Yankees: Scouting their toughest early stretch of the season

Game one: Sonny Gray vs Charlie Morton

This matchup seems a bit one-sided, given Gray’s (1-1, 7.71 ERA) struggles thus far and Morton’s (3-0, 1.86 ERA) continued transformation into a quality starter. The Yankees struggled to hit Morton in game seven of the ALCS when he held the Yankees to only two hits in five innings.

Although excelling so far in 2018, Morton is coming off his worst start of the season against the Angels on April 24, when he allowed four runs, five hits, and five walks en route to his first loss of the season. Perhaps he is falling back to Earth? Either way, the Astros seem to have a clear advantage in game one of this series.

Game two: Jordan Montgomery vs Justin Verlander

Although Montgomery (2-0, 3.76 ERA) is having a solid start to 2018, Verlander (4-0, 1.36 ERA) has been otherworldly. Verlander has always been a big-game pitcher, and he’s sure to be amped up to face the Yankees after all of his offseason tweets.

Don’t sleep on Montgomery though. With his bulldog mentality on the mound and variety of pitch offerings, he won’t back down and may be able to match Verlander if he can keep the Astros sluggers off-balance. The game could come down to the bullpen, but you have to give the Astros the advantage here again.

Game three: Luis Severino vs Dallas Keuchel

The Yankees have their first starting pitching advantage of the series in this matchup, with Severino (4-1, 2.61 ERA) facing off against Keuchel (1-4, 4.00 ERA), a previous Yankee killer. Sevy’s emergence into an ace and legitimate top starter in the MLB has been huge for the Yankees success, both now and into the future.

He’s facing off against a dangerous Astros offense that excels at hitting the fastball, so despite his elite velocity Severino will need to bring his buckling slider to throw off sluggers like reigning AL MVP Jose Altuve and shortstop Carlos Correa.

Keuchel, who dominated the Yankees in the 2015 AL Wild Card game and also in their first ALCS matchup last year, finally faltered in game five, when he let up seven hits and four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. Does that mean the Yankees finally solved him? Hopefully, but his reliance on breaking pitches always makes him a tough pitcher for the hulking Yankee sluggers. Still, slight advantage Yankees.

Game four: Masahiro Tanaka vs Lance McCullers Jr.

The Yankees face another pitcher they have struggled against in McCullers (4-1, 3.71 ERA), who pitched to a 0.90 ERA in 10 innings in last year’s ALCS. McCullers unleashed his devastating curveball, that shows 12 to 6 movement at an average of 88 mph, an extremely high velocity for such a pitch.

McCullers would fit well with this Yankees staff, as he rarely throws his fastball and instead primarily relies on his curve and his sinker, which sits around 94 mph. He’s a tough matchup for the Yankees given his ability to pound Judge and Stanton low-and-away with his breaking pitches, something the two behemoths have struggled with in the past. Tanaka (4-2, 4.37 ERA) also pitched very well in the ALCS, holding the Astros to a 1.38 ERA in two starts. It’s a good matchup, but since the home team won every game in that series, I’ll give a slight edge to the Astros.