Apr. 19, 2012; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Mariano Rivera (42) enters the game during the ninth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. Yankees won 7-6. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

A few hours after Mariano Rivera crumpled in pain on the warning track, as Alex Rodriguez looked on from behind the batting cage repeating the words “Oh, my God” over and over again, Joe Girardi confirmed everyone’s worst fears: After undergoing an MRI in Kansas City, Rivera was diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee. He’ll be getting a second opinion in New York, but should the re-evaluation confirm the tear, Rivera’s season will undoubtedly be over. And perhaps even his career as well.

There will be a lot of hyperbole from journalists, fans, and the sports media over the next few weeks about Mariano’s career, what he’s meant to the Yankees all these years, and if the team will be able to survive this injury. Some of it will be dramatic, and some of it will be warranted. Mariano, after all, has been nothing short of indispensable for the Yankees. He’s been remarkably durable over his 18-year career (last going on the disabled list in 2003), and he fooled us into thinking he was invincible.

An emotional Rivera told reporters after the game he’s not certain he will pitch again, saying:

“At this point I don’t know, I don’t know, we have to face this first. It all depends how the rehab is going to happen. From there, we’ll see.”

At the start of spring training, Rivera said he had decided whether or not he’d retire at the end of the season, and nothing could change his mind. He never publicly or officially declared he would retire, but most everyone could read between the lines. But ending his prolific career on the disabled list wouldn’t be right. So maybe this is something that could change his mind. It’s too soon to be asking those questions of him, what with a surgery and long rehabilitation ahead of him, but perhaps he’ll pitch another year if he wants to go out on his own terms.

If you feel like being positive about this instead of despondent (I’m leaning toward the latter), it’s good to remember that the bullpen is one of the strengths of this team. The closing duties will go to either Rafael Soriano, who has some experience in that role from his time with the Rays, or David Robertson. Girardi said he’d sleep on it, and I’m of the opinion that he can’t really go wrong with either one. Neither compares to Rivera, but I’m confident both are capable of handling the job.

I’m not breaking any news when I say that it’s completely devastating to lose Mo in the bullpen, and more than a little depressing to think it could be the last time we’ve seen him throw his infamous cutter. He’s the greatest closer in Major League Baseball history. He deserves a better ending than this.

You can follow Shawna (@shawnalent) and Yanks Go Yard (@YanksGoYardFS) on Twitter and “like” YGY on Facebook

March 20, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher

By now, Yankee fans are all aware that we won’t be seeing Michael Pineda on the mound until next season at the earliest. There have been a lot of fans and writers weighing in on the nature of his injury, offering their opinions on how long his rehab will take, if he’ll be as successful as he was with Seattle when (and if) he returns, whether or not Brian Cashman made the right move shipping Jesus Montero to the Mariners for the right-hander, and so on and so forth. Didn’t you know everyone becomes an expert when this kind of stuff happens?

It’s too soon to decide definitively if the Yankees were the losers in this trade. Most everyone prognosticating on this particular topic has no way of predicting for certain how Pineda’s shoulder will rebound. But on Friday, Jay Jaffe wrote an excellent, in-depth piece for Baseball Prospectus investigating pitchers who suffered labrum injuries in their careers and how they bounced back (or didn’t, as the case may be) post-surgery and rehabilitation. It’s a great read, and offers some insight into what Yankee fans can expect from Pineda going forward.

In total, Jaffe found 67 pitchers who went under the knife to repair their injured labrums —  some injuries more severe and others less so. Of those 67 pitchers, Jaffe identified three whose shoulder injuries were most comparable to Pineda’s: Anibal Sanchez, Jose Valverde, and Wade Miller.

The good news: Two of the three have had success in the major leagues since undergoing surgery. Valverde is racking up saves in Detroit, and Sanchez is off to a good start in Miami after two good seasons in a row. In four starts so far this season, he has posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 33/8 K/BB ratio in 26.1 innings. It’s worth noting, as Jaffe does, that Sanchez was the same age as Pineda (23) when he had the surgery.

