How Much Would the Yankees Spend to Land Shohei Otani?

The New York Yankees are once again unlikely to spend big on the free agent market, but they would almost certainly make an exception for 22-year-old Japanese righthander Shohei Otani.

While the New York Yankees desperately need to add at least one quality starting pitcher this winter if they are to have any hope of competing next year, none of the arms available on the free agent market are great fits for them as they focus on getting younger. Of course, that could change instantly if Japanese superstar Shohei Otani decides to pursue a move to MLB this offseason.

To be clear, there are no signs that Otani’s club is considering posting their best player anytime soon. When MLB put a $20 million cap on posting fees for NPB players, they removed all incentive for Japanese organization’s to sell their elite talents to the highest bidder. Otani is worth far more than $20 million to the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

Still, there has long been rumors that Otani has a handshake agreement with his club that they will allow him to make the transition to the United States when he decides he wants to do so. With the thin free agent class this year, and several big market clubs hungry for starting pitchers, Otani might be able to land the biggest contract of any pitcher in history if he were to hit free agency in the next few months.

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At the moment, the top two starting pitchers on the market are Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson. Hill is 36 and hasn’t topped 120 innings since 2007. Hellickson is coming off a nice year with the Phillies, but was a well below average starter the previous three seasons. To reiterate, that pair are far and away the best free agent starters available. Otani would essentially have zero competition this offseason.

In 140 innings of work this year for the Fighters, Otani has a 1.86 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9. He has a five pitch repertoire which is highlighted by an upper-90s fastball that was been clocked as high as 101 mph, which tied the NPB record. He also throws a slider, splitter, changeup, and curve.

MLB scouts got a good look at Otani when the Nippon-Ham Fighters held their spring training in Arizona this season. I have yet to find anyone who saw him who didn’t come away believing he would be a frontline starter in the big leagues right now.

Intriguingly, Otani was also one of the NPB’s best hitters in 2016, hitting .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs and seven steals in 382 plate appearances. He’s consistently expressed a desire to be a two-way player, and has even suggested that the ability to do that could play a role in his decision of whether he makes the jump to MLB.

It is extremely unlikely any major league club would allow him to do that after investing the kind of money it will take to land him, but it could give the Yankees an edge in future negotiations if they were willing to give him some DH time, at least as an experiment.

So just how much would the Yankees need to shell out for the 22-year-old flamethrower if he did decide to make himself available this winter? He would have a strong case to land the biggest financial commitment ever to a pitcher, assuming his medicals checked out.

At the moment, Clayton Kershaw ($215 million), Max Scherzer ($210 million), and Zack Greinke ($206.5 million) have the top three biggest guarantees ever given to a pitcher. Otani likely wouldn’t be able to match their $30 million-plus annual value, but he could make up for that with the length of the deal because of his age.

If I had to guess, a 10 year $220 million deal sounds about right. A bidding war between the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, and others would almost certainly erupt. New York definitely has the financial advantage to outbid their competitors, but would Hal Steinbrenner be willing to cut a check that big?

Next: New York Yankees 2016 Season Awards

The Yankees gave Masahiro Tanaka a seven year $155 million before the 2014 season. Otani is three years younger than Tanaka was and arguably has a higher ceiling. Remember that Tanaka was not necessarily thought of as an ace. In addition, the price of pitching has skyrocketed over the past three years. With inflation alone, Otani seems likely to surpass $200 mil.