Yankees Face Looming Decision with Ace Masahiro Tanaka

With Masahiro Tanaka likely to opt-out of his contract following next season, the New York Yankees need to decide what to do with their ace pitcher.

One of the few Yankees veterans not to be seriously mentioned in trade rumors this season is Masahiro Tanaka. Every other member of the team’s rotation has been tossed around the rumor mill over the past month, but Tanaka has been exempt for a few reasons.

First, Tanaka is arguably the Yankees best player at this point. His 3.3 wins above replacement by FanGraphs’ metric is the most on the team. He had a strong argument for an All Star nod this year, and has a 3.00 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 129 innings pitched through 20 starts. He’s a legitimate ace in his prime.

Although the media storm has died down at this point, Tanaka might still be the Yankees most marketable player. He’s incredibly beloved in Japan, and the money they are making off of that international interest sure isn’t chump change.

Finally though, the main reason Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been discussed as a possible trade chip, is that his contract would be terrifying for most acquiring teams.

If Tanaka is healthy and effective over the next year, he will be paid $22 million in 2017 before opting out of his deal and hitting the open market. No problem there. He will likely be worth every penny.

The difficulty lies in the ticking time bomb in Tanaka’s right elbow. The partially torn ligament that caused him to miss several months of the 2014 season has faded into the background for most Yankees fans, but it would be a major issue for any GM acquiring the 27-year-old this season.

The tear all but ensures that Tanaka will require Tommy John surgery at some point in his career, and probably sooner rather than later. Ervin Santana and Adam Wainwright have shown that the occasional pitcher can last a while with such a tear, but they are major exceptions.

As soon as that elbow gives out, Tanaka’s contract has the possibility of being a very expensive albatross, especially for a club whose pockets are not as deep as the Yankees. There is $89 million remaining on Tanaka’s deal after this season if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out, and that is a huge risk for a guy with a known injury.

That brings up an interesting conundrum for the Yankees. Assuming all goes well over the next year and Tanaka continues his 2016 success, what should they do about their ace when he inevitably opts out?

This feels like it may be the Robinson Cano negotiations all over again. The Yankees will surely want to bring their best pitcher back, but only on their terms. Will Hal Steinbrenner be the high bidder on Tanaka? Almost surely not, especially with risk-averse Brian Cashman whispering in his ears.

Next: Projecting the New York Yankees 2017 Starting Lineup

Logically, it probably doesn’t make sense to make a huge investment in a damaged pitcher, but letting superstars walk is never fun. Could the Yankees look to deal him at some point rather than lose him for nothing? Seems like a longshot given all the complications involved.