The bad news: It took Sanchez 13 months to return to the majors following surgery, and his first season back – 2008 – wasn’t great. He also dealt with shoulder soreness in 2009, and only started 16 games that season. As for Miller, a solid starter for the Houston Astros in the early part of the decade? He wasn’t so lucky:

“As late as 2009, he was still on the comeback trail with the Blue Jays. He’s a grim comp, but due to the mileage that was already on his shoulder, perhaps he’s a less fitting one than the other two pitchers.”

The article isn’t what I would describe as encouraging, but it’s an interesting read, and highlights how this could go several different ways for Pineda and the Yankees.

You can follow Shawna (@shawnalent) and Yanks Go Yard (@YanksGoYardFS) on Twitter and “like” YGY on Facebook

Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

Only two players in the history of Major League Baseball have been able to collect 4,000 hits in their careers: Pete Rose (4,256) and Ty Cobb (4,189). Yesterday, a reporter asked Joe Girardi if he thinks Derek Jeter can reach the 4,000 hit milestone.

His response, courtesy of Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York:

“I think that is kind of crazy to think about. You are talking about five years of trying to get 200 hits, in a sense. It is less than that. I know that. I’m not ready to dive into that one yet.”

Jeter has totaled 3,105 hits. He needs 895 more to reach 4,000. To nitpick Girardi’s math, Jeter would need to average 179 hits per season over the next five years. Girardi’s right, though. It was only last season that Jeter reached 3,000, and it feels like members of the media are getting ahead of themselves here. Yankee fans will be celebrating Alex Rodriguez’s 3,000th hit before they celebrate Jeter’s 4,000th (if they ever get that chance).

But the question is being asked now because, despite the pre-season hysteria over Jeter’s age and poor first-half in 2011, he’s started this season fast out of the gate. He doesn’t look as old as he did last season, and he’s been one of the Yankees best offensive performers in the first 10 games (not saying much, considering the total ineptitude with RISP). Jeter, after 10 games, is batting .378 with a .404 OBP, three home runs, seven RBI, and four doubles.

There are some factors working in his favor on his quest to 4,000. He’s the active hits leader, hasn’t spent much time on the disabled list over his long career, has averaged about 1.27 hits/game in his career, and is no stranger to 200-hit seasons (he’s had seven in his career, the last one coming in 2009).

But 4,000 is not a foregone conclusion like 3,000 was, or like some fans expected it to be during Jeter’s heyday. He’s not getting any younger. He’ll be 38 in June, and 40 years old when the 3-year/$51 million contract he signed before the 2011 season ends. With age, of course, comes injuries and the slow, inevitable decline of an athlete. It’s unlikely he’ll be having too many more 200-hit seasons at this stage in the game. Last year was his lowest hit total (162) since his injury-shortened 2003 season.

To get a better idea of his chances, it’s best to compare him to the only other players who have accomplished it: Rose and Cobb. Rose was 37, the same age as Jeter, when he notched his 3,000^th hit in 1978. Cobb was 34 when he got his in 1921. Rose collected 1,092 hits from his age 38-45 seasons. Cobb, on the other hand, got 525 hits from the ages of 38-41. (It should also be noted that Rose and Cobb didn’t strike out quite as often as Derek does, either.)

It’s really a matter of how long Jeter plays. Rose stuck around the game much longer than I expect Jeter to — helped by the fact that he wasn’t a shortstop and transitioned to first base in his late 30s. Hard to imagine Jeter remaining as the full-time shortstop for the rest of his career. Will he even be getting enough plate appearances toward the end to have a shot at 179 hits each season? At some point, you have to figure he’ll be relegated to a utility role.

Ultimately, I think he’s going to finish just shy of 4,000 on his career, which is nothing to scoff at. Getting that many hits requires a lot of longevity, consistency, health, talent and a little bit of luck – all of which Jeter has had in abundance over his 18-year career.

