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Adam Warren’s Move to the Rotation

By Brendan Fitzgerald

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When Chris Capuano injured his quad on March 11th it opened up a spot in the starting rotation. The Yankees have created a spring training competition between Adam Warren and Esmil Rogers to fill that spot. Warren has pitched much better than Rogers so far this spring and figures to be pegged as the fifth starter with Rogers relegated to longman in the bullpen. Aside from spring training performance, the team likely favors the homegrown Warren over the journeyman Rogers.

Warren was dynamite in the bullpen for New York last year with a 2.97 ERA (2.89 FIP). The peripherals showed that he struck out 23.5% of hitters, limited walks (7.4% BB rate), and kept the ball in the park (0.46 HR/9). His ability to feature a starter’s repertoire- Pitchf/x says he threw 6 different pitch types last year- in short stints made him very effective. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs took a look at how his stuff would play in the transition from the bullpen to the rotation.

Sarris first breaks down his fastballs. He notes that the 4-seamer is very straight but has some vertical (“rising”) movement (drops less than the average MLB fastball) which helps him induce popups. He also throws that pitch at 94.3 MPH out of the pen which is above average. Sarris isn’t too worried about the move to the rotation as he will lose around 0.7 MPH which still keeps his velocity above average.

The 2-seamer has a ton of horizontal movement (-6.4 x movement according to Sarris) and should keep hitters off his much straighter four-seamer. Sarris believes that Warren’s change-up will transition well to the rotation because of its efficient velocity separation from his fastball and the fade away from left-handed hitters. Warren’s fourth pitch, the slider, is an average pitch according to Sarris as it comes in at 86 MPH and with a 14% swing-and-miss rate.

The final pitch, the curveball, is basically exactly league average based on its movement, velocity, and whiff rate. However, the pitch gets a ton of ground balls and might be a nice weapon for Warren with men on base. Sarris’ analysis shows reason for optimism of Warren’s move to the rotation.

The Yankees don’t lack quality options for the bullpen so moving Warren to the rotation will not significantly harm the production in later innings. The move of Warren to the rotation could turn out very well for the club.

In fact, if Warren pitches well he would likely keep his rotation spot when Capuano returns. Sarris’ pitch breakdown of Warren portends good production when  Warren starts for the Yankees this season.

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