Yankees Offseason Trade Target: Cardinals Starter Jaime Garcia

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the few MLB clubs with excess starting pitching, so the New York Yankees could probably pry loose lefty Jaime Garcia after a disappointing season.

The fact that there was apparently some debate in the St. Louis Cardinals organization about picking up Jaime Garcia’s $12 million could indicate that he’s viewed as expendable this offseason. He’s only one season removed from being the type of front-of-the-rotation talent the New York Yankees desperately need, so it would be worth taking a long look at his medicals and mechanics, to assess the reasons behind his disappointing 2016 season.

Back in September, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Cardinals shopped Garcia at the August 1st trade deadline this year. Alex Reyes took over the veteran’s spot in the rotation after a rough finish to the season (5.60 ERA in last 70.2 IP), and it doesn’t appear that the Card’s would have room for Garcia in their starting five to begin next year either barring injury.

Even with a repeat of his 2016 performance, Garcia could conceivably be an upgrade for the back of the Yankees rotation. He threw 171.2 IP over 30 starts, pitching to a 4.67 ERA while striking out 20.2% of batters, walking 7.7%, and posting an excellent 56.7% ground ball rate.

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His 3.77 xFIP suggests he may have been the victim of some bad luck. 20.2% of the flyballs he allowed carried for home runs, so if that returns to something close to his 11.5% career average, his run prevention numbers might not be so ugly next year.

Just one year before, Garcia pitched to a 2.43 ERA and 3.36 xFIP in 129.2 innings pitched. His strikeout and walk rates were not remarkably different from his 2016 numbers, the big difference was a big jump in long balls allowed this year.

Garcia seemed to get worse as the season wore on this season, and it’s possible that fatigue played a role in his struggles. The 171.2 frames he threw this season were the second most of his career, and easily his most since 2011. It’s possible that the strength he built up by putting together a full season could help him return to his previous levels of success in 2017.

Like many pitchers, the biggest drawback with acquiring Garcia is the potential for injuries. He’s had a number of serious issues over the years, including Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgery, but did manage to get through this year unscathed. On a one year deal it is probably safe to roll the dice as long as his physical doesn’t turn up anything scary.

With the Cardinals in need of a true centerfielder and leadoff hitter, a swap of Garcia for Brett Gardner makes all the sense in the world. The move would save the Yankees a little money in 2018 when they plan to get under the luxury tax, shore up their uncertain rotation for this season, and open up a spot for Clint Frazier. Aaron Hicks is perfectly capable of holding down left until Big Red shows he’s ready.

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Garcia isn’t a perfect fit, because ideally the Yankees are looking for pitchers who are controlled long term. Bringing him on board would give them a fourth starter who is set to hit free agency after 2017, although New York has plenty of time to explore extensions if they are so inclined.