You can follow Shawna (@shawnalent) and Yanks Go Yard (@YanksGoYardFS) on Twitter and “like” YGY on Facebook.

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE

Alternate title: Why did I spend my day off analyzing Chris Dickerson?

I don’t play fantasy baseball. My dad and two of his friends play Big Show Baseball, which is run by a former member of the Los Angeles Angels’ front office, and is essentially fantasy baseball on steroids. There are a lot of spreadsheets involved, a lot of discussions about linear weights, contracts, arbitration, and non-roster invites, and 6-hour drafts via conference call. I’m not officially involved with the team, but I am somewhat unofficially the Yankee scout. Meaning I attempt to answer any questions the three of them have about Yankee players or prospects (though not knowing the answer has happened more times than I’m willing to admit). The other day, after realizing their team possessed little depth in the outfield, they had a Yankee question:

“What about Chris Dickerson?”

Back in February, Dickerson, who was out of minor league options, was placed on waivers by the Yankees to make room on the 40-man. Most were convinced he’d be claimed by another team, but he managed to clear waivers. Which means he’s heading to Triple-A once spring training ends and will be stashed away in the minor leagues as a nice insurance policy for the Yankees.

Dickerson was an extra outfielder for the Yankees, a late-inning defensive replacement, and an occasional pinch-runner/hitter. He was useful enough, and I figured a handful of teams would be interested. A few teams off the top of my head that are short on depth in the outfield and could benefit from having Dickerson on their team: the Houston Astros, New York Mets, or Washington Nationals.

Dickerson obviously has his flaws. He isn’t a great baseball player. He’s not even a very good player. He doesn’t hit lefties, he owns a career strikeout rate of 26.1% (though he has a career walk rate of 11%), and a career .133 ISO indicates power isn’t his game. But he’s athletic, and has an upside many teams could get plenty use out of. He’s only amassed 582 plate appearances in four major league seasons — split between the Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and Yankees — but he’s a lefty who has hit right-handers well in his career, can play all three outfield positions, and brings some defense and decent speed to the table. He’s exactly what teams should want in a fourth outfielder – though he could probably be starting for a team like the Astros. Um, for the record, I could probably be starting for a team like the Astros.

His career line against right-handers over four seasons is .270/.355/.415 with a .341 wOBA. He offers respectable speed, and has been pretty successful at stealing bases in both the majors and minors. Over limited playing time in four major league seasons, Dickerson has stolen 24 bases in 30 attempts (an 80% success rate). In the minors, he stole 161 bases in 208 attempts (a success rate of 77%).

So, what about Chris Dickerson? I think he’s a great role player to have on a team, particularly if you’re looking for outfield depth. Unfortunately for Dickerson, he hasn’t gotten many opportunities to be a full-time player or even a platoon, in part due to injuries. The Yankees simply have no room for him on the roster, but I’m of the opinion that he deserves more of a shot to flourish in the majors, and it still remains surprising that he managed to clear waivers.

Take a quick glance at the Astros depth chart and tell me I’m wrong.

You can follow Shawna (@shawnalent) and Yanks Go Yard (@YanksGoYardFS) on Twitter and “like” YGY on Facebook.

Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

It’s only been two weeks, but I’m ready for spring training to be over and the regular season to start.

Don’t get me wrong: Baseball’s back, and it’s exciting. I understand the thrill that comes from new seasons, fresh starts, and seeing the guys back in uniform and on the field. Fans finally have games to watch, box scores to pore over, and radio broadcasts to listen to (a welcome addition to my day no matter how irritating John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman are).

