Who Will Step Up as the Yankees Number Two Starter Next Year?
The New York Yankees rotation has plenty of potential, but none of their starters this year has stepped up and established themselves as a dependable number two behind ace Masahiro Tanaka.
The collapse of the Yankees offense in 2016 came as much less of a surprise than the mediocre performance of their starting pitching this year. The offense largely revolved around three aging sluggers who had miraculously healthy and productive seasons the year before, along two brittle table-setters who look to be right on the edge of a precipitous decline.
The rotation, on the other hand, appeared to me to be full of promise. All five of the team’s starters had under-performed their “true talent” in my estimation in 2015 and several of them looked like breakout candidates.
Instead, the Yankees have gotten through the year with only one truly reliable above-average starter. They have a clear number one starter, but the rest of their guys have performed like number four or five types (at best). Can any of their disappointing starters reverse course and fulfill the high-hopes many had for them next year?
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Coming into the year, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda both seemed like guys whose results on the mound haven’t matched their stuff to date, at least not consistently, and seemed ready to take a big step forward. Big Mike’s 4.37 ERA in 2015 was more than a run higher than his 3.34 FIP. Unfortunately, that has not changed this season, with a very similar split between his 4.89 ERA and 3.62 FIP.
Eovaldi’s numbers were nearly identical last year, with a 4.20 ERA and 3.42 FIP in 2015. The elbow injury may have contributed to breaking the trend, as he put up an ugly 4.76 ERA and 4.96 before going under the knife this season.
Nasty Nate seemed to me like the most likely to emerge as the Robin to Tanaka’s Batman long-term. He had the flashy heater of a front-line guy and put together two very strong months in the second half of 2015. Obviously the odds of him fulfilling his potential, at least in a Yankees uniform, got a lot longer with him missing 2017.
Pineda’s 2016 season has been incredibly impressive in certain respect. He continues to be a sublime strikeout artist, leading all qualified starters with 10.6 K/9 as of this writing. 175 of his 195 strikeouts this year have come swinging. His slider is one of the best finishers in the game when he is locating it.
There are a variety of possible explanations that have been floated about his struggles. He often gets beat up with two strikes or two outs, leading to speculation that he loses focus or, alternatively, struggles under pressure. He’s also prone to hanging sliders occasionally and missing his spots within the zone, which can lead to big hits at opportune times.
Pineda and Eovaldi are the perfect example of New York’s recent strategy of collecting big, hard throwing, strikeout guys whose run prevention doesn’t match their pure stuff. None of these projects have really panned out well to date, so it’s worth wondering if a change in philosophy is necessary.
Luis Severino was another strong candidate to emerge as the Yankees number two starter this season, although at this point he may not even remain in the rotation going forward. Unless he finds a way to begin throwing his changeup consistently and effectively, he won’t be able to turn over a lineup multiple times with his two-pitch arsenal.
Technically CC Sabathia is also in this discussion, as he was arguably New York’s second-best starter for a good chunk of the season. With a 104 ERA+, Sabathia was actually an above-average MLB starter this season, just barely.
However, CC has been one of the worst starters in baseball the previous three years, is entering his age 36 season, and still possesses a degenerative knee condition. If he’s the Yankees second-best starter next year, something probably went very wrong.
Call me jaded, but if I had to guess, the New York Yankees number two starter in 2017 is not yet on the roster. There have been rumors of general manager Brian Cashman targeting a controllable young starting pitcher since last winter.
Next: Five Reasons to Be Excited About the 2017 Yankees
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