These Yankees Are Primed for Major Breakouts in 2017

While many of the New York Yankees young stars had mixed results in 2016, fans should expect some big steps forward by these players next season.

For the first time in their recent history, the New York Yankees can reasonably expect to improve the following season just by standing pat. Since the end of the late 90’s dynasty, New York has consistently had one of the oldest clubs in baseball.

Each winter, they have attempted to offset the steady decline of their aging core by signing yet another former star on the wrong side of 30 who inevitably would become part of the problem within a few seasons (if not sooner).

The team’s disastrous collapses in 2013 and 2014 seemingly served as a wake up call to the front office that this couldn’t go on forever. Since then, general manager Brian Cashman has convinced ownership to begin to take the long view.

By hugging their draft picks and prospects tight the last two years, the Yankees have accumulated arguably the best collection of young talent in all of baseball. Fans got their first taste of what this group could do with the promotions of Luis Severino and Greg Bird in the second half of 2015, but the floodgates really opened following this year’s trade deadline.

The 2016 class of Baby Bombers definitely had its moments, but beyond valedictorian Gary Sanchez, there were few who solidified themselves as no-doubt MLB regulars going into next season.

During his recent end of season press conference, Cashman made it pretty clear that, aside from adding some pitching depth, the team will continue to lean heavily on its farm next year rather than looking for big name upgrades on the free agent or trade market.

So if the Yankees are going to make a run next season, it will be on the strength of breakouts from one or more of the following youngsters.

Bryan Mitchell

One of the Yankees most impressive pitching performances this spring came from 25-year-old righty Bryan Mitchell, who made a strong case to win the fifth starter’s job during the Grapefruit League, allowing just one earned run over 15.2 innings of work.

Three days after making the big league roster out of spring training for the first time in his young career, Mitchell suffered a fractured toe that would keep him out of game action for the first four months of the regular season.

With the Yankees running low on viable starters in September, the team turned to Mitchell despite the fact that he had made just two starts for Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre after being activated from the disabled list. Skipper Joe Girardi sounded very impressed with Mitchell’s repertoire before the young righthander made his 2016 debut in the Bronx.

He has a four-pitch mix. He has velocity, he has a cutter, a curveball and a changeup. I think he has a swing-and-miss curveball and also one that he can throw for strikes. If his stuff plays out as well as we think it can, and we’ve seen at times, I think he can be a pretty good starter.

Considering how much time he missed this year, Mitchell’s results were pretty solid in his five starts in the final month of the season, pitching to a 3.24 ERA and 4.23 FIP in 25 innings. There were some obvious signs of rust, of course. He ended up with more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) and never had more than 3 Ks in any appearance, but he showed excellent poise for his age on the mound, and battled through adversity admirably.

With a normal offseason to recover, Mitchell should show up next spring at full strength and a favorite to win of the team’s two open rotation jobs. He’ll compete with Luis Severino, Luis Cessa, and Chad Green.

Most fans think of Mitchell as more of a long reliever, but if he can harness his nasty stuff and limit the free passes, he could emerge as a solid mid-rotation guy next year. As long as he stays healthy, I’ll predict a 3.50 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 120 IP.

Aaron Judge

Only Mariners slugger Nelson Cruz had a higher average exit velocity than Aaron Judge among all MLB batters this season. He even finished ahead of perennial Statcast darling  and fellow baseball giant Giancarlo Stanton.

One look at Judge and it is not hard to see why he hits the ball harder than almost anyone else. Few players in history can match his raw size and strength. Here’s a look at him absolutely hammering the hardest hit ball by any Yankees player all season for a 436 foot homer, his fourth and final shot of the season before being shut down with an oblique injury:

Of course the downside of his tremendous size is that big league pitchers were able to find holes in his long swing. Judge will have to work to tighten up his mechanics this winter and make more contact, just as he did following his first stint in the International League in 2015.

Even if Judge cuts down his 44.2% strikeout rate to a still-very-high 25-30% this year, it isn’t hard to imagine the 24-year-old knocking 30 home runs, putting up a solid OBP, and playing average defense in right. That’s probably a 3-4 win player with the potential for even more growth down the road.

As awesome as Gary Sanchez was this year, I’m going to make the controversial prediction that in three years time, Judge is the Baby Bomber who is the bigger star for New York. He has further to go to get there, but the tools are just incredible.

Greg Bird

With all the exciting top prospects making their debut in 2016, it is really easy to forget that the Gary Sanchez of 2015, first baseman Greg Bird, is expected to be back with the big league club competing for a starting job next year after missing the regular season with a shoulder injury.

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Bird was New York’s best hitter down the stretch in 2015 following an August promotion (sound familiar?), batting .261/.343/.529 with 11 home runs and 31 RBI in 179 plate appearances while the team’s tired veterans limped to the finish line.

I try not to think about the fact that the Yankees could have had Bird hitting cleanup all year in place of the sub-replacement level performances by Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira if not for a fluke injury.

Still, what’s done is done, and it is encouraging to see the 23-year-old back in  the batter’s box, off to a hot start for the Scottsdale Scorpions of the Arizona Fall League. In his first two starts, Bird has gone a combined 3-for-8 with three doubles and two RBI. Of course, it is worth remembering that Bird is still rehabbing, and has yet to see game action in the field because he hasn’t yet cleared to throw at full strength.

While the status of Bird’s shoulder, especially his power, remains a major question mark for next year, especially early, I’m incredibly excited to see what he can do with a full season’s worth of at-bats. He’s the prototypical professional hitter who has raked all the way up the minor league ladder, and showed no signs of trouble adapting to the big leagues.

Next: What We Know About the Yankees Offseason Strategy

Is it too optimistic to expect a .260/.340/.450 line with 25 homers? I don’t think so.