But spring training isn’t the same. The circumstances are different. Starters are in and out of games before the 5th inning, and the quality of the lineups, pitching, and defense can vary each game. I’m going to need real baseball games back — and quick — for a couple reasons:

Spring Training brings out the worst in overreaction:

It goes a little something like this in the blogosphere and the New York papers: Alex Rodriguez had a 3-hit game and a home run off Roy Halladay, and if that doesn’t scream completely healthy and ready to have a huge season I don’t know what does. Ignore that he also had a good spring last year, because it doesn’t fit the narrative of his resurgence. Oh, and it’s time to worry about Robinson Cano, because, unlike Rodriguez, he isn’t hitting much. Remember the good old days when Miguel Cairo was the second baseman? Then there’s Michael Pineda’s velocity issues, which is a sure sign he’s going the way of 2011 Phil Hughes, and Brian Cashman probably made a mistake when he gave up Jesus Montero for this guy.

That is, of course, an exaggeration — albeit a slight one. I wasn’t surprised to see a few variations of the “Ivan Nova Bounces Back” headline after his start against the Red Sox last night. It’s just another example of one of the more frustrating things about spring training: the news and storylines that dominate baseball coverage in March. Both fans and the media are guilty of getting too worked up over the results of each game — good or bad. Too much importance is placed on four weeks worth of (limited) playing time, even though we all know spring training stats are largely insignificant and should be taken with a grain of salt.

The games aren’t completely meaningless, and spring training obviously has its uses  – players getting back into shape, getting their timing down, experimenting with new pitches or tweaking their mechanics, to name a few – but one thing it’s not is a sure-fire predictor of regular season performance for a team or an individual after 10 games.

On a somewhat similar note: Yes, it’s fun to keep tabs on prospects you don’t otherwise see too much of, but it’s entirely unnecessary to update me with a play-by-play of Zoilo Almonte’s at-bats, or stress yourself out over how many runs Adam Miller gives up in one inning of work.

There are no surprises coming out of Tampa in April:

Besides David Robertson’s injury scare, nothing too exciting has happened at Yankee camp this spring – and that’s a good thing. I’m not saying I’d prefer the Yankees to have lingering questions or huge weaknesses that went unaddressed in the offseason, but we know what to expect when Opening Day rolls around on April 6. And even though that’s preferable, it can take a little bit out of the fun out of it, because there isn’t much in the way of a battle for a position or spot on the major-league roster. The rotation is essentially set – with the exception of the pitching order and the “exciting” race between Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes for the 5^th starter’s spot. Joe Girardi did try and convince us that Pineda didn’t have a guaranteed spot in the rotation, but I don’t know anyone with two brain cells who buys that.

Short of any injuries, the 25-man roster is good to go and the bullpen nearly finalized — the only real question being who gets the last spot in the pen, and whether or not it will be another lefty to complement Boone Logan.

Essentially, I spend the entire winter complaining about a lack of baseball, and then spend the entire duration of spring training complaining about the lack of meaningful games. I love that Major League Baseball is back, but I’m ready for Opening Day.

Now that’s something to get excited about.

You can follow Shawna (@shawnalent) and Yanks Go Yard (@YanksGoYardFS) on Twitter and “like” YGY on Facebook.

March 4, 2012; Tampa Bay, FL, USA; New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez (13) at bat against the Philadelphia Phillies during a spring training game at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Joel Sherman wrote an interesting story for the New York Post yesterday about a new strength and conditioning program Alex Rodriguez started in the offseason. Rodriguez spent the winter working out with Dr. Mike Clark, CEO of the National Academy of Sports Medicine, and now travels with a member of Clark’s staff every day throughout spring training.

Clark, according to the article, believes in “treating the body globally, rather than locally.” In a nutshell: Instead of targeting and treating a specific, isolated injury, the program works to identify weaknesses in other areas of the body – in Rodriguez’s case, his right big toe, left ankle, right knee and right hip – which are putting extra stress on his body and leading to injuries elsewhere.

As Sherman notes:

“It is a chicken-and-egg argument what came first, but all feed upon each other to create a domino effect of wear, tear and pain. They also helped cause, in Clark’s estimation, an impingement in Rodriguez’s left shoulder. A result of the lack of movement here and instability there was a swing that had lost some range and power.”

