The 2017 Yankees and AL East Predictions (Part 2)

The Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays seem to share a similar timetable as the Orioles. Toronto has had a lot of success the last few years and has appeared in the last two ALCS’. And the team did everything they could to win by adding two marquee players during this run: SS Troy Tulowitzki and 3B Josh Donaldson.

But they are continuing to follow the path of the O’s and have begun to quickly drain the team of talent. Still, the strength of the team should be the same as it was in 2016: starting pitching.

Many teams would trade their starting four for the Jays‘.

"They’ll have one of the best 1-5 rotations in the majors this season. At 3.64, the Jays’ rotation ERA was fourth in the majors and tops in the AL last year, and there’s reason to believe they’re even better."

Their individual ERA’s were: Aaron Sanchez 3.00; J.A. Happ 3.18; Marco Estrada 3.48; and, Marcos Stroman 4.37. And only Stroman had more hits than innings pitched (209/204). This will be an excellent staff no matter Francisco Liriano does.

Their bullpen, however, is not the equal of the starting staff, as Joshua Sandlock makes clear:

"This is where it gets dicey for the Blue Jays. Their bullpen finished 22nd in baseball last year with a 4.11 ERA. Only the Texas Rangers made the playoffs with a worse bullpen. Toronto did nothing to upgrade their ‘pen in a meaningful way over the offseason."

Slow Death

But they could overcome that if the offense was at an elite or even excellent level. They did not do that last year and look less capable of doing it this year. And the offense should get worse: it lost Edwin Encarnacion. The guy hit 42 homers, 34 doubles and slugged .549.

He was replaced with 34-year-old Kendrys Morales and his respectable 30 home runs, 24 doubles, and .468 SLG. Clearly, there will be a drop off in production especially as Kendry last hit over 30 homers in 2009 and is unlikely to do it again this year.

That decline in production looks likely to come from multiple sources. C Russell Martin hit under .200 for the first two months of the season while striking out in a third of his AB’s. He finished with 20 homers but only 74 RBI’s and a slug under .400. At 34 he is unlikely to get better.

The same is probably true for Troy Tulowitzki. He put up good numbers for a SS, slashing .254/.318/.443 with 24 home runs, which would be great if he were batting 7th. But Tullo was brought over to be a middle of the order run producer. The Jays imagined he would continue to hit in the .300’s and slug in the .500’s; those days appear to be gone.

Hitting and Hoping

One player still in his prime and producing at an All-Star level is 3B Josh Donaldson. He hit .284, slugged .549, hit 37 homers and collected 99 RBI’s. Josh is still in his prime at 31 and will remain an elite player. He just needs more help.

To bolster the lineup, Toronto brought in Steve Pearce to offset the production lost from Michael Saunders. Saunders was much better in the first half than the second but still had over 550 plate appearances and hit 24 homers. Pearce is a part-time player who collected only 13 home runs in 2016.

The one player who might come back for one more monster season is Jose Bautista. It had to be both humbling and humiliating to return to the Blue Jays and the only way to avoid that fate this year is to put up big numbers. Bautista, at 36, is still capable of that.

But Father Time and recurring injuries are working against him and the rest of the team. Both Tullo and 2B/leadoff hitter Devon Travis missed significant playing time last year. This has been an on-going issue for Troy and will start to affect Joey Bats at some point sooner rather than later.

Anything is Possible

The Blue Jays, like the Orioles, are bleeding players, although they are using better band-aids. Their starting pitching is unyielding, but the offense is getting older and less productive, although they could have one more run in them.

If they do, it won’t be because of the farm system. Their top prospect, Vladimir Guerrero jr., is deep in the minors while their top pitching prospect, Sean Reid-Foley, has never pitched above Single-A. And since the Blue Jays are at the start of a rebuilding mode, they are unlikely to trade prospects.

They are going to be who they are: a good team that is slightly worse than last year.