing more than a failed starter with heralded potential. However, Betances The Reliever boasts an otherworldly slurve and blow-it-by-you fastball that incessantly keeps the major’s best hitters off kilter. 

This minimal repertoire works with limited exposure, meaning no lineup turnovers. A third pitch isn’t always necessary for bullpen hurlers like Betances, and now we’re seeing the same with Severino. But it’s that lack of a third pitch that’s preventing the Yankees from handing Severino the ball every fifth day. It’s that doggone changeup that’s setting him back from being an ace.

The Yankees wanted to allow Severino more time in the minors to refine his changeup. In a perfect world, it certainly would’ve played out that way.

The catch-22 is that the Yankees are trailing 2.5 lengths in the A.L. Wild Card race and have meaningful innings to fill in their bullpen. Their playoff odds are at 8.0% entering their four-game set against the division-dwelling Rays, according to FanGraphs.

Severino could be the X factor that takes the Yanks deep into October, but also next season’s stumbling block if he hasn’t readjusted to starting come April. Just look at how he buried the Yankees by losing eight of nine starts this season. In 43 innings, he allowed 41 earned runs and carried a burdensome 1.744 WHIP.

So here we have the makings of a New York-sized thriller: a resurfacing theme, rapidly approaching climax, dramatic foreshadowing and two entities locked in a tug-of-war battle. The Yanks’ enduring playoff hopes star as Paul, and Luis Severino’s development plays the part of Peter.

Next: The Yankees Must Get Creative with Aaron Judge

The Yankees are asking a lot of an inexperienced Severino — to immediately dominate as a lights-out reliever and later reconfigure into a reliable starter. Depending on if, and how much, Paul gets paid this postseason will determine how worth it it was to rob Peter.