It’s an interesting read and provides some great detail – particularly when Clark highlights that Rodriguez had a 27-degree range of motion in his right big toe, and 70 is the ideal. This, he says, caused stress on his knee and hips when he was swinging. His knee and hip, of course, being two of his more prominent injuries in the past four years.

Rodriguez is looking to bounce back from last year, which was one of the worst seasons — if not the worst — of his career. And he’s off to a pretty decent start, considering there was no shortage of coverage about whether his 3-for-3 performance at the plate Sunday was a foreshadowing of what 2012 will bring for the third baseman and Yankee clean up hitter.

It’s silly to put that much stock into three at-bats, but maybe the combination of a new workout program and an experimental knee procedure will keep Rodriguez healthy and productive this year. As easy as it is to pick on the man, he really should be commended in this situation (and this one) for working hard to rebound from a poor season and looking for new ways to keep injuries and age at bay at the age of 36.

I don’t think three at-bats merited the countless stories that have been written in the past 24 hours about his “resurgence,” and no one has any idea of knowing whether this workout program will make a difference, but I do hope he has a big year – for the team’s sake, and for his.

Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

The Yankees haven’t yet signed Raul Ibanez to be a left-handed bat off the bench, but it’s been rumored the team is in discussions with the free agent. Let it be known: I despise this idea. Ibanez, who will be 40 years old in June, is a replacement-level player at this point in his career. His -0.4 WAR last season indicates as much.

He’s useless against left-handers, and isn’t exactly tearing up the league against righties, either. Last year, he hit .256/.307/.440 against them with an OPS of .747 and a .322 wOBA. All that means is he was less productive than Jorge Posada, who had an .814 OPS and .353 wOBA against righties last season.

He might benefit from the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium, and he has some pop left, but it’s worth noting Ibanez hit an appalling .210/.261/.317 with a .577 OPS on the road last season. Not to mention, he offers little to no defensive value at any position, only walked 33 times in 575 plate appearances, and his .289 OBP hovered in Alfonso Soriano territory.

Is it possible that his 2011 campaign was an anomaly? Sure, but if I had to make an educated guess, I’d venture to say there are no bounce back seasons on the horizon for the veteran.

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There’s a growing consensus that the Yankees can make due in the DH spot with Andruw Jones facing lefties and a revolving door of veterans switching off a couple times a week. And it’s mostly true. It wouldn’t be the end of the world starting the season without someone to platoon with Jones – Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira figure to get at-bats there against lefties, and Alex Rodriguez against righties. Teixeira’s OPS against RHP last year was .779 compared to .967 against LHP. His career splits aren’t as drastic, so if Kevin Long and Teixeira can fix this that gives the Yankees even more of an advantage.

But rotating old man infield — and occasionally Nick Swisher or Curtis Granderson — through the DH spot means more appearances on the field from Jones and the defensively challenged Eduardo Nunez. And to maximize both the defense and the offense it’s best to keep Rodriguez, Jeter, and Teixeira on the field as often as possible. Since we’re all in agreement that Jones shouldn’t be hitting against righties – he had an OPS of .709 against them last year in 76 plate appearances (seems like 76 too many) – the Yankees would be a better club by having an option on the bench who can hit right-handers.

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Full disclosure: I used to be one of those fans who railed against steroid usage; I hated it, and I believed that every player caught (or even players I suspected of using PEDs) should be banned from the Hall of Fame. The idea of a plaque in Cooperstown recognizing Barry Bonds as the all-time home run king upset me more than it probably should have. But then, in 2009, Alex Rodriguez admitted to using steroids for a period of three years while playing for the Texas Rangers.

And now I’ve completely flip-flopped on the issue. If I had a ballot, Rodriguez would be on mine. As would Bonds and McGwire and Roger Clemens.

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